Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

The media's coronation of Romney seems to be finally paying dividends. Ugh. Not that it matters *cough* South Carolina *cough*.

I think it more Gingrich slumping than Romney surging.

[J. J.]

Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

And it is becoming a two man race.

[J. J.]

Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

If you think that Romney's money-soaked campaign is disgusting, you must have been really upset over how Obama absolutely drowned McCain in 2008 in terms of ads and campaign spending. Right?

No. The two aren't comparable, as I explained to JJ.

Only the dreams of total hypocrisy, Lief.

[J. J.]

Looks like it's over then. At least we stopped Romney from sweeping all 50 states.

Don't loose hope! Remember when we thought it was over when he won New Hampshire?

Who said that.  I was saying SC would be the crucial one.

I don't yet think it is over.  Maybe by the Ides of March.

[J. J.]

Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)

Probably a measure of momentum.

[J. J.]

Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)

Probably a measure of momentum.

NONE OF THE THINGS YOU SAY ACTUALLY MEAN THINGS.

Alcon, the rise in Romney's numbers is probably a reaction to his win in Florida, his momentum from winning that state.  This effect has been around since before you were born.

[J. J.]

Gallup decided not to update today...

Apparently all there pollsters are counting votes in Nevada.

[J. J.]

Newtmentum Mark III

Whack-a-Mole Mark III 

[J. J.]

LOL santorum.

Romney 36% (+1)
Santorum 22% (-1)
Gingrich 17% (+1)
The guy who is yet to win anything 10% (-1)

I think the Whack-a-Mole will be making an appearance, if not this week, then the next.

[J. J.]

Bets on when Gingrich overtakes Santorum?

Thursday.

[J. J.]

Santorum isn't going up that much, however.

[J. J.]

Santorum isn't going up that much, however.

Two points in one day in a 5-day tracking poll is pretty big movement.

It's not a straight shift to Santorum.  A 6 point drop versus a 2 point increase?

[J. J.]

You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

Until they look at the numbers.

Romney was down double digits in OH last week, and was suppose to lose OK and TN by double digits.

I think Saturday could end up being more important than we all think.

[J. J.]

Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

From 11 points behind last week, no.

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

[J. J.]

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?

[J. J.]

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He finished third in Tennessee, third in Oklahoma and fourth (dead last), in Alaska and North Dakota.

He's done.

I don't know about "replacing" Santorum, but I expect Santorum to have a rough ten days or so.

[J. J.]

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?

Carpetbombing your opponents with negative ads?

That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

[J. J.]

Here's the other thing I love: "Hey, we were down by double digits and came back to win it!"

Uh. Ok. If it's bad that you barely won, why would you think that pointing out your past deficits is making a good point? Sure, you made it up but you should have never been in that position to begin with. At least not as supporters of Mr. Super Organized Electable Frontrunner.

That's a bit like complaining that the archbishop didn't show up for the coronation.  

Since SC, I've expected a long race.

I never expected either Santorum or Romney to win IA or come in second.  The only time to shut the process down was SC.

[J. J.]

That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.

Well, considering that Santorum had been actively campaigning in Iowa for months and Romney hadn't, no.  Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

As for Newt, he just needed geography and CNN, though he played the second very well.  And let's not forget the endorsement from Perry.

[J. J.]

That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.

Well, considering that Santorum had been actively campaigning in Iowa for months and Romney hadn't, no.  Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quite a few polls from October and earlier in which Romney is 20 points ahead of Santorum.

And while Romney didn't campaign as much in Iowa as Santorum did, he did campaign there quite a bit in the month before the caucus, and massively outspent Santorum on TV ads, GOTV, etc.

None with a 20 point lead; much of the time, Romney was below 20 points.  And, in a caucus, it is the organization on the ground.

[J. J.]

Five of those polls had Romney over +20 on Santorum.  Good lord, J. J.

Alcon, that was the question.  How many show a 20 point lead for Romney over Santorum?

[J. J.]

Five of those polls had Romney over +20 on Santorum.  Good lord, J. J.

Alcon, that was the question.  How many show a 20 point lead for Romney over Santorum?

You have some reading comprehension problems...

That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.

None.  Unless someone is suggesting Santorum was in negative numbers (and I'd like to see that), you can't get a 20 point lead for most of those polls.  Those polls where Romney was above 20 points, Santorum was also polling above zero. 

You want make the point that Santorum was 20 (actually 25) behind the leader, yes he was, but not Romney.  Romney was 15 points behind the leader as well (a different leader).

[J. J.]

MENSA admission standards are very low, it seems. I guess even Palin could get in.

Definitely above the standards here.

[J. J.]

MENSA admission standards are very low, it seems. I guess even Palin could get in.

Definitely above the standards here.

Don'try to flatter yourself.

Since you seem to think that there can be negative numbers on a poll, I'm not.  It isn't like debt; you can't have a negative number.

[J. J.]

CNN/Time poll: Oct. 25: Romney 24%, Santorum 2%
University of Iowa poll: Oct. 19: Romney 27% Santorum 3%
Marist College poll: Oct. 5: Romney 26% Santorum 3%

Alright, JJ....I'll explain it like I would in third grade so that even you will understand:

Let's take the first poll listed from CNN/Time. Romney is polling at 24%. Santorum is polling at 2%. The difference between 24 and 2 is GREATER than 20. Therefore, Santorum is MORE than 20 points behind Romney.

Repeat the same operation with the other polls, calculating the difference between Romney and Santorum, and you will find that in each of these examples, Santorum is trailing Romney by more than 20%.

Get it?

Okay, and was Romney leading at either of these points.

Also Alcon, I'm not sure that on some of those early ones, Santorum was campaigning or that Santorum was actually included.  It didn't show up, even as a zero, on some of the charts.