GA: Survey USA: Romney & Gingrich with moderate lead over Obama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Georgia President by Survey USA on 2011-12-08

Summary: D: 42%, R: 48%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Looks about right. Obama's floor should be about 45% there.

If you factor in the undecideds, you are at about 45-47% support. Not bad.

[memphis]

Obama's not winning GA. Put the 16 EV in the GOP column and move on. The margin is unimportant.

[Tender Branson]

Crosstabs have just appeared on the SUSA page, if anyone's interested:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9f7c5d5d-4d53-4675-af4b-65290e7797d2

[Eraserhead]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

[cavalcade]

Even in Newt's quasi-home state he does just as well as Romney in the general.

[memphis]

Even in Newt's quasi-home state he does just as well as Romney in the general.

Makes a lot of sense. Weaker candidate does as well as stronger candidate in weak cadidate's home state. Gingrich would probably do no worse than Romney in WV, KY, TN, AR, MS, LA, AL, and GA. Thing is, all those states are GOP locks anyway. It wouldn't matter.

[Bacon King]

Crosstabs have just appeared on the SUSA page, if anyone's interested:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9f7c5d5d-4d53-4675-af4b-65290e7797d2

-I'm very glad to see the TSPLOST (transportation sales tax; it'll be on the ballot in the summer) polling at 55%, and even getting 45% support from Tea Partiers. That definitely bodes well.

-55% support legalizing casinos; very interesting! Why do old people hate horse race betting, though?

-Mitt Romney's favorables are pretty close to Cain's, lol

[© tweed]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

it's basically the same for Romney

[Eraserhead]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

it's basically the same for Romney

Romney isn't from Georgia though.

[© tweed]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

it's basically the same for Romney

Romney isn't from Georgia though.

he has won statewide in GA the exact same amount of times as has Gingrich.

[memphis]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

it's basically the same for Romney

Romney isn't from Georgia though.

he has won statewide in GA the exact same amount of times as has Gingrich.

Romney came within a few percent of winning the GA GOP primary in 2008

[Eraserhead]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

it's basically the same for Romney

Romney isn't from Georgia though.

he has won statewide in GA the exact same amount of times as has Gingrich.

So because he hasn't won a race statewide, he shouldn't be expected to get a home state boost in a general election? How do you explain him getting 65% in the GOP primary if his ties to the state are as tenuous as you suggest?

[pbrower2a]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

They look horrible, indeed. Gingrich should be very well known in Georgia and have a far bigger lead.

[Roemerista]

Those general election numbers are horrible for Gingrich.

They look horrible, indeed. Gingrich should be very well known in Georgia and have a far bigger lead.

Being very well known in Georgia is why he doesn't have a fair bigger lead.

[Devils30]

It might get very close if Gingrich blows up but still think he'll pull out a win in his home state. Obama will spend more resources in Florida and North Carolina

[Bacon King]

Gingrich has no "home state effect"- voters in West Georgia don't care that he was their congressman twenty years ago, and voters north of Atlanta don't care that he was their congressman for three terms after he parachuted districts in the nineties.

The only people in Georgia who really care about Gingrich these days are the longtime Republican activists, who remember the instrumental role he played in building up the GOP here. These are the 10-15% who were still doggedly supporting him when Cain, then Perry, then Cain again, were leading the polls here. Subtract them and you'd have Gingrich at 50% or so, right around where he's at in other "Anti-Romney" states.

Gingrich and Romney polling evenly against Obama isn't surprising because, like I said, the only Georgians who give Gingrich anything resembling a "home state effect" are the die-hard Republicans who will be voting against Obama no matter what.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney atleast for his narrow margin in GA, is also tied/competative in virtually every swing state. He is not a regional candidate. He is at best a demographic candidate that happens to appeal to non-jmfcst but also not quite Torie group of middle to high income Republicans somewhat at the expense of the low income crowd. Outside of Alphretta, Marietta and some other other high scale Atlanta Suburbs, GA is a low income GOP state. It makes sense that a less polarizing candidate would cause a reduction in the margins for states both red and blue. Three things would keep states like Georgia in line for Mittens, Obama, Huckabee (as either a surrogate or a VP) and ah, what was the third one..ah.... yea.... I can't, I'm sorry. .


Gingrich is more of a regional candidate in that alteast all or parts of two regions of the country are a non-starter for him (The NE and West Coast), the places where his caucus got butchered in the 1990's. The only difference now is that CO and NV can be grouped as part of that block of Western Democratic states. He was a noted Social conservative and thus should be able to evoke passion from the base he stoked so successfully in the 1980's in those special order speeches on the house floor, on C-span. He should do significantly better than Romney here as a result.