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April 21, 2019, 07:05:40 pm
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Keyboard Jacobinism)
  Israeli election and demographic maps (search mode)
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Author Topic: Israeli election and demographic maps  (Read 52708 times)
ag
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« on: March 04, 2015, 02:01:21 pm »

Can there be a stable-for-Israel government out of this election that does not contain both Likud and Labor?  Looking at the numbers, I'm having trouble coming up with a Likud government with over 66ish seats, and a government with 61-65 seats is implausible.

Likud can't invite in the Arabs or the fascists, Meretz won't join, and he can have either the Haredi parties or Yesh Atid but not both. There's no obvious Likud coalition that isn't a grand coalition with Labor plus Kulanu, the Haredi, and Jewish Home and maybe Lieberman.

Likud will happily invite Yachad, though they may go through the motions of asking Marzel personally to stay out. And, in any case, you only need 61 - nothing at all implausible about that. The only objection is that Netanyahu likes being in the center of his cabinet, while in this case he will be pretty far to the left. But, frankly, hard for me to see the argument he can make to have any Labor leader to accept being second fiddle to him. The grand coalition would have to, at least, involve alternation, and it is hard to see why would Netanyahu prefer that to having a smaller coalition.

Should it be in the other thread, though?
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ag
YaBB God
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Posts: 12,872


« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2016, 08:57:54 pm »

I'm a bit late, but is it not a little surprising that the towns on the edge of the Gaza strip went for the Zionist Union?

I would have thought they would be strongly Likud given the rocket attacks and, I believe, a demographic that is largely Sephardi Jews, who tend to be reliably conservative.
All those Zionist Union places near Gaza are mostly Ashkenazi Kibbutzim or Moshvim and not towns, all the urban places in the area went heavily for the right. Being next to Gaza has little effect, demographics are far more important.
Not exactly Ashkenazi, the Meretz Kibbutzim there are mostly Argentinians and other south americans  Wink

Makes sense, considering why they, actually, left Argentina. But, yeah, they are Ashkenazi.
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ag
YaBB God
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Posts: 12,872


« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2016, 07:42:45 pm »


Not exactly Ashkenazi, the Meretz Kibbutzim there are mostly Argentinians and other south americans  Wink

Most South American Jews are Ashkenazi.
Ethnically, they're not Ashkenazi in customs and such from what I saw. But this comment was basically a pun
Argentinian Jews, mostly, come from Ukraine and the like. They might drink mate and understand Ladino (well, I understand it as well Smiley - every Spanish speaker does), but they are generally as Ashkenazi as anybody. Different for Mexican Jews: here it is a mixture of different communities. But I am still to meet an Argentinian sefard Smiley
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