PPP/DailyKos: Obama+8 against Gingrich

[pbrower2a]

This is what an 8-point difference between Obama and Gingrich would look like in 2012:

Obama 53%
Gingrich 45%
third parties 2% altogether

Obama    382  EV
Gingrich   156 EV

(Shades represent gaps in voting and not raw amounts -- 20% color for less than a 5% margin,  40% color for a margin over 5% but less than 10%, and 70% color for a margin greater than 10%). Arizona goes into play solely because it has nobody running from the state this time.

This assumes that statewide polarization is roughly as it was in 2008 (no reversion to the mean which would make things look  less severe in the shading but turn more states over to President Obama.   

[pbrower2a]

... and so goes the assumption that Newt Gingrich is an astute operator.

Before even a primary is underway, a likely 53-45 gap against an incumbent looks unpromising -- and it stands to get worse. Gingrich has never run for any statewide office, so even without the political baggage he has the same weakness that Gerald Ford had running for the first time for President -- not knowing how to use the vast resources of a campaign, including his campaign appearances effectively. He will be running against an incumbent who ran an airtight campaign apparatus and was a superb campaigner.

Gerald Ford at the least wasn't running against an incumbent President.