PA: Muhlenberg College: Obama beats Romney & Gingrich

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Maybe the GOP war on labor has finally woken up the WWC. Obama can stand to make massive gains in SW PA.

Very  much doubt it. Obama is going to gain among Romney supporters with a Gingrich nomination. He'll continue to extend the Dem swing in SE suburbs.

[memphis]

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Its a joke college poll with a horrible track record, but the lefties here want to pretend that it has some validity.

Fayette voted for Toomey over Sestak. The GOP trend that started in Westmoreland has spread to the entire SW. It's not just an anti-obama like the mental midgets out on DA INTERWEBZ! want to pretend. Its actually an anti-democrat thing that has been growing in the SW.

Obama isn't going to win Fayette. The GOP nominee will improve on McCain's numbers there.

I love it how "trends" only work one way on this board, and they are ALWAYS INEVITABLEZ!!! if they favor Democrats. They never work the other way.

I have news for you, SW Pennsylvania is a place where the trend is in favor of the GOP and has been for some time.

Oh, not all trends favor Democrats. Missouri is no longer a pure tossup, and I'm skeptical of those who claim Texas is becoming competitive. The Dakotas, in addition, have always been Republican but are becoming more consistently partisan at a congressional level. Southwestern Pennsylvania has certainly trended against us--no way Obama will win Westmoreland except against Bachmann.

In addition, Democrats still do well in the region at a local level--look at the statehouse. Two of the three non-Pittsburgh districts still send Democrats to Congress, and Sestak, despite losing Fayette and Greene (along with the state), did better than Obama (who won by 11 points), and in a uniform swing to a Sestak win he would have won both.

The places that are trending Dem are doing so because they are becoming less white. This is not the case in SW PA.

[memphis]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Its a joke college poll with a horrible track record, but the lefties here want to pretend that it has some validity.

Fayette voted for Toomey over Sestak. The GOP trend that started in Westmoreland has spread to the entire SW. It's not just an anti-obama like the mental midgets out on DA INTERWEBZ! want to pretend. Its actually an anti-democrat thing that has been growing in the SW.

Obama isn't going to win Fayette. The GOP nominee will improve on McCain's numbers there.

I love it how "trends" only work one way on this board, and they are ALWAYS INEVITABLEZ!!! if they favor Democrats. They never work the other way.

I have news for you, SW Pennsylvania is a place where the trend is in favor of the GOP and has been for some time.

Oh, not all trends favor Democrats. Missouri is no longer a pure tossup, and I'm skeptical of those who claim Texas is becoming competitive. The Dakotas, in addition, have always been Republican but are becoming more consistently partisan at a congressional level. Southwestern Pennsylvania has certainly trended against us--no way Obama will win Westmoreland except against Bachmann.

In addition, Democrats still do well in the region at a local level--look at the statehouse. Two of the three non-Pittsburgh districts still send Democrats to Congress, and Sestak, despite losing Fayette and Greene (along with the state), did better than Obama (who won by 11 points), and in a uniform swing to a Sestak win he would have won both.

The places that are trending Dem are doing so because they are becoming less white. This is not the case in SW PA.

Ah, forgot about the massive Hispanic influx in northern New England.

Northern New England is obviously a special case and marches to the beat of its own drum.

[memphis]

I agree that Texas has too many moving parts to get a good sense of what's gonna happen. In addition to the prior points, you also have a GOP home state effect in several previous cycles. Hispanics are obviously the key demographic. The GOP has no room for improvement left among whites. They're already winning 75% or so of them. And on the other foot, the blacks aren't going anywhere also. Obama has overseen a rough time for Hispanics, but the GOP is not appealing to them either. Still, I think Obama will improve over 2008, but still lose solidly in the Lone Star State. If TX were ever to be in play the GOP may as well retire.