Alberta 2012

[Smid]

I've put together a map of Alberta provincial ridings, following the 2010 redistribution.

I was thinking of trying to calculate notional margins but I would prefer someone else to - I'm still going with the new Quebec map and I'd like to prioritise that rather than estimate margins. I'm particularly interested in Northeastern Calgary - it looks to me like some of the more Liberal polls have been split up and may reduce the margin or flip them to PC. I think the NDP may notionally pick up an Edmonton riding off PC, too.

Anyway, hopefully everyone will find this blank base map of Alberta provincial riding boundaries helpful. As always, there is a bigger version in the blank map gallery.

Alberta Provincial Election Map

[Smid]

Here are maps showing the 2008 Alberta provincial election results. I'm posting from my mobile, so I'll apologise in advance for spreading them over several posts. Again, they're all uploaded into the gallery, so bigger versions in there.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map

[Smid]

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Winning Margins




Bigger version in the gallery. The redistribution obviously changes some of the riding boundaries.

[Smid]

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - PC Primary Vote




Bigger version in the gallery.

Some of the strongest results for the Progressive Conservative Party were in rural ridings outside Edmonton, I don't think Wildrose contested those ridings, but I could be wrong - we'll see in another few maps.

[Smid]

The Liberal Party won the second-most seats in the legislature at the 2008 election:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Liberal Primary Vote

[Smid]

The NDP won two seats in Edmonton:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - NDP Primary Votes




Again, a bigger version is in the gallery.

[Smid]

The Wildrose Alliance didn't run in every seat, but still performed reasonably well. Since the election, there have been a few defections from the PC Party to the Wildrose Alliance.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - WRA Primary Vote

[Smid]

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Greens Primary Vote



Bigger version in the gallery (again).

[Smid]

I'll fix the new map to reflect Wildrose = green and Greens = doesn't exist, when I'm back from holidays after New Year's (minimal access to a computer in the interim).

I remember that about the Greens now, I was reading that their President at the time is now a Wildrose candidate...

[Smid]

A great strategist who will be able to maximise the Wildrose vote. His close relationship with Harper also sends a message to blue tories which party they should support.

On my phone at the moment, anyone got those poll details referred to in the article? I note it's Forum, and mentions PC and Wildrose vote levels, and mentions the NDP is up, but doesn't give actual figures for them and the Liberals.

[Smid]

Those projected totals were also in the article, mate. I just trust Teddy and Earl more.

[Smid]

As do I. So much attack ad material for Wildrose to use...

Indeed. I note Redford's approvals/disapprovals are a mere +1.

It's interesting the Liberals have pulled back ahead of the NDP in the poll. Inside MOE and all that but still interesting nonetheless.

I wish we had some notional figures of the last election but in the new/redistributed seats. Do we have a Krago version of the Bat Signal?

[Smid]

Sponsorship Scandal, the sequel? They could title it "Gomery Goes to Edmonton"

[Smid]

I'll try to do them in time!

[Smid]

Hoping to finish them by the election, but no guarantees. Moving house soon to much further out so my travel time will increase and I'll have less time to put into this. Also got a big work-related election mapping project (almost finished, but probably another week or two to go on it). I'll try to finish it by the election, though.

[Smid]

A few estimates... Not terribly scientific since in some cases polls at the last election were split between two different ridings, so in some cases I've had a guess at transferring voters. If you find different estimates of notional results on any other site or by anyone else (eg. Krago), use those figures instead.

Airdrie
PC - 5,746 (62.52%)
Lib - 1,158 (12.6%)
NDP - 470 (5.11%)
Wildrose - 1,370 (14.91%)
Greens - 446 (4.85%)
Informal Votes - 19

Bonnyville - Cold Lake
doesn't seem to have changed boundaries.

Cardston - Taber - Warner
gains a reservation from Livingstone - Macleod (4,106 voters, 40 Liberal votes, 7 PC votes). No further changes. With such a low turnout in the area transferred in, I didn't transfer any declaration votes.
PC - 4,381 (45.86%)
Lib - 476 (4.98%)
NDP - 190 (1.99%)
Wildrose - 4,325 (45.28%)
Greens - 180 (1.88%)
Informal - 14

Dunvegan - Central Peace
had some very minor changes to the Eastern boundary, near the Northern boundary. I don't think that makes any difference to the overall result.

Fort McMurray - Conklin
PC - 1,963 (61.54%)
Lib - 810 (25.39%)
NDP - 267 (8.37%)
Greens - 150 (4.7%)
Informal Votes - 13 (0.41%)

Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo
PC - 2,547 (65.19%)
Lib - 931 (23.83%)
NDP - 281 (7.19%)
Greens - 148 (3.79%)
Informal Votes - 11 (0.28%)

Lethbridge East
PC - 5,104 (39.76%)
Lib - 5,819 (45.33%)
NDP - 753 (5.87%)
Wildrose - 827 (6.44%)
Greens - 333 (2.59%)
Informal Votes - 59 (0.46%)

Lethbridge West
PC - 4,613 (43.36%)
Lib - 3,785 (35.58%)
NDP - 1,113 (10.46%)
Wildrose - 776 (7.29%)
Greens - 351 (3.3%)
Informal Votes - 37 (0.35%)

Little Bow
PC - 5,509 (59.05%)
Lib - 1,105 (11.84%)
NDP - 337 (3.61%)
Wildrose - 2,095 (22.45%)
Greens - 284 (3.04%)
Informal Votes - 22 (0.24%)

Peace River
had some minor transfers from Dunvegan - Central Peace, but not enough to be able to estimate a changed margin.

[Smid]

Remembering... very tentative estimates.

Edmonton - Beverley - Clareview
PC - 4,487 (37.76%)
Lib - 2,128 (17.91%)
NDP - 4,464 (37.57%)
Wildrose - 343 (2.89%)
Greens - 223 (1.88%)
Independent - 193 (1.62%)
Social Credit - 45 (0.38%)
Informal Votes - 36 (0.3%)
The greatest difference between PC and NDP votes, favouring PC, was in the northern polls and proportion of declaration votes transferred from polls in Edmonton - Manning. It could be assumed that the NDP vote may have been higher had the contest in that riding been PC vs NDP, and therefore some of those Liberal votes may have shifted from the Liberal column to the NDP column (ie. strategic voting) and may well have closed the 23 vote gap between PC and NDP. This is all speculative, however.

Edmonton Centre
PC - 3,268 (29.41%)
Lib - 5,006 (45.05%)
NDP - 2,133 (19.19%)
Wildrose - 199 (1.79%)
Greens - 466 (4.19%)
Alberta Party - 41 (0.37%)
Informal Votes - 78 (0.7%)

Edmonton - Highlands - Norwood
PC - 2,640 (28.67%)
Lib - 1,872 (20.33%)
NDP - 4,206 (45.68%)
Wildrose - 176 (1.91%)
Greens - 313 (3.4%)
Alberta Party - 1 (0.01%)
Informal Votes - 35 (0.38%)

Edmonton - Manning
PC - 3,674 (36.75%)
Lib - 2,093 (20.94%)
NDP - 1,867 (18.68%)
Wildrose - 218 (2.18%)
Greens - 211 (2.11%)
Independent - 1,933 (19.34%)

[Smid]

Still just estimates.

Calgary - Bow
PC - 7,615 (55.72%)
Lib - 3,789 (27.72%)
NDP - 400 (2.93%)
Wildrose - 1,208 (8.84%)
Greens - 591 (4.32%)
Social Credit - 64 (0.47%)
Informal - 39

The area transferred from Foothills - Rocky View to Calgary - Bow did not appear to have any streets constructed yet, and therefore I did not transfer any voters between the two ridings.

Calgary - McCall
PC - 2,869 (42.66%)
Lib - 2,939 (43.7%)
NDP - 210 (3.12%)
WR - 400 (5.95%)
GRN - 307 (4.57%)
Informal - 35

Calgary - West
PC - 5,345 (49.34%)
Lib - 3,437 (31.73%)
NDP - 196 (1.81%)
Wildrose - 1,438 (13.27%)
Greens - 417 (3.85%)
Informal - 17

[Smid]

I already emailed Krago about it, and he said because he was doing it for CBC, he couldn't send me them. Hence my dilemma. Estimates are good, though!

Ah, yes, makes sense... if he's being paid to do them for CBC I guess it becomes their intellectual propoerty. Hopefully on election night they'll have a swing column on their results page at which point I guess it will be in the public domain? My estimates will just have to be okay until then. I'd still trust his results more, but I guess these are better than not having anything.

I've been putting together a map of notional results at the same time - once I've typed my estimate here, I transfer the result to a map. I'll put that up once I'm finished.

[Smid]

It's nothing spectacular but I do appreciate the compliment!

[Smid]

I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

[Smid]

Strongly supporting Wildrose. Mrs Smid knows people on both sides of the divide but a couple of close friends are working for Wildrose. I prefer the real Tories there, anyway - as Rogue Beaver says, PC are all adjective and no noun.

[Smid]

Sorry my numbers are not yet complete! I'll try to by election day, but would appreciate guidance on preferred ridings to prioritise.

[Smid]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

I was going to say that I've always found you to be moderate, but than realised that's not true. Neither of us are particularly moderate (indeed, we're each about equally far from centre), which highlights the difference between moderation and respect for people who hold an alternative opinion.

[Smid]

Personally, I think the NDP should field a candidate, too. I realise that the party is taking a principled stand against the Senate, but I think not fielding a candidate is putting ideology before reality, and although I can respect that (I generally prefer ideologues to pragmatists), I think it makes as much sense as not fielding candidates in single member electorates to protest against the electoral system not being PR. Obviously, they'd be unlikely to win anyway, but that's just my personal opinion.