Alberta 2012

[MaxQue]

They got in intense infringing (some group tried to take over leadership), which led to a two years long fight which paralysed the party for two years and saw most members leaving and most of the leadership resigning.

It was so paralysed than it asked to be unregisted when the executive of the party saw they would be unable to fill the annual reports requested by law.

They can attempt to recreate themselves (and probably will) after next election.

[MaxQue]

NDP 82, Lib 79, PC 50, WR 37.
I'm to the right of the NDP, which surprise me only a little bit.

[MaxQue]

There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

It will make them rise in polls, since their average voter is homophobic, christian supremacist and a oppose science because it isn't religion.

[MaxQue]

BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

Religious people in people in rural Quebec? Not really. Churches are being sold or downsized eveywhere in Quebec.
And not really right-wing. Northern Rural Quebec is quite Northern Rural Ontario.

But I'm getting your point. Some people are voting for change, not for ideology.

[MaxQue]

What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

I believe the Wildrose leader ran in Cardstone-Taber-Warner last election, which could explain the higher vote there. The most conservative riding federally was Crowfoot. Provincially that's Drumheller-Stettler, Strathmore-Brooks and I think Little Bow. Maybe parts of other ridings. If I've misspelt any ridings or left out obvious provincial ridings in Crowfoot, I apologise. I'm not on computer and away from my maps and tables.

Exactly, all Drumheller-Stettler, western tier of Strathmore-Brooks (the Strathmore part), none of Little Bow, a small part of Battle-River--Wainwright (probably not much populated), east part of Wetaskiwin-Camrose (the Camrose part), most of Chestermere--Rocky-View (except Rocky view area) and eastern half of Olds--Didsbury--Three-Hills (the Three Hills half, which seems very rural compared to the other half.).

[MaxQue]

Polls are closing at 8PM, so 10PM eastern and 2PM for you.

[MaxQue]

Even the NDP surge was picked up last year.

Well, there is yesterday poll than everybody discarded as an outlier....

[MaxQue]

Massive strategic voting. Will this mean a more left-leaning PC government, or will they move right from the scare?

Well, no, as Wildrose was polling higher than 34%.

[MaxQue]

Can anyone else remember such a shocking result?

Quebec, 1976? Lévesque had no speech for gaining power, since Bourassa reelected was very expected.

[MaxQue]

I will take solace in Sherman losing his seat tonight after the disgusting strategic voting.

lol.

There was no way than Wildrose could win with 34%, so strategical voting changed nothing.

[MaxQue]

So do they continue counting throughout the night?  Or will they call it a day and resume counting tomorrow?

Yes, they count all tonight.
Anyways, around 90% of votes is already counted now, only a couple of booths aren't finished in most ridings.

[MaxQue]

Raj Sherman finally elected by 118 votes.

[MaxQue]

Edmonton-McClung now 100% in

Wow, that's a huge swing to the PC there!

The seat had a Liberal incumbent last time (which lost).

[MaxQue]

Do you think the desire for change will be too great for the Tories overcome next election? It seems like their win this time was just a fluke.

Perhaps. The reason of the turnaround is probably than voters got afraid of which kind of change they would get. Now, with 17 seats and the Official Opposition, they will be able to show themselves to the Albertans.

If they are good in opposition, they should win easily next time. If they are a bad opposition, being inconsistent and incompetent, then, no.

[MaxQue]

It tells you something about Canada compared to the US that Alberta is by far the most rightwing province in Canada, and even in Alberta Danielle Smith of Wildrose stated that she favoured same sex marriage and abortion rights and still got crushed in the election because Albertans saw her as a rightwing crackpot.

Well, those issues are federal ones.