Alberta 2012

[mileslunn]

Seems to be following an eerily similiar pattern to 1971.  In both cases a party that had been in power for many years gets challenged by a party in third or fourth place and in both cases it was a battle between two parties on the political right.  The only difference is the PCs were more centrist than the Social Credit, whereas the WRA is more right wing than the PCs.  While taking a more centrist approach like Redford has might make sense in other provinces, it is a risky proposition in Alberta.  On the one hand it has marginalized the NDP and Liberals, but at the same time has opened room for a party on the right to emerge, whereas in other provinces that is less likely to happen as you would just get vote splitting and a centre-left would win by default.  Think New Brunswick 1990, British Columbia 1996 for example.

[mileslunn]

The Progs have always been centrist, that's why they were born and that's why they'll die. Good riddance.

Peter Lougheed was, but Ralph Klein was pretty conservative, especially in his first term.  True less so towards the end of his career.

[mileslunn]

I am guessing if those numbers hold up, Edmonton might be the PCs stronghold which in most cases is their weaker spot, mind you Edmonton usually is always more left leaning than the rest of Alberta and the PCs although still centre-right, they are to the left of the WRA.  I also wonder how many of the PC supporters are traditional NDP or Liberal supporters who are voting strategically to keep the WRA out of power as opposed to traditional PC supporters.  And likewise are the WRA supporters your traditional PC supporters are just your fed up types who want change?  I suspect it is somewhat of a mix although I should note federally in 1993 you did see a similiar strong swing from the PCs to the Reform Party and while many where traditional PC supporters, they did also attract some protest votes.  Also kind of like the 90s too with many of the types who voted for Joe Clark sticking with the PCs while those that went for the Reform/Alliance are gravitating to the WRA.  Although interestingly enough the PCs were strongest in Calgary not Edmonton where most who didn't vote Reform/Alliance went Liberal whereas Calgary was more of a mix.

[mileslunn]

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves

It might also due to strategic voting too.  Many not on the right will vote for whomever is most likely to stop the most right wing party and considering the PCs are doing much better than the Liberals or NDP, so might vote PCs for that reason never mind Alison Redford is pretty centrist anyways.  I know many on the centre-left who despised Klein, Harper, and Manning but would have no problem supporting Redford.  In fact that is partly why the WRA is doing so well is many Conservatives don't see her as a real conservative. 

[mileslunn]

It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

He never struck me as that ideological, if anything he seemed more like an opportunist and only run under the PC banner so as to have an influence in government and when that failed, took his marbles and went over to the Liberals.

[mileslunn]

A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

Strategic voting probably.  I know some people who went Liberal in Alberta but are going PC this time just to keep the WRP out of power.  Add to the fact Redford is more of a Joe Clark style Tory than one like Harper whereas Danielle Smith is probably closer to Harper although a little less experienced and more likeable.

[mileslunn]

Liberals switching to PC could mean a PC pickup in Edmonton-Gold Bar. Federally it voted Conservative over NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, so I think it's more likely to be one of the areas which could possibly even see a swing to PC, especially if the Liberal vote continues to decline (and Earl makes the point of Liberal-PC vote switching). PC strength/Wildrose weakness in Edmonton probably makes this riding more favourable to the PCs than many other ridings.

It would be quite interesting if, despite losing swathes of ridings across the province, the PCs could actually gain a seat.

Anybody have the federal results for each provincial riding.  It would be interesting to see how the federal parties fared.  Also in maybe another topic, we should try and do this for all provincial ridings across the country.  In Ontario, only the Northern Ontario ridings are necessary as the Southern ones are identical to their federal counterparts.  I also believe the Liberals won Calgary-McCall although I could be wrong, while I think the NDP won 2 or 3 in Edmonton federally.  I think they also took Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood despite losing Edmonton East as the NDP was strong in the southwestern corner of the riding.  I think Edmonton Centre went Tory federally although they probably got in the 30s only, but the NDP and Liberals I think split the centre-left vote here unlike elsewhere in the city.  Could be the effect of Laurie Blakeman as well as the holdover from Anne McLellan who although out of politics, still is quite popular.

[mileslunn]

At this point, I think the PCs will take it.  A bit of a surprise as the attack as being too right wing seems to work in Ontario, but not Alberta.  Witness the 2004 and 2000 federal elections where such tactic worked well in Ontario, but failed miserable in Alberta.  While the networks haven't called it, I cannot see the WRP pulling this off.  At least much like 1993 they gave the PCs a good scare.  The question is will they stay the main opposition or like the Liberals in 1993, will they wither away.

[mileslunn]

Pretty clear the PCs have a majority.  CBC is always last to call it anyways, but I think it is fair to say the PCs have won it.  Lets just see how the final results pan out.

[mileslunn]

Any chance the NDP can pick up enough seats from the PC to put the WRP over the top?

Doubt it, looks like a PC majority either way.  The individual results will be interesting in the individual ridings, but I think at this point a PC majority is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

[mileslunn]

Any chance the NDP can pick up enough seats from the PC to put the WRP over the top?

No...

I think in 1993, there was a similiar comeback as I believe the Liberals had an even bigger lead.  Also in 2004 federally if you look at Ontario only, you saw a similiar last minute shift from the Conservatives to Liberals.

[mileslunn]

deja vu 2004 federally again?  In 2004 we had the same comments.  I think with polls when you have a high undecided then anything is possible.  And considering that the undecided was quite high that is probably the reason.  It seems the undecided more often than not tends to break in favour of the incumbent.

[mileslunn]

Ted Morton has been defeated, so interesting the furthest right PC member has lost.  I often thought he would defect to the Wild Rose if they won and he won his seat.

[mileslunn]

It seems like Danielle Smith didn't have a concession speech written and Alison Redford didn't have a victory speech either.

True enough, although probably best to just make an adhoc one anyways as polls have in many cases been wrong.  Its not impossible to make a good adhoc one, in fact good speakers can make one on the spot.

[mileslunn]

Then again, I can also see Alberta as the kind of place which swung significantly ObamaBiden-ward in 2008, a la the Midwest/Mountain states (Utah not excluded).

As far as 2008 McCain-Palin swingers go...is there a Canadian equivalent at all?

I actually think the state closest to Alberta in terms of political values is Colorado.  The Deep South and Texas as well as Utah are a lot more conservative.  Yes the Democrats do win in Colorado sometimes but the right is more right wing in the US and the left is less left wing.  The Democrats would be like the PCs in Alberta and the Republicans like the WRA.  Colorado is generally fairly libertarian although not to the extent of same Ayn Rand much like Alberta while not that socially conservative except for a few pockets like in Alberta.  Also you have a similiar rural vs. urban split and in terms of religion a somewhat similiar profile unlike the South was is largely Evangelical Protestant and Utah which is mormon.  Alberta actually has the second highest percentage of no religious preference in Canada after BC.  In general in both Canada and the US, the West is the least religious.  Someone who is libertarian generally doesn't like rules, so they would not support left wing parties that advocate a more interventionist government, but also be wary of the church too. 

[mileslunn]

Having family from Alberta, I can give a good take on what happened here.  I don't think the Wildrose lost for anyone reason, but rather a combination of being seen as too extreme, but also too inexperienced and not ready to form government.  Even some who are more philosophically aligned with the WRA voted PC since they felt they were not ready for government, but could easily switch in 2016 if they show they are ready.  Even with the PC win, Alberta is still a Conservative province, not just not an ultra-conservative one and never was to begin with.  They elected Lougheed over 30 years ago who was a Red Tory like Alison Redford.  Yes they went Reform Party in the 90s, but so did BC, so some of that was a protest vote as I doubt all of those who voted Reform would have voted for them had they actually had a chance at forming government and thus would have come under greater scrutiny.  Ralph Klein was more conservative, but no more so than Mike Harris who won Ontario during the same period.  In 1993, Canada was downgraded and faced a debt crisis almost as bad as Greece and Portugal thus many not normally on the right voted for parties who promised to radically slash government spending simply as a reaction to the debt issue.  Even the Liberals federally made spending cuts far greater than the Tories now are making and interestingly enough the UK government based much of their budget cuts on what Martin did as finance minister in the 90s. 

In terms of social conservatism, Alberta isn't now nor has been a socially conservative province.  Yes the rural South is, but the Fraser Valley in BC, rural Southern New Brunswick, and parts of Central and Eastern Ontario are too.  Albertans generally don't care if you are gay, what your religion is, or ethnicity.  They only care about who you are as a person.

In terms of libertarianism, I think Alberta is libertarian in terms of they support a hands off approach government and are wary of an activist government, but not the Ayn Rand pure libertarianism is most still support universal health care and a free education system from K-12.  I would argue they still want less government so Redford has to be careful to not go too left wing or she may face trouble in 2016, but not try to out right wing the WRA either.  Lets remember in May 2011, 67% of Albertans voted Conservative while on 34% voted WRA meaning many federal Conservatives did stick with the PCs and with the combined right vote of 78%, that means around 3/4 of PC voters are federal Conservatives while only 1/4 strategic Liberal or NDP voters as well as some Liberals were probably centrist to begin with and voted for Joe Clark and Peter Lougheed, but found people like Harper or Klein too conservative so went Liberal then but have since returned, thus not all strategic votes. 

Also outside Edmonton, most ridings in Calgary and rural Alberta were won by less than 10% meaning it would take that big a voter shift to flip the results upside down to 60+ WRA seats and fewer than 20 PC seats.

[mileslunn]

If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I'm curious (this is obviously an unanswerable question, but I feel like posing it anyway)...considering the amount of influence a state of Alberta's size has on US politics, if Alberta joined the US, would the US tack left or would Alberta tack right?

Neither I would say.  It is probably the only province that would be a swing state whereas every province would be a solid blue state.  Besides Ontario and Quebec are the only two provinces large enough to have much impact anyways unless it was a close election.  Both would go solidly Democrat the only difference is Quebec would be like DC in terms of Democrat support while Ontario would be more like the Southern New England states (MA, RI and CT) and New York.

[mileslunn]

Actually Ontario would be large enough to have an impact if a swing state as it is roughly the same size as Illinois, bigger than Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while only smaller than California, Florida, New York, and Texas.  For example in 2000 and 2004, Bush likely wouldn't have won had Ontario been a state.  In the case of Alberta in 2000 it could have tipped things in favour of Al Gore if it went for him, but that election was a razor thin win so pretty much any state could have tipped the results in Gore's favour. 

As for Canada moving to the right, I would argue no more so than the US and Europe are.  Both of those areas are more conservative than they were 30 years ago.  I would argue there are two primary reasons for this.  The main one is you have an aging population and generally older people are more conservative than younger ones.

The other is shifting demographics in terms of area.  Generally the poorer areas which tend to lean more left are losing people while the more affluent regions which tend to lean more to the right are growing.  In the case of Canada, that would be Quebec and Atlantic Canada losing, while the West gaining, for the US, the rust belt states losing and sun belt states gaining, in Britain population loss in the Industrial North while gaining in the South of England and in the case of Germany, loss in East Germany and the Northern areas while growing in Southern Germany. 

Even shift in city population is having an impact too.  Here in Toronto, the downtown which has always been more left leaning isn't really growing while the 905 suburbs which are more conservative is where all the growth is.  Off course the hard right areas in both countries are losing people in many cases as rural areas are generally declining in population.  I believe in 2004, Bush won 97 of the 100 fastest growing counties, whereas here in Canada, the fastest growing areas are either Conservative or at least competitive for them (905 suburbs, Central Ontario, Calgary, Edmonton, bedroom communities surrounding Calgary and Edmonton, Okanagan Valley, Fraser Valley, Surrey, Richmond, North Nanaimo-Comox area).  By contrast the areas with almost no growth or losing population are generally not conservative friendly areas (Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, Acadian Coast of New Brunswick, Northern Quebec, Northern Ontario, the Territories).

[mileslunn]

On paper, the "changing demographics favouring the right wing" argument makes sense.  But if we go according to US parameters, a lot of that fast-growth-burbia may be too cosmopolitan for present-day Republicans.  (And remember, too, that there's a common countervailing demographic factor: as the right-friendly outer 'burbs boom, the aging inner burbs swing away from the right.  Notwithstanding Harper's 905/416 inroads, Ford Nation, etc.)

I was more referring to moving to the centre-right.  Certainly those areas not hard right.  Here in Canada the 905 belt doesn't blindly go Tory, in fact provincially it went Liberal and it took a few elections before Harper won it, otherwise it is centre-right as opposed to the more left leaning Downtown, but certainly not hard right.  The same could be said about the Alberta election as Calgary which is fast growing is definitely a right leaning city, but the WRA was a little too far right for them much like the tea party and religious right are for some US city suburbs.