Alberta 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Since we have a Quebec thread up... figured might as well start this one. Earlier this week the Alberta Legislature enacted a fixed-date elections law mandating an election between March 1- June 1.

Latest polls have the PCs up 51-19 on Wildrose, with the Grits and Dippers back at 13-14% apop.

Personally, I find the idea of another PC mandate loathsome. But it looks like the dynasty will survive another 4 years- when they should be wiped off the electoral map.

[RogueBeaver]

Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

No kidding. To be fair, except for Ralph Klein's first two terms, they've never really been all that big on the noun.

[RogueBeaver]

Progressives on track for another majority.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/23/alison-redford-alberta-poll_n_1166255.html?ref=canada-politics

[RogueBeaver]

some news about social credit party?

1935-1971 under 3 premiers. William Aberhart (1935-1943), Ernest Manning (1943-1968), Harry Strom (1968-1971).

[RogueBeaver]

Flanagan will run the Wildrose campaign.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tom-flanagan-to-run-wildrose-campaign-in-alberta-election/article2312499/

[RogueBeaver]

PC 38, Wildrose 29, Liberal 14, NDP 13. I saw a seat projection somewhere, all I remember is that PCs would win 57/87, down 9 from their current 66. Trying to find it now...

[RogueBeaver]

As do I. So much attack ad material for Wildrose to use...

[RogueBeaver]

Update: While the popular vote wildly fluctuates, the Progs are still projected to win another landslide.

Oh, and they also happen to be corrupt.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/02/20120221-123135.html

[RogueBeaver]

Somewhat like Rick Perry's administration. Pay-to-play, abuse of eminent domain, shady (in this case illegal) fundraising, etc. PCs have been involved in this sort of crap for years but only recently did they get a real opposition. At this rate Smith's best bet is to go for an "you had an option, ma'am" if they hold a debate. Plus the Progs are embarking on yet another spending orgy for electoral purposes as we speak.

[RogueBeaver]

Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.

[RogueBeaver]

PCs run an attack ad. The Progs are just as nannyish as Dad, no wonder she's BFF with him.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/03/20120308-100835.html

[RogueBeaver]

Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.

What's wrong with two conservative parties leading the province?

There's nothing conservative about the Progressives.

[RogueBeaver]

Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.

What's wrong with two conservative parties leading the province?

There's nothing conservative about the Progressives.

The Wildrosers can still pull out a win.

I hope, but not very hopeful ATM.

[RogueBeaver]

Dissolution in a few weeks.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Tory%2Bwoes%2Bdelay%2Belection%2Bcall/6284271/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

The election has to be held before Jan 1

You mean June 1. Redford said dissolution will follow the budget (just like Quebec), so within a month the campaign should kick off. I'm not very hopeful about the corrupt Progs being booted, or even their majority being substantially dented.

[RogueBeaver]

At least the Liberal bubble burst. Hopefully the leaders' debate (s?) is worth something.

[RogueBeaver]

Dissolution will apparently be tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

Because in at least one case (Liberals), the Progs do their work. A Brisonian ALP could have easily outflanked the Progs as they nearly did in '93- but too late, because now there's an unhyphenated conservative opposition.

[RogueBeaver]

WA 74, PC 63, Lib 39, NDP 20. I was significantly to Wildrose's right on fiscal matters but only slightly more socially conservative.

[RogueBeaver]

Alberta a close race?  Wtf wow.  This should be interesting.  A race between rightists and wacko tea-party-style rightists.  What a screwed up province.  Reminds me of the far-right mud-hole of a country where I live

A race between centrists and conservatives. Apart from Ralph Klein's first two terms the Progs have always taken the adjective much more seriously than the noun. How did Lougheed found the dynasty? By decrying the Socreds as a bunch of fast-buck Uncle Toms who were depriving Albertans of "our fair share" of oil revenue. His solution? An in-house NEP.

As for the close race, I expect a strong opposition but no Wildrose victory. Maybe in 2016. At best the heat gets strong enough to force the Progs rightwards, as Decore did in '93. That's the point- they only get serious about budget hawkishness when the gun's at their head. Albertans should not have to beg a supposdely conservative government to be fiscally conservative. That's without mentioning their corruption and shameless abuse of eminent domain. Did I mention aping McGuinty on nannyism?

Last but not least, 40 years is a ridiculously long incumbency. Half that is the maximum I'd be prepared to tolerate from any government.

[RogueBeaver]

Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

So 1993 all over again- the campaign will determine a winner. Or perhaps 2004 federally.

[RogueBeaver]

If WA surges too quickly, then tactical voting might kick in a la '04. Apart from that I have no idea. Any resident Albertans here?

[RogueBeaver]

In terms of strong incumbents, I'd rank Ted Morton highly. He's somewhat more Conservative, and a fair amount of the PC to Wildrose change came after he lost the leadership ballot. This suggests to me that some conservatives may see him as almost defacto Wildrose. I could be wrong, and no one has said this to me, it's just my own hunch. Of course, Wildrose performed quite well in his riding last election, I think, so I could be wrong.

One Wildrose candidate I'd rate highly is the guy who had previously been elected to the Senate - the first elected as an independent, I believe.

Yes, Morton is the PC right's longtime leader. Had he succeeded Klein 6 years ago Wildrose would probably not exist today IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Getting nasty out there.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/03/31/calgary-redford-smith-fertility-resignation.html?cmp=rss