Alberta 2012

[lilTommy]

I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

Because in at least one case (Liberals), the Progs do their work. A Brisonian ALP could have easily outflanked the Progs as they nearly did in '93- but too late, because now there's an unhyphenated conservative opposition.

I did the same VoteCompass... 90% NDP.
I think the NDP wins in some areas naturally esp in Edmonton given its demographics (government workers, conceration of students, etc) NOW is a perfect time for the NDP to show its the only progressive option since the PCs and Liberals are all Blue Liberals/Red Tories... The federal election momentum might help the NDP but in polls that ive seen the party has been stuck at about 13-14% even with the liberals so.

[lilTommy]

... Maybe i'm just as the crazy Don Cherry would say a "Left-wing pinko commie"

[lilTommy]

The reason why Wildrose is even around is the fact that the PC's are pretty red tory... Wildrose is true blue conservatives now and Alberta has almost always been a more conservative province. The last "preogressive" government (i use that sparingly) was the United Farmers back in the 1921-35... its been SoCred and PC ever since.

The NDP is also taking some guff in NS since they want teh senate abolished and the Libs/Tories want them to organize for an election of senators. Me, personally if elections for senators are being held then the NDP should run... this is how the ALP eliminated the Council in Queensland (probably over simplifying things)

Should be exciting... there is a danger that with PC/WR fighting the right... esp in Edmonton that might mean a Liberal or NDP comming up the middle and winning... with as little as 25%! (4 main parties and two smaller ones, Alberta Party and Evergreen something-or-other so depending on how the votes go)

[lilTommy]

Doubt it... the right-wing parties tend to be very provincially focused; and many Tories are starting to drift to the right anyway (here in Ontario is a good example of that).
BC has the new Conservatives, SASK has the Saskatchewan Party... the provincial tories are on life support in MAN along with the Liberals so there is no room there for another party on the right... that would mean NDP sweeping all seats. The only potential area is the Maritimes, but they never warmed up to the western based right-wing Reform, so i doubt they would vote for another one, even if it was a provincially focused one.

[lilTommy]

Thank you! i was looking for that poll as it was mentioned on Rabble...
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/

Comparing that with the previous election:
Edmonton:
Edmonton
PC: 43         28 -15
Lib: 35         18 -17
NDP: 18       23 +5
WR: 2          23 +21

IF these are close to being the results; we could see huge wins (seat totals) for either the PCs, NDP or Wildrose... as i mentioned before, with numbers like this (factor in Alberta Party and Evergreen taking say 5% combined) we could see a party with with 25% of the vote.
The Liberals look like they might lose all their seats but probably will be left with 2 is more close to reality (Meadowlark and Centre probably). IF the Liberal vote swings 60%+ to the NDP this could mean 4-5 pick ups for the NDP (Glenora, Calder, Beverly-Clearview, Manning), If the WR eats enough into the PCs vote we could even see low hanging seats like Gold Bar, Ellerslie, Riverview or Centre going NDP. Thats my optimistic NDPer forcast. We could easily see WR pick up some strong right wing/affluent suburban ridings too by meer hundreds of votes. 


   

[lilTommy]

Earl, killer... love your maps and the riding by riding predictions.
I commented too

Campaign Research seems to be so far an outlier in Edmonton... they have the NDP far higher than anyone else, and the PCs/WR lower. I love them numbers but for now i will take it with a grain a salt.

If people are looking for a comparison year, its 1971... SoCreds had been in power for about 36years; the tories went into that election with only 6 seats. The similarities are there; a seeming tired regime, a popular new party leader with momentum (WR Smith today); That elections saw the Liberals Shut out and the NDP under the late Notley won a seat (rural northern one at that). This time i don't see the PCs, like the SoCreds being shut out of Edmonton and Calgfary... Calgary maybe but not Edmonton. Also, Alberta is more diverse now then in 1971 but that could go either way, no longer are minority groups a given to vote for Liberals/NDP or even the moderate PCs now.

I think Smith already made a blunder; saying Redmond didn't love Alberta, really? thats a pretty novice weak attack.

[lilTommy]

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves

[lilTommy]

Why does everyone assume that the many of the remaining NDP and Grit supporters will strategically vote for the PCers? The MLPs are the same troupe of right-wingers that they've opposed for decades and presumably most Blue Liberals are already supporting Redford.

My Guess is that more Liberal voters are flexible, exp. since Redford is the typicla red tory. The Liberals are running a very left-wing platform from what ive seen so they don't seem to be going after the PC vote. I think the Liberal vote might be nearing its bottom, which is probably close to what the NDP is at, around 10%
The NDP might see 2008 numbers but i think thats the basement right now, their numbers since election call haven't tanked or skyrocketed so i think more of that moderate vote might be going PC if the WR looks to win big. The NDP are pretty stable, there sitting about (province wide) 2004 numbers... but with four-way splits who knows how thats going to manifest.
2008 - 8.5% (EDM - 18%)
2004 - 10.2 (EDM - 22%)

[lilTommy]

Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be very interesting!

Not sure about Martin. I don't know why he would switch ridings, AFAIK there's no residency requirements to run, but Alberta might have those rules.

The Edmonton Journal did a write up on Edm-Glenora (papers do that kinda thing, bios of ridings) anywho Martin said the "party" thought he would have a good shot at the riding given his name and political history in the city, he really was the face of the NDP back when the party took 16seats in the late 80s. (the liberal social media space was so pissed at that news, they thought they had this one locked up) Also the riding he held in 04 was Beverly-Clearview (earl you pointed that out) they had already nominated an different candidate... Martin is getting up there in age so i think the common perception was he was done after running in 08 and in May 11 in EDM East.

[lilTommy]

Daveberta.ca did a review of some potential WR MLAs and potential cabinet ministers:
http://daveberta.ca/2012/04/danielle-smith-wildrose-candidates/

A nice mix of Evangelicals, sexually-insecure anti-gay activits, Harper Conservative connected people and weird eco-conservatives who think LRT is dirtier then cars...

[lilTommy]

Sorry, posting craze today... Leger poll

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll/

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Quote: The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton.

Edmonton
PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

This is the second poll to have the NDP at 20%... Earl, how do you think this will play with your Edmonton prediction if this trend continues?

[lilTommy]

The way I see it there are 6 winnable seats for the NDP - all in Edmonton (plus a possible longshot in Lethbridge West)

Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Highlands Norwood are easy holds
Edmonton-Calder and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview were very narrow losses last time and should be very low hanging fruit this time what with the collapsing PC and Liberal vote
Edmonton-Glenora is a good target with ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar is entirely part of the Linda Duncan's federal riding and redistribution has added even more NDP territory to it. With no Liberal incumbent and a strong NDP campaign that is building on the federal NDP check-marks - this is highly winnable for the NDP in a four way split.

Sounds about right to me... I'm going to throw Manning into the mix if the NDP end up at 20+ in the city; The have a strong (on paper) candidate in a School board trustee, they earned about 20% in 08 when the there was a liberal-turned-indie MLA and a Liberal in the mix. I think this is the next low-hanging fruit in the city

[lilTommy]

Because no one wants to be left out of a ruckus

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/06/albertavotes2012-mason-letter-healthcare-wildrose.html

[lilTommy]

I wonder what would be the game plan for Liberals or Dippers in Alberta? They obviously can't rise above 30% even if the other party collapses. It seems to me at least Canada is somewhat swing able unlike a lot of US. Try to move to the center(closer to Tories) and attempt to assistance their character based on scandals/corruption/etc?

Hmmm from what i have been seeing (basically monitoring the Edmonton Journal, CBC, Globe) the Liberals are trying to out-NDP-the-NDP running on planks like eliminating Tuition (i think this is geared to holding Edmonton Riverview home of UofAlberta campus). The NDP is playing two familiar cards; Health care and a newer Jackish "lets all play civil and nice" approach. The NDP presented the most moderate and cost effective platform (nothing splashy like the WR or tories). The NDP is playing to its base, going after the Liberal supporters... the Liberals are just trying to hold on for dear life. Of the two, the NDP has the most momentum or vigure from what ive seen of the CBC news coverage.
And yup, Hatman has it right... the big difference between Edmonton and Calgary is that Calgary is one sprawling suburb, like Mississauga with more offices; edmonton has a urban city feel in the core and Strathcona areas from what my ALberta friends tell  me

[lilTommy]

Edmonton-Riverview is held by the Liberals, not the NDP.

... i know, i said "holding" Edmonton-Riverview. With Taft gone, it makes this riding more vulnerable for the Liberals, the only "safe" Liberal seat would probably be Centre in large part to Blakemann (one n?)

[lilTommy]

A tale of two cities... nothing new to us

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/10/albertavotes2012-vote-compass-edmonton-calgary-differences.html

Calgary's "centre" or the cities core is all Liberal, they held all the seats under the old distribution and if they can work their vote they may be able to hold one or two. Except Currie which was Taylors seat and he sits as an Alberta Party member but ain't running. Interestingly the seats the Liberals hold were the one the NDP held in the 80s (Mountain View and McCall as its called now).

[lilTommy]

What kind of name is Raj Sherman, anyway?

Lots of South Asians with English surnames. Think of Russell Peters.

Remember... we were all english colonies at once point some more recent then others, some still can't shake it

So, some polling after the debate:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5587

Not a good night for Redford (-15 on the impressions scale)... but looking good for Smith (+ 10)and Mason (+27!)... i can see Liberals starting to run from Sherman now espcially after reading the observations here

[lilTommy]

This kinda stuff has started to come out... this "born this way" nonsense, and a link i posted earlier to a review done by daveberta.ca of some of the WR candidates. Now this probably plays better in Edmonton over Calgary but Smith might have a hard time playing the moderate card when those she leads appear more more and extremist, if the media picks this stuff up.
I've been hearing (from my bfs friends in Calgary, mostly located around the University in the NW) that they are planning to vote strategically for the PCs. this is a group who would otherwise vote Liberal...
Ya the polls are looking dead, its all going to depend on how the local riding-by-riding campaigns go.
whoever was looking for the Federal poll-by-poll votes, earls page is my one-stop-shop (nice plug eh )
http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/
 

[lilTommy]

I wasn't expecting this:

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/04/16/alberta-ndp-boss-lands-lethbridge-leader

I don't think it will change the NDPs fortunes in Lethbridge, but might help their numbers esp in LWest where the NDP was really hoping they could have a strong showing. Could this push them over the top to win? probably not, but might help them bust through 20%

Great work Earl, Ya i was wondering why Calder was in the too-close-to-call... I think if anything this is the next NDP riding since Eggan has more "name cred" then Bilous (beverly-clearview) but i agree the NDP "should" be able to skate away with 4 at a minimum, 6 if the votes get split their way (Glenora and maybe Gold Bar... or Riverview or Manning).

[lilTommy]

http://toryorwildrose.ca/
... have some fun with that

This elections sounds a lot like Quebec last May except not so much of a surprise... where can the NDP win? what ridings? by how much?

There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

[lilTommy]

There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

It will make them rise in polls, since their average voter is homophobic, christian supremacist and a oppose science because it isn't religion.

I fiund myself tempted to agree with you... but from the Albertans i know (including my bf who went to UofCalgary) they aren't that homophobic, facistist as WR makes them seem... at least in the cities where they are more small-c economic conservatives. Its odd cause Calgary/edmonton are home to large south asian groups and edmonton has a large ethiopian population.
BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

[lilTommy]

BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

Religious people in people in rural Quebec? Not really. Churches are being sold or downsized eveywhere in Quebec.
And not really right-wing. Northern Rural Quebec is quite Northern Rural Ontario.

But I'm getting your point. Some people are voting for change, not for ideology.

Thank you, and i didn't mean to assume since my point was don't assume. Well rural people tend to more socially conservative maybe less "church" religious but can be just as god-burns-you-in-hell like. With quebec i find in some rural areas its more a language and "cultural" desire too keep the country as french white catholic as possible.
I'm already eating popcorn! If i were Mason (NDP) i'd start the chanting that the NDP is now the only opposition in edmonton to stopping the WR.

[lilTommy]

Why are the BC Liberals the de-facto conservative party in the province anyways? Aren't the federal Liberals more left-wing? (although that isn't saying much).

The result of its usurping the Socreds in 1991--and then when Gord Campbell assumed the leadership a few years later, the BC Grits officially inherited the "anti-socialist-horde party of record" mantle from Social Credit.  (Which led the leader responsible for the Liberals' 1991 breakthrough, Gordon Wilson, to set up a breakaway party and later to join the NDP.)

It goes back even farther then that to the 40s when the Liberals, SoCreds ran i want to say joint lists... but that might not be right. Anyway since then it has been all about stopping the NDP, so whichever "free enterprise" party was the strongest, or has the best leader or was the least corrupt was the defacto "right-wing" party. Everyone assumes the Liberals are leftwing; in reality they are socially liberal, fiscally moderate at best... and each province is a different flavour. we touched on this in the bc by-election thread

[lilTommy]

Interesting breakdown analysis Hatman! , i think we all gave up the liberals for dead but you have them winning two in calgary; granted those are the two most urban. progressive ridings in the city (Mountain View has NDP history too) and they ahve sitting Liberals so the campaigns can try and say the Liberals are the strategic vote. Lets hope that this is the case. If they win any is Calgary it has to be them two!
Edmonton, Raj losing Meadowlark? that will be a huge blow, and i don't disagree hes probably been a terrible leader for the party so far, but leaders do get some advantage (which i'm sure you have factored in
The air is a sense of change is coming, and there is high voter turnout at the advanced polls so, i'm waiting to see "whats-his-names" finals too...

I'm still crossing my fingers for a liberal-collapse-NDP-sweep but i'm an optimist

[lilTommy]

last poll i saw
http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/71110_Alberta_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf

Province
Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

Edmonton
Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1