Alberta 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

It's for the best; if a province ever needed a "united left", it's Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. Somehow I dont see the Wild Rose party to be too perceptive of any type of environmentalism.  Isn't their leader a climate change denier?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh, linking to an Eric Grenier link... I think there should be rules against such things.

[Hatman 🍁]

The election has to be held before Jan 1

[Hatman 🍁]

The election has to be held before Jan 1

You mean June 1. Redford said dissolution will follow the budget (just like Quebec), so within a month the campaign should kick off. I'm not very hopeful about the corrupt Progs being booted, or even their majority being substantially dented.

Oops, yes. I hope they wait until after the NDP leadership race.

(still hoping Smid makes the redistributed results)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll try to do them in time!

Excellent. What does "in time" mean? Before the election, or before the writ drops?

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh. Darn. Well, better than nothing.

[Hatman 🍁]

I already emailed Krago about it, and he said because he was doing it for CBC, he couldn't send me them. Hence my dilemma. Estimates are good, though!

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent stuff Smid, you're my hero.

[Hatman 🍁]

The writ is expected to drop any day now. BTW, Smid, do you support the Tories or the Wildrose?

[Hatman 🍁]

Election called for April 23

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry my numbers are not yet complete! I'll try to by election day, but would appreciate guidance on preferred ridings to prioritise.

The one's with the most changes.

[Hatman 🍁]

I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

[Hatman 🍁]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

[Hatman 🍁]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

I was going to say that I've always found you to be moderate, but than realised that's not true. Neither of us are particularly moderate (indeed, we're each about equally far from centre), which highlights the difference between moderation and respect for people who hold an alternative opinion.

Smid, I must confess, I'm not always respectful to the other side like you are; but I could never throw any harsh words towards you. (In fact, you're so darned nice, it's hard to picture you as a cold hearted conservative )

Anyways, some recent polls:

Ipsos-Reid:
PC: 38%
WR: 38%
NDP: 12%
Lib: 11%

Think HQ Public Affairs:
PC: 36% (-6)
WR: 33% (+4)
NDP: 13% (-)
Lib: 13% (+1)

It's a close race!

[Hatman 🍁]

It should also be known that there will also be a Senate election. The Tories, WRP and the Greens are running candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

So 1993 all over again- the campaign will determine a winner. Or perhaps 2004 federally.

If the WRP pulls away, it might make things easier to predict. But, as it stands now I have no idea how the WRP vs PC vote will split in terms of ridings.

Anyone want to put in their 2 cents?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a breakdown of the FR poll:

Rural north:
WR: 41
PC: 36
NDP: 9
Lib: 8

Rural south:
WR: 46
PC: 29
NDP: 11
Lib: 10

Calgary:
WR: 47
PC: 28
Lib: 13
NDP: 8

Edmonton:
WR: 31
PC: 30
NDP: 18
Lib: 17

Leger breakdown

Edmonton:
PC: 37
WR: 23
NDP: 17
Lib: 16

Calgary
PC: 37
WR: 35
Lib: 13
NDP: 8

Rest of Alta
WR: 41
PC: 37
NDP: 8
Lib: 7

To compare, the last election:

Calgary
PC: 46
Lib: 34
WR: 9
NDP: 4

Edmonton
PC: 43
Lib: 35
NDP: 18
WR: 2

[Hatman 🍁]

I will be doing my first prediction soon. These are the numbers I have now:

WRP: 53-56
PC 22-27
NDP 4
Lib 3-4

[Hatman 🍁]

Campaign Research breakdown

Calgary
WR: 42%
PC: 31%
Lib: 14%
NDP: 6%

Rest of Alta
WR: 46%
PC: 31%
Lib: 10%
NDP: 10%

Edmonton
PC:   28
Lib:     18
NDP:  23
WR:   23

[Hatman 🍁]

My first prediction for Alberta: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/2012-alberta-election-prediction-march.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for the comment Seems others have commented as well, which is nice to see. Someone mentioned the Abacus poll, so I should post the numbers here:

WRP 41 (+12)
PC 28 (-6)
ALP 16 (-2)
NDP 12 (-2)

Can't find any regional numbers yet. But it's clear to see that the PCs would be nearly wiped off the map with those numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting note about the Abacus poll, it was done using the IVR technology from EKOS. One of my friends/co-workers did the voice for it, so many Albertans will have heard her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?

Which version of Harper?