PPP preview of IA, VA & NM

[Tender Branson]

1st round of calls on this week's Iowa poll- Newt up by similar margin to last week, Bachmann makes it a 3 way tie for 2nd with Paul/Mitt

Newt's negatives in IA are up compared to a week ago...worth keeping an eye on even if his support isn't declining yet

Newt's crushing the field in Virginia, where Cuccinelli continues to have a large lead over Bolling early in the 2013 race

Newt up big in New Mexico, not important to nomination but combined with VA and IA leads suggests he has another week as front runner

Since I think everyone wants to know...we did put Tebow's favorability as the last question on this week's Iowa Republican poll

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[Lief 🗽]

Imagine if Romney comes in fourth behind Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann. LOL

[Bull Moose Base]

I would think Tebow would have very high favorables with Republicans in Iowa but he just beat the Vikings and Bears back to back.  I assume those are the two most popular teams in Iowa.  Looks like Romney's and Paul's attacks are landing on Newt a bit.

[Meeker]

Interesting that Bachmann is seeing the rise in Iowa and not Perry. Or maybe Perry will be just behind the three-way tie.

[Tender Branson]

ARG might have picked up a trend in Iowa:

We're going to get the Iowa numbers out this afternoon. Significant tightening between Gingrich and Paul in the last week

Over the course of our Iowa field period Paul got stronger, Gingrich and Bachmann got weaker

Newt's net favorability in Iowa is down 19 points in the last week

Paul's net favorability in Iowa is up 16 points compared to a week ago. Must have said something right in that debate

Gingrich and Romney the only two candidates above 8% in Virginia

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[Eraserhead]

It has to be the advertisements.

[Bull Moose Base]

It has to be the advertisements.

How much rotation has Paul's anti-Newt ad gotten?

[Eraserhead]

It has to be the advertisements.

How much rotation has Paul's anti-Newt ad gotten?

Not sure about the Iowa airwaves specifically. I'm sure Mr. Morden or somebody knows. It has been played on national programs quite a lot though.

[Tender Branson]

It has to be the advertisements.

How much rotation has Paul's anti-Newt ad gotten?

Not sure about the Iowa airwaves specifically. I'm sure Mr. Morden or somebody knows. It has been played on national programs quite a lot though.

Rasmussen will release new NH poll numbers in the next minutes and because Paul's "Dog" ad also ran in NH we should soon know if he can get close to 20% or more there ...

[cavalcade]

PPP said before that 50% of likely caucus goers claimed to watch the last debate.  The actual number is lower, but probably at least 30%.

And Newt did his best in that debate, but everything got thrown at him, especially in the first half hour.  I really think it's that at least as much as the ads.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I had a post a while back- called Ron Paul could be the GOP nominee... everyone laughed but look now

[Eraserhead]

I had a post a while back- called Ron Paul could be the GOP nominee... everyone laughed but look now

He can't be the GOP nominee. The party elders would literally never allow it to happen. He could win Iowa though.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I had a post a while back- called Ron Paul could be the GOP nominee... everyone laughed but look now

He can't be the GOP nominee. The party elders would literally never allow it to happen. He could win Iowa though.

The party elders have no say anymore... who do you mean anyway- Bushes/Rove/Koch???

[Tender Branson]

PPP twitters more stuff:

There are a lot of parallels between Paul's base of support in Iowa and what Obama did in 2008- young voters, independents, etc

Only 41% of IA Republicans say they're opposed to gays serving openly in the military...and Perry continues to be going nowhere

Rick Perry is only 4th in IA among GOP voters opposed to gays in the military, what ad would he have to run to win those folks over?

Tim Tebow does have a better net favorability with Iowa Republicans than any of the Presidential candidates

[The Mikado]

Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachmann 11
Perry 9
Santorum 8
Huntsman 5
Johnson 1

Holy s**t Ron Paul.

[Meeker]

Huntsman is the weirdest IMO. Has he ever even stepped foot in Iowa?

[Bull Moose Base]

Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachmann 11
Perry 9
Santorum 8
Huntsman 5
Johnson 1

Holy s**t Ron Paul.

So between this and the University poll, the two most recent Iowa have Gingrich tumbling?  I wonder if anyone would drop out after Iowa if this were the result.  Decent result for the Ricks and Michele with a possible vacuum opening up for non-Libertarian social cons if Newt keeps falling?  I also think the odds of a late entrant would go way up.

Huntsman is the weirdest IMO. Has he ever even stepped foot in Iowa?

Looks like it may have been a mistake for him to skip it.

[Eraserhead]

Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachmann 11
Perry 9
Santorum 8
Huntsman 5
Johnson 1

Holy s**t Ron Paul.

Things are looking even better for Paul than those numbers suggest when you dig into the poll.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1213925.pdf

[King]

Huntsman at 5? ARG was right?!?!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachmann 11
Perry 9
Santorum 8
Huntsman 5
Johnson 1

Holy s**t Ron Paul.

Here comes the R3volutionavator

[Simfan34]

Huntsman at 5% and Santorum at 8%? Was ARG not so wrong?

[Yelnoc]

I had a post a while back- called Ron Paul could be the GOP nominee... everyone laughed but look now

He can't be the GOP nominee. The party elders would literally never allow it to happen. He could win Iowa though.

The party elders have no say anymore... who do you mean anyway- Bushes/Rove/Koch???

If Ron Paul entered the Republican Convention with a clear delegate majority, he would leave cheated.  The way the GOP convention has set up the primary calendar this year, and the way individual states have implemented The Rules leaves most of the early states open to all kinds of credentials challenges.  Mr. Morden can elaborate better then I.  Regardless, there are plenty of openings that Stop Paul types could use to derail his hypothetical candidacy.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huntsman at 5? ARG was right?!?!

The deluge is coming. Better take a look at the price of gold.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I had a post a while back- called Ron Paul could be the GOP nominee... everyone laughed but look now

He can't be the GOP nominee. The party elders would literally never allow it to happen. He could win Iowa though.

The party elders have no say anymore... who do you mean anyway- Bushes/Rove/Koch???

If Ron Paul entered the Republican Convention with a clear delegate majority, he would leave cheated.  The way the GOP convention has set up the primary calendar this year, and the way individual states have implemented The Rules leaves most of the early states open to all kinds of credentials challenges.  Mr. Morden can elaborate better then I.  Regardless, there are plenty of openings that Stop Paul types could use to derail his hypothetical candidacy.

They'd have to be suicidal to block Ron Paul if he won a majority of delegates. He'd almost certainly run third party and lose the Republicans the election (At best) or split the party altogether and ruin the Republican chances in the future too.

[Tender Branson]

More news:

Our Virginia poll is the best news we've had for Obama anywhere in 6 months probably...Pres numbers out in the next 2 hours

Gary Johnson sneaks into double digits in NM, other than him it's just Newt and Mitt. What we're finding most places now