IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Ron Paul almost 1st

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Taking a closer look, it looks like what's really driving Paul's surge is Occupy Wall Street.  Not kidding.

He's got the same coalition of supporters Barack Obama had.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

ARG had a pretty accurate final Iowa poll 4 years ago. They also polled Iowa a lot in 2007.

In Mid-December 2007, Paul only had 5% support and 5-8% support right before the caucus. He ended up with 10%. So I would say he has a damn good chance to win this, unless Santorum really gains in the final weeks ...

Seriously, I suspect Paul's support is greater than traditional polling would indicate. After all, a sizable group of Paul voters are probably "non-traditional" but more importantly, he attracts the folks who probably are a bit, how do I say, paranoid?

He'll probably outperform the polls for the reasons you outlined (+ youngsters without landlines, indies who never vote voting, etc), but its doubtful that he'll strongly outperform. He probably has to have no more than 6% difference with the frontrunner in most polls to win.

Then we'll see if he can turn it into a primary win in New Hampshire. That would seal the deal on his nomination in all practical senses, whereas a strong performance would make the rest of the season a big slog between Ron's grassroots dominating caucuses and Romney's cash doing better in primaries.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Eh, while a Paul victory would be pretty great, his supporters appear to be young people, people who haven't caucused before, and independents/Democrats... in other words, probably the three groups least likely to actually turn out.

That's why Obama lost the nomination to Clinton and we're complaining about President McCain right now.

Those three demographics also happen to be the three hardest for a Republican candidate to harness in a primary, the three most useful if aforementioned candidate went against a Democrat in the general election, and the three most unpredictable and thus hardest to poll.

That isn't even mentioning that Paul's supporters are looking far more solid than Newt's (voters who aren't changing their minds, for example) and that he's on the rise while Newt's on the decline.

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There's a big enough anti-establishment feeling that Paul could probably overcome that and win anyway. And you have to admit, Paul vs Obama would be among the most worthwhile debates to watch.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Doesn't SC have a strong military presence? That would benefit Paul.

Yes, I'm sure all the people in the military are thrilled with the notion of losing their jobs.

I'm sure all the people in the military prefer being stationed in a base wasting taxpayer dollars far from home on the presumption that Putin's gonna start up the T-74s when the Americans leave, or being shot at by people they don't know in a country they have no stake in and with no end in sight.