US with Canadian parties

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just so you know, I'm working on California now.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Any other comments on Maryland, Indiana, or Ohio?

[Bacon King]

Any other comments on Maryland, Indiana, or Ohio?

They're pretty good. With Maryland, I think it'd be better if you had one district that was just Baltimore City and one that was just Baltimore County (I tried MD a while ago, and I don't remember it being too overpopulated- what threshold are you using?). I also think it'd be a bit better if you put the northern part of the yellow district near Annapolis into the teal district. But honestly, good work with MD, when I tried I was pretty perplexed when figuring out how to do all the necessary county splits.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Any other comments on Maryland, Indiana, or Ohio?

They're pretty good. With Maryland, I think it'd be better if you had one district that was just Baltimore City and one that was just Baltimore County (I tried MD a while ago, and I don't remember it being too overpopulated- what threshold are you using?).

I was using the 25% threshold, but trying to keep the deviations much lower when possible. These changes would work within the 25% threshold. Baltimore County is about 11% overpopulated and Baltimore City is about 14% underpopulated. My concern is that the underpopulation in the city may be too much when you consider that the city's population is also declining. There's also the fact that I kept the deviation under 10% elsewhere.

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You mean the whole rest of Anne Arundel County, or just the extreme northern part closest to Annapolis? Shifting the entire rest of Anne Arundel County to the teal riding would work, but I'm not entirely sure it would better serve communities of interest. Southern Anne Arundel County looks more rural, similar to Calvert and St. Mary's Counties, as opposed to the more suburban northern part of the county. With the yellow riding forced into suburban Prince George's anyway, I didn't want to completely screw rural interests in the southern part of the state. But it does look as if there are a few more suburban precincts near Annapolis that probably should be shifted into the teal riding.

[Jackson]

Washington:



Riding names

1-Seattle

2-Lake Washington

3-Tacoma

4-Kitsap Peninsula-Olympia

5-Skykomish-White River

6-North Puget Sound-Olympic Mountains

7-Grays Harbor-Vancouver

8-Tri Cities-Yakima

9-Spokane-Okanagan

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Washington:



Riding names

1-Seattle

2-Lake Washington

3-Tacoma

4-Kitsap Peninsula-Olympia

5-Skykomish-White River

6-North Puget Sound-Olympic Mountains

7-Grays Harbor-Vancouver

8-Tri Cities-Yakima

9-Spokane-Okanagan

1. With such a large deviation threshold, surely you can get rid of some of those egregious county splits. I'm playing around with this right now, and I don't see why King County needs to be split between more than three ridings, why Snohomish County needs to be split between more than two, and why Pierce County needs to be split at all.

2. I've seen people on this forum propose districts that cross the Puget Sound before, and I've always been mystified by it. Does Port Townsend really belong with Bellingham? Wouldn't it make more sense to pair Bellingham with Everett and keep the Olympic Peninsula whole?

3. Surely Klickitat County belongs in an Eastern Washington riding.

[Jackson]

I see no particular reason to respect county lines in the case of a densely populated metropolitan region, particularly one in which many cities cross said county lines. In any case, while it is true that you could split fewer county lines, such a map would wholly ignore the actual communities of interest that this map represents.

The reason for the cross sound district is largely because Clallam and Jefferson, much like San Juan, Island, and Whatcom counties, are chock full of rural hippies and organic farmers, among others, thus making those counties much unlike Grays Harbor, filled with decaying mill towns and working-class social conservatives, or Mason, which is Seattle exurbia.

Klickitat also has similar demographics to Grays Harbor, making it a better fit for the southwestern district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Works for me, then. After all, you're the one who's from the state in question.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

California should be up once I actually find time to sit down and screencap it all.

[Smid]

California should be up once I actually find time to sit down and screencap it all.

Awesome! Obviously I need to redo Georgia, but what other states (or are we using the more Canadian "provinces"?) are good to go?

[Jackson]

I think that the states that have been finished are:

South Carolina
Louisiana
Maryland
Washington
Indiana
New Jersey
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

Also, hold off on drawing Kentucky. I'm going to draw a counter-proposal to Hatman's plan

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I think that the states that have been finished are:

South Carolina
Louisiana
Maryland
Washington
Indiana
New Jersey
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

Also, hold off on drawing Kentucky. I'm going to draw a counter-proposal to Hatman's plan

South Carolina: Has two competing proposals that haven't been debated.
Louisiana: Has at least three competing proposals that haven't been seriously debated.
Maryland: I'm still looking for input, and some changes will be made as per Bacon King's suggestions.
Washington: I'd wait a little while for more input, but it'll probably end up looking similar to Jackson's plan.
Indiana: I'd like some input on this before it is finalized. I'm not sure if the lack of comment means I did a good job or if people don't feel qualified enough to say.
New Jersey: This one's done.
Michigan: I'd like a little more input on this one as well.
Ohio: I'd like a little more input. I'm really not sure about some of the rural ridings.
Pennsylvania: This one's done.
Texas: I think it's safe to assume this one's done.

And I've recently finished Virginia and will have a proposal up shortly.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Virginia:







Blue (Arlington-Alexandria-Fairfax East): Arlington and Alexandria get paired with the eastern part of Fairfax County. I tried not to split municipalities, but it seems that precincts don't entirely conform to municipal boundaries. Population: 744,533 (2.36% overpopulated).

Green (Fairfax West): The remainder of Fairfax County. Population: 719,683 (1.06% underpopulated).

Purple (Manassas-Leesburg): Outer suburban DC. Population: 766,407 (5.37% overpopulated).

Red (Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Delmarva): The Delmarva Peninsula is only connected by road to Virginia Beach, so the two must be paired. Population: 705,756 (2.97% underpopulated).

Gold (Hampton Roads): Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, York County, and Williamsburg. Population: 748,175 (2.86% overpopulated).

Teal (Blacksburg-Bristol-Martinsville): Population: 722,603 (0.65% underpopulated).

Gray (Richmond): I feel that the split of Chesterfield County is justified to keep Richmond and its immediate suburbs in the same riding. Population: 738,287 (1.50% overpopulated).

Slate Blue (Roanoke-Shenandoah Valley): I think Roanoke fits best in this riding, but I'm not sure. It may be more desirable to swap it out for the northern portion of the Charlottesville riding, creating a Central Virginia riding that doesn't go all the way up to DC exurbia. Input would be appreciated. Population: 722,075 (0.73% underpopulated).

Cyan (Fredericksburg-Tidewater): Population: 694,738 (4.49% underpopulated).

Deep Pink (Lynchburg-Charlottesville-Warrenton): Again, I'm not too happy about Fauquier County's presence in this riding. Should it go in with the Shenandoah Valley instead? Population: 699,010 (3.90% underpopulated).

Chartreuse (Petersburg-Suffolk-Danville): Population: 739,757 (1.70% overpopulated).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

CALIFORNIA
















Ridings (DRA order)

North Coast--Klamath (probably NDP)
Marin--Sonoma (definitely NDP)
Davis--Chico--Red Bluff (Tory)
Sacramento (NDP or Grit)
Citrus Heights--Elk Grove (Tory?)
North Sierra (probably Tory)
Concord--Brentwood (Grit?)
Fairfield--Vallejo--Richmond (Grit?)
San Francisco (NDP)
Oakland (NDP)
Hayward--Fremont (Grit or NDP)
South Sierra (Tory)
Wasco--Visalia--Tulare (Grit, possible NDP after 2011)
Bakersfield--Tehachapi (swing, probably Tory in 2011)
Fresno (Grit)
Modesto--Merced (Grit)
Stockton (Grit/Tory swing, probably Tory in 2011)
San Mateo (NDP)
Monterey Bay (NDP)
Santa Clara (Grit, possible NDP after 2011)
San Jose (NDP)
Santa Barbara--San Luis Obispo (Grit/NDP)
Ventura (swing)
Mojave (Tory)
San Bernardino (Grit/NDP)
Rancho Cucamonga (Grit/NDP)
Palmdale--Santa Clarita (Tory)
Pomona--San Dimas--Covina--Baldwin Park (Grit)
San Gabriel--Temple City--El Monte--Rowland Heights (NDP)
Pasadena--Glendale--Burbank (swing? I really don't know)
San Fernando North (Grit/NDP)
San Fernando South (Tory?)
Inglewood--Manhattan Beach--Marina Del Rey (NDP)
Hollywood--Santa Monica (NDP)
Port of Los Angeles--Torrance--Compton (Grit/NDP)
Los Angeles South Center (NDP)
Los Angeles East Center (NDP)
Long Beach (Grit?)
East Los Angeles--Downey (NDP)
Norwalk--Whittier--Montebello (NDP)
Huntington Beach--Garden Grove (Tory)
Anaheim--Fullerton--Yorba Linda (Tory/Grit swing, probably Tory in 2011)
Newport Beach--Santa Ana (swing)
Irvine--Laguna--San Juan Capistrano (Tory)
Corona--Lake Elsinore (Tory?)
Riverside--Moreno Valley (Grit?)
San Jacinto--Joshua Tree (Tory)
Palomar--Capitan Grande--El Cajon (Tory; this is also probably Torie's riding unless I'm mistaken as to where exactly he lives)
Oceanside--Escondido (Tory)
San Diego North (Grit/NDP?)
San Diego South (Grit/NDP?)
Imperial--California Border (NDP)

[Хahar 🤔]

There's no need to have a constituency encompassing the San Jose city limits; they're utterly meaningless, as you can see by the shape of the municipality.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

All right, let's just say that the northern appendage of San Jose goes into Santa Clara. That makes it look better and helps even out the population anyway (a riding that's just San Jose has rather a lot of people in it).

[Хahar 🤔]

I feel like more can be done in Santa Clara County; I live there, so I'll take a look sometime and see what I can do.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

All right, thank you. I was wondering that a little myself given how oddly San Jose is shaped.

[Хahar 🤔]

Until Norm Mineta was elected Mayor, the objective of the government of San Jose was to annex as much land as possible. Other jurisdictions were forced to incorporate to avoid annexation, while San Jose gobbled up everything that it could, thus yielding the strange shapes.

[King of Kensington]

I quite like this discussion.  But here are some comments/questions:

1.  I think there's a problematic tendency here to conflate "liberal Democrats" with the NDP constituency.   Yet the NDP has not been particularly successful with wealthy socially liberal professionals.  The NDP does do well in bohemian neighborhoods and among academic/university communities, but not among more traditional professionals like lawyers and doctors and the "bobos" that David Brooks writes about.  In fact with the collapse of the Liberal Party the constituency that they can count on most are professionals and people with post-graduate degrees.  So places like Aspen, Marin County, Beverly Hills, Lexington Mass., etc. would have stayed Liberal and not have gone NDP.  At most, strong NDP showings in these places would have allowed the Tories to come up the middle and win

2.  Not sure how to put the collapse of the New Deal coalition in the 1960s and 1970s.  In US, "white ethnics" became a swing vote or even Republican, but in Canada this is historically a "bedrock Liberal constituency (though in the 2011 election the less affluent white ethnics swung NDP and more affluent Tory).   What would the scenario have been with "Canadian" style parties?  Would the NDP have become the "civil rights party" and the Libs kept the "white ethnic" vote?  Or would the Liberals have successfully been able to straddle a middle ground and hold both these constituencies?

3.  I'm assuming African Americans and Latinos (with the exception of Tory-leaning Cubans) both would have been Liberal constituencies with a strong NDP minority, but both would have dropped the Liberals like a hot potato in 2011 and gone NDP.   

[Smid]

Excellent and thoughtful analysis and welcome to the Forum, King of Kensington! I hope you wander a few boards lower to the International Elections board and further down to the International General Discussion board, too.

The Hispanic community can be somewhat socially conservative. Do you think there is the possibility of them switching from Liberal to Conservative in 2011, like the Jewish community? Of course, that probably had more to do with foreign policy than social policy, but I'm sure you understand my query.

EDIT: I see you've already been around a while and particularly in the International Elections board. I hope you become more active because you seem to be quite insightful.

[King of Kensington]

Excellent and thoughtful analysis and welcome to the Forum, King of Kensington! I hope you wander a few boards lower to the International Elections board and further down to the International General Discussion board, too.

The Hispanic community can be somewhat socially conservative. Do you think there is the possibility of them switching from Liberal to Conservative in 2011, like the Jewish community? Of course, that probably had more to do with foreign policy than social policy, but I'm sure you understand my query.

Yes, it's quite plausible that a sizable minority of the Hispanic community would have swung Conservative in a Harper/Ignatieff/Layton matchup in US terms.  Not as much as the NDP though.  Class status and generational status (multi-generation US-born more Conservative?) would have played a role I think.

Harper would have appealed to US Jews in this scenario to the same degree of Reagan '80 (plus accounting for the growth of the Orthodox and Russian and Israeli immigrant communities since then).  Of course this raises the question of the "religious right" factor, which is the biggest turnoff to Jews. 

[Smid]

That makes sense - that it may depend on the class structure within the Hispanic community, I guess the difference between Republican and Conservative immigration policy (and it would be difficult to tell how that might shape up with the Mexican border, rather than the US border, to the south).

You're right, of course, about the substantial difference between the Bible belt and the Torah belt and the way the two different communities respond to the same issues.

[LastVoter]

The dippers would cease to exist as a party after a couple elections, they would struggle to break 10%, and since funding is allocated by votes in Canada... Yeah. I think something like Wildrose would be created for the tea partier, and it might split the PC vote for the first Liberal government since LBJ/FDR. Am I off-base here, or did I describe Canada to US parties pretty accurately?

[Peter the Lefty]

Yeah, they'd need a Wildrose party.  The NDP wouldn't exist easily in such an anti-socialist society, though the Occupy movement might give it steam.  I doubt they'd do well anywhere besides New England, California, and New York City.