Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

And here's Nova Scotia: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=ns&dir=media&document=jul1212&lang=e

[Hash]

Quebec, Ontario and Saskatchewan will probably be the most fun. Any word out on when we can expect those?

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec, Ontario and Saskatchewan will probably be the most fun. Any word out on when we can expect those?

No idea since BC and AB were off schedule.

[Smid]

Posted links to both your blogs on my Facebook, stellar work! Perhaps PEI is taking so long because they are worried about putting out a draft that purposes no changes?

[DL]

And here's Nova Scotia: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=ns&dir=media&document=jul1212&lang=e

Not much change in Nova Scotia but at first glance, i think that Dartmouth-Cole Harbour becomes a safer NDP seat and Sackville becomes less safe (though still very safe). I suspect that South Shore St. Margaret's annexes some NDP leaning territory that used to be in Halifax West.

[MaxQue]

It would be nice to have the redistribution numbers for all of the proposed ridings in every province (except NB, I saw someone do that on their blog already).

I'm doing Newfoundland, it should be finished soon (only SW is still to do).
You should put the link for the NB results.

[Hash]

For once, the 308 guy did something useful (and correct, I guess) - he did the Newfoundland redistribution. The new Avalon would have been won by Fabian Manning, the Tory, with 38.5% against 34.9% for the Liberals and 25.4% for the NDP. The Liberals would have won with over 50% of the vote in the 3 mainland ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the NB link that was posted in the comments on my blog: http://junkiepolitico.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/new-brunswicks-proposed-federal-riding-changes-a-closer-look/

For once, the 308 guy did something useful (and correct, I guess) - he did the Newfoundland redistribution. The new Avalon would have been won by Fabian Manning, the Tory, with 38.5% against 34.9% for the Liberals and 25.4% for the NDP. The Liberals would have won with over 50% of the vote in the 3 mainland ridings.

Well, we knew Avalon was becoming Tory. Interesting that he's delving into the redistribution process. :/ Haven't been to his site in a while.

[lilTommy]

NS - as we thought, really just shrinking of the ridings areound Halifax, enlarging the rest of the ridings in Rural NS.

Sackville - Porters Lake: Loses Musquodoboit which voted NDP, but gains in N.Dartmouth, which was more mixed Lib/NDP. With Stoffer still running, and much of that vote probably midlt solid Liberal (part of Dart. East provincially that went Liberal) its more competative but still NDP.

Halifax West: Where did it go! lol, lost everything south of the 103hwy, removing quite a few NDP and tory polls, i could be wrong but it looks to be safer for the Liberals now, as its more focused on Halifax(Rockingham) and Bedford which are strongly Liberal. A good target for the NDP but the Liberals will be desperate to keep it.

South Shore-St.Marg. : Gains the polls from Halifax west (around Shad Bay) a mix of NDP and Tory Polls... Also losses some area around Barrington out in Shelbourne which was tory. Still a battle between the NDP/Tories... could swing with whoever becomes gov't i think.

Capre Breton-Canso: grew to include some of St. Marys which looks tory, might be a tad more competative for the tories now

Central Nova: Gains Musquodoboit valley from Cumberland-Colchester... meaning maybe half-a dozen NDP polls are now included in the riding while it lost a few Tory polls. Still probably safe but MacKay's star is rusting nationally and a good NDP candidate might, just maybe knock-him out.

All in all the NDP could potentially gain two-three ridings here (SSst.M and Halifax west, maybe even Central Nova but the last two will be harder to win; the first being a three way the other being already strongly tory)

[lilTommy]

Here it is folks, part 3 of BC (Northern Lower Mainland)

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/british-columbia-federal-riding.html

Great work! are you going to make a counter propsal map? I like your idea about the Seymour area being moved: " However, if you take out Squamish and Whistler from West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, and move that riding into North Vancouver, and move North Vancouver eastward into the Seymour area, you solve this problem"

But what to do with Burnaby? and the Port Coquitlam splitting up issue?... (if this pop makes sense) could you not move the southern Port Moody in with North Burnaby? at least there is a natual connection... Burnaby North - Port Moody riding. It would still be an NDP/Tory battle it just looks like it makes more geographic and connective sense.
Then have Coquitlam and the area of Port Coquitlam which is in Pitt Meadow-Maple Ridge in the same riding. Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam riding.
Pitt Meadows-Maple ridge is now even smaller... but what if all of Maple Ridge is included in this riding? does that bring it back to quota?

I just find those two isses tobe big ones... and i think we can play around enough to address them, leaving them is a lazy excuse to not make the ridings actually work

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure something could be done on the southern side of the Burrard Inlet. I don't know if I'll do a counter proposal right away, I might wait a bit, since there is so much work to be done on the actual proposals.

NS - as we thought, really just shrinking of the ridings areound Halifax, enlarging the rest of the ridings in Rural NS.

Sackville - Porters Lake: Loses Musquodoboit which voted NDP, but gains in N.Dartmouth, which was more mixed Lib/NDP. With Stoffer still running, and much of that vote probably midlt solid Liberal (part of Dart. East provincially that went Liberal) its more competative but still NDP.

Halifax West: Where did it go! lol, lost everything south of the 103hwy, removing quite a few NDP and tory polls, i could be wrong but it looks to be safer for the Liberals now, as its more focused on Halifax(Rockingham) and Bedford which are strongly Liberal. A good target for the NDP but the Liberals will be desperate to keep it.

South Shore-St.Marg. : Gains the polls from Halifax west (around Shad Bay) a mix of NDP and Tory Polls... Also losses some area around Barrington out in Shelbourne which was tory. Still a battle between the NDP/Tories... could swing with whoever becomes gov't i think.

Capre Breton-Canso: grew to include some of St. Marys which looks tory, might be a tad more competative for the tories now

Central Nova: Gains Musquodoboit valley from Cumberland-Colchester... meaning maybe half-a dozen NDP polls are now included in the riding while it lost a few Tory polls. Still probably safe but MacKay's star is rusting nationally and a good NDP candidate might, just maybe knock-him out.

All in all the NDP could potentially gain two-three ridings here (SSst.M and Halifax west, maybe even Central Nova but the last two will be harder to win; the first being a three way the other being already strongly tory)

The NDP targeted Central Nova back in the day, so it could be a pick up!

[DL]

NS - as we thought, really just shrinking of the ridings areound Halifax, enlarging the rest of the ridings in Rural NS.

Sackville - Porters Lake: Loses Musquodoboit which voted NDP, but gains in N.Dartmouth, which was more mixed Lib/NDP. With Stoffer still running, and much of that vote probably midlt solid Liberal (part of Dart. East provincially that went Liberal) its more competative but still NDP.

Halifax West: Where did it go! lol, lost everything south of the 103hwy, removing quite a few NDP and tory polls, i could be wrong but it looks to be safer for the Liberals now, as its more focused on Halifax(Rockingham) and Bedford which are strongly Liberal. A good target for the NDP but the Liberals will be desperate to keep it.

South Shore-St.Marg. : Gains the polls from Halifax west (around Shad Bay) a mix of NDP and Tory Polls... Also losses some area around Barrington out in Shelbourne which was tory. Still a battle between the NDP/Tories... could swing with whoever becomes gov't i think.

Capre Breton-Canso: grew to include some of St. Marys which looks tory, might be a tad more competative for the tories now

Central Nova: Gains Musquodoboit valley from Cumberland-Colchester... meaning maybe half-a dozen NDP polls are now included in the riding while it lost a few Tory polls. Still probably safe but MacKay's star is rusting nationally and a good NDP candidate might, just maybe knock-him out.

All in all the NDP could potentially gain two-three ridings here (SSst.M and Halifax west, maybe even Central Nova but the last two will be harder to win; the first being a three way the other being already strongly tory)

Am I correct that Sackville also loses a chunk of terriroty to Dartmouth that is solidly NDP making Robert Chisholm much safer?

[lilTommy]

DL - Yup, can't believe i missed that. Dartmouth shifts south to take in Eastern Passage and  Shearwater CFB. The NDP won all the polls there except for the one in Shearwater proper. and the prov. riding of Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage is safe NDP i think, so Robert who was safe before is even safer.

Halifax - gains what maybe a few polls with the line being moved west to the 333hwy for a bit then back. Probably changes nothing, and Leslie is pretty much a star like Chisholm so.

[LastVoter]

Has anybody done Uniform swing from Tory to NDP swing where they are tied province wide with liberal vote remaining constant in BC? How many more seats do Tories win over NDP?

[DL]

and the prov. riding of Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage is safe NDP i think, so Robert who was safe before is even safer.

No kidding, isn't that Dexter's riding?

[lilTommy]

and the prov. riding of Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage is safe NDP i think, so Robert who was safe before is even safer.

No kidding, isn't that Dexter's riding?

Close, he represents Cole Harbour... Becky Kent represents Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage, she was a city councillor before winning a by-election to replace an out-going NDP MLA. The NDP have held the riding since 98

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont think the Halifax riding changes at all. It has the exact same population. I think the NDP's prospects in the province depend heavily on how they do in the next provincial elections.

[MaxQue]

Labrador (no change)
Conservative : 4 256 votes (39.8%)
Liberal : 4 177 votes (39.1%)
NDP : 2 120 votes (19.8%)
Greens : 139 votes (1.3%)

St. John's South – Mount Pearl (no change)
NDP : 18 681 votes (47.9%)
Liberal : 11 130 votes (28,6%)
Conservative : 8 883 votes (22.8%)
Green : 291 votes (0.8%)

St. John's North (current)            St. John's North (proposed)
NDP : 31 388 votes (71.2%)            NDP : 26 382 votes (71.0%)
Conservative : 9 198 votes (20.9%)         Conservative : 7 759 votes (20.9%)
Liberal : 3 019 votes (6.9%)            Liberal : 2 586 votes (7.0%)
Green : 467 votes (1.1%)            Green : 412 votes (1.1%)

Avalon (current)               Avalon (proposed)
Liberal : 16 008 votes (44.0%)         Conservative : 13 613 votes (38.4%)
Conservative : 14 749 votes (40.5%)         Liberal : 12 329 votes (34.8%)
NDP : 5 157 votes (14.2%)            NDP : 9 085 votes (25.6%)
Other : 276 votes (0.8%)            Green : 224 votes (0.6%)
Green : 218 votes (0.6%)            Other : 215 votes (0.6%)

Random—Burin—St. George (current)      Bonavista—Burin—Trinity (proposed)
Liberal : 12 914 votes (49.7%)         Liberal : 16 563 votes (54.7%)
Conservative : 8 322 votes (32.0%)         Conservative : 9 126 votes (30.1%)
NDP : 4 465 votes (17.2%)            NDP : 4 261 votes (14.1%)
Green : 307 votes (1.2%)            Green : 263 votes (0.9%)
                     Other : 61 votes (0.2%)

Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor   Bay d'Espoir—Central—Notre Dame (proposed)
(current)
Liberal : 17 977 votes (57.7%)         Liberal : 15 901 votes (54.7%)
Conservative : 8 595 votes (27.6%)         Conservative : 8 916 votes (30.7%)
NDP : 4 306 votes (13.8%)            NDP : 3 940 votes (13.5%)
Green : 279 votes (0.9%)            Green : 256 votes (0.9%)
                     Other : 68 votes (0.2%)

Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte (current)      Long Range Mountains (proposed)
Liberal : 17 199 votes (57.0%)         Liberal : 19 658 votes (55.1%)
Conservative : 7 559 votes (25.2%)         Conservative : 9 009 votes (25.2%)
NDP :    4 751 votes (15.8%)            NDP : 6 399 votes (17.9%)
Other : 332 votes (1.1%)            Green : 369 votes (1.0%)
Green : 253 votes (0.8%)            Other : 264 votes (0.7%)

[mileslunn]

In terms of Nova Scotia, I wonder how Cape Breton-Canso would have gone as I still think the Liberals would have won it, but it would have been closer as usually Cape Breton Island goes Liberal, but the mainland goes Tory and with Cape Breton Island losing people and this being the Liberals strongest part of the province, this is not good news for them.  As for the other ridings, I think the Tories still would have taken South Shore-St. Margaret's in 2011, but it might have gone NDP in 2008 as that election was a bit closer.  Either way it will be battleground no matter which way it went.  A lot will depend on the national numbers as well as also is the NDP still in power provincially and are they an asset or liability.  Generally I have noticed in the majority or not all cases, the party in power provincially usually hurts its federal counterpart unless off course the premier is really popular in which it helps them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Im surprised that in the past there was no appeal to try and keep 2 ridings entirely on Cape Breton due to community of interest. It doesn't make sense to have a riding cross the Strait like that.

[mileslunn]

Im surprised that in the past there was no appeal to try and keep 2 ridings entirely on Cape Breton due to community of interest. It doesn't make sense to have a riding cross the Strait like that.

I don't think they have much choice as Cape Breton Island in terms of population would be way too small for two ridings.  Even one and half is pushing it if you ask me.  More like it should be 1 and a quarter if it were truly representative.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a tough call. But, look at PEI. It has the same number of people as Cape Breton, but gets more than twice the ridings. Cape Breton could easily be its own province. 2 Cape Breton based ridings would fit within the 25% threshold.

[Wilfred Day]

Cape Breton Island in terms of population would be way too small for two ridings.  Even one and half is pushing it if you ask me.  More like it should be 1 and a quarter if it were truly representative.

Antigonish should be added to Cape Breton--Canso (and become Cape Breton--Antigonish). The two Cape Breton ridings would each have about 81,853 people, 2.3% below quotient.

Halifax has 4.66 quotients, and should have a half riding of its own: Sackville--Truro, rather than shove a portion of Sackville into Kings-Hants where it doesn't belong, and put Kings-Hants 4.6% over quotient when it is now just right at 0.994 quotients; as well as shoving part of Halifax into Central Nova (by-passing Truro).

That leaves Pictou-Colchester North-Cumberland with 93,697 people, 11.8% over quotient. (If you want to stay within 10%, shift "Pictou C" (8,867) to Cape Breton--Antigonish.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Welcome to the Forum, Wilf

[DL]

For the sake of "community of interest" why not have one purely urban Cape Breton seat that would be Sydney, North Sydney, Glace Bay and New Waterford and then let all of rural Cape Breton be a separate riding along with a chunk of the mainland. The fact is "industrial Cape Breton" really is a world apart from the rural areas which have more in common with the rural mainland.