Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[MaxQue]

I also don't know what do to with the names "Shawinigane" and "La Chute".

[Poirot]

They just like writing names like in the 19th century.

Maybe the names come from historical societies input. Or they spent time research this instead of working on the map and trying not to cut towns in two.

[Wilfred Day]

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Naming ridings for people who are, or should be, famous is a Quebec thing, not found elsewhere. Maybe it should be. I really have to admire some of the names.

Annie MacDonald Langstaff was the first woman to earn a law degree in Quebec, in 1914. After she was refused admission to the Bar, she waged a lengthy battle for the right of women to enter the legal profession. Women were finally admitted to the Bar for the first time in 1942.

John Peters Humphrey was the first Director of the United Nations Division of Human Rights and the principal drafter of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. He was a founding member of the Canadian Society of Amnesty International and the Canadian Human Rights Foundation, now known as Equitas. A law professor at McGill, he was named to the Academy of Great Montrealers

Idola Saint-Jean, a Montréal-born journalist and suffragette, was one of the pillars of the feminist movement that led to recognition of women's right to vote in the early 1940s. A park in Montréal bears her name.

Nicolas Vincent was born in Wendake (Huron Village) in 1769. He was one of the greatest representatives of the Huron Nation, if not the greatest, and was one of its last hereditary chiefs.

A native of Beauport, Étienne Parent was editor of the newspaper Le Canadien and, for a time, the intellectual leader of the Patriote Party. Parent served as the first official librarian for the National Assembly.

The name of this electoral district refers to the colonizing efforts of Antoine Labelle, a Catholic priest better known as Curé Labelle. He was the principal promoter of construction of the railway line that linked Montréal to Saint-Jérôme, enabling the development of this part of the Laurentides region.

Louis-Honoré Fréchette was a journalist, writer, lawyer and politician born in Lévis. He was the first Canadian to receive the Montyon Prize, one of the most prestigious honours awarded by the Académie française, for his collection of poems entitled Les Fleurs boréales – Les Oiseaux de neige.

A master mason who arrived in Ville Marie in 1653, Urbain Brossard constructed many buildings in the Montréal area.

Born in L'Islet, Joseph-Elzéar Bernier was a famous ship captain and explorer. In 1909, he erected a plaque on Melville Island, asserting Canada's sovereignty over the Arctic.

The name of this electoral district recalls the fact that Île Jésus was granted to the Jesuits by the Company of One Hundred Associates. Paul Ragueneau was Superior of the Jesuits of Canada from 1650 to 1653.

A Montréal neurosurgeon who died in 1976, Dr. Wilder Penfield became famous for developing a medical treatment for epilepsy and for making discoveries related to the biology of memory.

A best-selling novelist in Quebec, Roger Lemelin wrote the famous novel Les Plouffe. It was adapted for television under the title La Famille Plouffe (The Plouffe Family) and was broadcast live starting in 1953, becoming Quebec's first hit television program.

And best of all: "Considered the best hockey player born in Quebec, Maurice Richard lived in Ahuntsic, in the heart of this electoral district."

[Poirot]

For the new Quebec map, the quotient is 101,321. There are 3 more ridings than previuously. They chose to put 2 ridings in Montreal's northern rim (the biggest population growth area) and 1 in the south rim. And then because Gaspésie Bas-Sant-Laurent region has a riding below the 25% treshold, they remove one and decide to put it on Montreal island.

With the quotient Montreal island should have 18.6 ridings. It will now have 19. I was against adding .5 riding (sharing one half with Vaudreuil) because it would cross ove another administrative region and would not help solve over other overpopulated areas on the south shore. I didn't think the commission would make city ridings over represented. With changes to a couple of ridings on the island, they would be all withing 10% variance of the quotient. Now they have redone the Montreal map and will face opposition from the region that lost a riding.

In a reversal of fortune the region that was overrepresented is now underrepresented !
Bas-Saint-Laurent Gaspésie had three of the least populated ridings:
Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia 71,389  (29,5% under quotient)
Gaspésie-Iles de la Madeleine 81,991 (19,1 under quotient)
Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques 84,809 (16,3% under quotient)
Montmagny-L'islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup 97,261

These are made into three ridings and they are now the most populated ridings in the province. Gaspésie les Iles 111,761, Rimouski 112,450 and Elzear Bernier 111,239. The first two are the only ridings to be over 10% of the average. And the biggest has Iles de la Madeleine in it, so these constituents are isolated from the rest on the mainland.

After the New Brunswick proposal I thought the Quebec commission might pull a Miramichi (let one be under 25%). Or they would try to move around some people and have three ridings under by 20-25%. It would require breaking up MRC's boundaries but maybe locals would prefer that than lose one riding entirely.

The Saguenay region seems to have lost part of a riding because now part of the city of Saguenay (Chicoutimi) is sharing a riding with the Charlevoix region.
 

[Wilfred Day]

There are so many changes in Quebec, I can't grapple with most of them. I'll start in the east.

Charlevoix--Saguenay contains 70,904 people in Saguenay and 29,578 people in Charlevoix (29% of the riding) two and a half hours drive away. The Commission could have made the Saguenay--Lac-Saint-Jean region three ridings each about 9.6% below quotient. No, they had to screw them around. Chicoutimi NDP MP Dany Morin will be scratching his head, while Jonathan Tremblay, NDP MP for Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord, finds himself expected to run in Côte-de-Beaupré, only 54% of which is within his present riding (although he does live in that part), while the other 46% is in the Quebec City region.

And in the Bas-Saint-Laurent--Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine, which rates 2.90 ridings, they give them the two largest ridings in the province: 10.3% over quotient and 11.0% over quotient, leaving Elzéar-Bernier comprising 69,845 people in Bas-Saint-Laurent and 41,394 at the east end of Chaudière - Appalaches, another oversize riding 9.8% over quotient. This leaves Bloc MP Jean-François Fortin running against NDP MP Philip Toone.

(Born in L'Islet, Joseph-Elzéar Bernier was a famous ship captain and explorer. In 1909, he erected a plaque on Melville Island, asserting Canada's sovereignty over the Arctic.)

Now for the good news: as I expected, a new riding of Lévis looks very winnable for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hopefully this proposal gets taken out to the back and shot in the head. I think I just threw up a bit. 

Wait, is this some sort of practical joke? Ok guys, where's the real proposal?

[Wilfred Day]

Wait, is this some sort of practical joke? Ok guys, where's the real proposal?

One thing I'll say for it: how they handled the Outaouais problem. The Outaouais region has 3.64 quotients. What to do? Their solution is to add 42,661 residents of Antoine-Labelle and parts of Les Laurentides (0.42 quotients), included in Hautes-Laurentides--Pontiac. This puts Mont-Laurier into the same riding as Maniwaki, which makes sense. (If you're worried about names, shouldn't it be Papineau--Pontiac--Hautes-Laurentides?)

The alternative was to add the 32,117 residents of Argenteuil including areas on the border of metropolitan Montreal. I think they made the right choice.

I'm surprised at Estrie, which has 3.067 quotients, such a lovely fit for three ridings. No, it's two ridings and parts of three others.

[MaxQue]

Wait, is this some sort of practical joke? Ok guys, where's the real proposal?

One thing I'll say for it: how they handled the Outaouais problem.

Western Quebec is very good, only have an issue with a name (Petite Nation).

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm doing a write up on Western Quebec, next. I guess it's "OK". I'm not sure what to think of the Outaouais district. It does connect similar areas, but one can't ignore they are two areas that haven't been in the same riding in a long time. And there's this big river diving them. The name is my big beef (would call it Hull-Gatineau). The other two Gatineau ridings look very nice and compact. I would change their names too. Aylmer would be Aylmer--Les Collines-de-l'Outaouais. And Petite Nation (which makes no sense, as the seigneury and the Petite-Nation river are not in the riding) would become Gatineau--Du Lievre.

[ObserverIE]

Earl, you'll hate it, there is a ton of ridings named about people, like Gilles Villeneuve.

Jesus Christ. How long till we get a Celine Dion riding at this rate?

First kill her off.

[lilTommy]

I think its pretty unanimous that no one likes people names, especially those from the modern era being used (Villeneuve? really)... but it does avoid long place names, but i still feel they are better suited.

So, i might be the odd man out here, but i don't hate the Montreal proposal... it looks more like the provincial boundaries map, I like there is no split ridings between the mainland and the island (both of montreal and laval)

John-Peters-Humphrey: looks to be a possible tailor-made Liberal riding (possible Tory competative on too?) Cote-saint-luc voted heavy for the tories, Mount Royal heavy liberal and the dorval/Lachine polls went NDP (but I could see them go back liberal)… if Mulcair continues to “own” quebec though, this riding could just be a pick-up (I’m just as shocked to say it)

Wilder-Penfield: I hated that NDG was split, so this is a good change… Also a NDP target, it losses the NDP polls from the DT and Ville-Marie, but gains some NDP polls from the old NDG-Lachine. Not sure if that evens things out; but its still competitive for both parties. Westmount is the big hurdle for the NDP (like Rosedale in TO), I don’t expect these voters to budge, the NDP would need to sweep NDG to win here I think, still possible though. 

Outremont: just been shifted west, yes losses Mile End NDP polls but pick up the NDPs “best polls” from Mont Royal, Mulcair will stay put he will still win since it wasn’t a terrible change to the boundary

Ville-Marie (should be called Ville-Marie – Point-Stant-Charles) Plateau-Mile End, Hochelaga, Idola-Saint-Jean (ok makes no sense, since the riding can easily be called Rosemont!); I think they all make sense they are based on the arrondissments mostly. And Papineau doesn’t seem to have been changed much if any!

Maurice-Richard; interesting, the bloc’s best polls from Ahuntsic added with I the Saint-Michel liberal area with the NDP splattered everywhere. If Mourani runs, advantage to her but its competitive for all three by the looks of things.

Saint-Leonard: ouch to the Liberals, SlSm was a hold for them, now its been split into these two (MR above) and neither are a solid Liberal riding anymore. The Libs won only two polls N of R.Sherbrooke while the NDP won maybe 20 or so polls in Saint-Leonard… NDP edge?
Montreal-Est (probably Anjou - Montrel-Est would be better): safe for the NDP since in theold Honore-Mercier the Liberals won a chunk of polls in the North. Plus, for some reason I like this box shape

Rivieres-des-Prairies: becomes more of an NDP/Liberal fight now

George-Etienne-Cartier (at least Cartierville is here!): Looks to be a strong Liberal Riding, best lib polls from Ahuntsic and a mix but edge to the liberals of polls from StLaurent-cartierville.
MacDonald-Langstaff: becomes competitive for the NDPvsLibs; Roxboro was a good mix of polls won by all three but leaned more NDP; while the area gained from StL-C was a mix as well but leaned more Liberal. 

Denis-Banjamin-Viger: is home to some very strong tory polls, but with all of Pierrefonds now in this riding (hey a name! Pierrefonds - Ile-Bizard) the riding is still going NDP

The only thing that bugs me about Lachine-LaSalle, Ville-Marie and Verdun, is that there are natural berriers within each, the lachine canal in LcLs and VM and the aqueduct in Verdun.
If the Mulcairmania in Quebec continues, I could see the liberals relegated to 2 maybe 3 seats  (Papineau, John-Peters-Humphrey and Lac-Saint-Louis) at best, at worst 1 JPH (I just can’t see this go NDP, where I can see Papineau (sorry Justin) and LSL fall to the NDP… but it would be close.

[DL]

I think John Peters Humphrey could be winnable for the NDP once Cotler retires and the NDP nominates someone with strong credentials in the Jewish community and then gets the anti-Conservative vote to coalesce behind the NDP.

[Wilfred Day]

I'm doing a write up on Western Quebec, next. I guess it's "OK". I'm not sure what to think of the Outaouais district. It does connect similar areas, but one can't ignore they are two areas that haven't been in the same riding in a long time. And there's this big river diving them.

But they perfectly included the whole of the Gatineau metropolitan area -- Gatineau plus Les Collines-de-l'Outaouais -- into three ridings. So doesn't the middle one have to cross the river?

All this matters because the fourth Outaouais riding is one of Quebec's three new ridings. Which one is the "new" riding?" Hautes-Laurentides—Pontiac? It includes some Bloc polls at the east end of Papineau, and some Tory polls in Pontiac, but I suppose the NDP would have carried it? It makes me nervous because it's entirely outside metropolitan Gatineau.

[minionofmidas]

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Naming ridings for people who are, or should be, famous is a Quebec thing, not found elsewhere.

Australia wants a word with you.

[lilTommy]

I think John Peters Humphrey could be winnable for the NDP once Cotler retires and the NDP nominates someone with strong credentials in the Jewish community and then gets the anti-Conservative vote to coalesce behind the NDP.

With all that attention he got over the tories making calls saying he will retire, i doubt he will. Maybe one more go'round to give the Liberals a boost at trying to rebuild (like you said, he he retires adn the NDP will make a push for a good candidate, thats one more riding lost for them).
Probably the same goes for Garneau... unless he decides not to run after an expected failed leadership run (just what i'm hearing)

[RogueBeaver]

It's an open secret here in Montreal that Cotler will retire, BTW.

[lilTommy]

Ahhh gotcha, ouch, thats another riding in danger... and isn't it expected that Coderre will/might run for mayor? Bourassa looked pretty unchanged but with Coderre gone it might become vulnerable too.

Poor Pacetti, he has the unenviable choice of Maurice-Richard (looks to be a 3way edge Bloc) and Saint-Leonard (has become much more compeative for the NDP, almost edge to them).

[DL]

I expect Maria Mourani to be annhilated in 2015...it was s fluke that she was one of the four BQ survivors (in a super tight three way race) given that Ahuntsic was actually one of their most marginal seats in 06 and 08! She is actually a very non-descript incumbent and with a penniless BQ barely showing a pulse in 2015 - if the NDP nominates anyone remotely good - she will be blown away like dust in the wind. There are a lot of non-francophones in that riding and in an NDP-BQ two way race - the NDP would win easily.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Naming aside, I generally like this Montreal proposal better than the current map; the whole west-central region, especially the line along a little residential street through NDG, was really awkward on the old map.

[lilTommy]

I expect Maria Mourani to be annhilated in 2015...it was s fluke that she was one of the four BQ survivors (in a super tight three way race) given that Ahuntsic was actually one of their most marginal seats in 06 and 08! She is actually a very non-descript incumbent and with a penniless BQ barely showing a pulse in 2015 - if the NDP nominates anyone remotely good - she will be blown away like dust in the wind. There are a lot of non-francophones in that riding and in an NDP-BQ two way race - the NDP would win easily.

Interesting, i was giving the edge to Mourani since incumbent+non-tory+PQ held prov. riding... but she has been pretty much a no-show since the leadership loss, i just chalked that up to my TO-centric news
So simply put, the NDP and is hunting and hungry for calibre candidates... i wouldn't be surprised to see sitting NDP MPs facing contested nomination races... and some thankful for it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Australia wants a word with you.

There's also Islwyn in South Wales, arguably anyway.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Actually, upon closer inspection in the Mapviewer, there is a weird practice on the new map of putting boundaries one street over from a main street, thus having both sides of the main street in one riding. For example the boundary of Papineau runs along Birnham instead of Acadie, marooning one block of Parc Ex in John Peters Humphrey. Odd.

[Hatman 🍁]

I feel Im going to have to find my historic Quebec counties map in an effort to try and re-name all of these ridings...

[lilTommy]

I feel Im going to have to find my historic Quebec counties map in an effort to try and re-name all of these ridings...

... that would be preferable to what they have done

[minionofmidas]

Australia wants a word with you.

There's also Islwyn in South Wales, arguably anyway.

No. (Well, yes, it's there. But it's named for the hill and ancient parish, and later urban district though that covered a much smaller area. Not for the poet who also styled himself after the hill.)

Leverkusen and Telford, not to mention all the diverse St Albans and Saint-Denis etc pp have a much better claim if you count that. At least the cities are named for the people rather than the other way round.