Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012
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  Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012
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Author Topic: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012  (Read 176614 times)
LastVoter
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« Reply #225 on: July 08, 2012, 05:38:16 PM »
« edited: July 08, 2012, 05:41:07 PM by Senator Seatown »

OK Alberta,
- Red deer, could ahve been split due to growth in the central part of Alberta? could have been a forward-thinking move with the slpit perhaps?
- Lethbridge; this re-draw benefits the NDP in a huge way, the very strong tory polls in the south, all the way to the US are gone, now part of an odd shapped Foothills and Medicine Hat. Its now focused on metro Lethbridge by the looks of it. Still an uphill battle but this would be (should be) in the top 5 NDP targets.
- Edmonton; I like that they went with more urban focused ridings, with only one E-Wetaskiwin being almost all rural with only a sliver of suburban edmonton as a left over. (i count St. Albert-Edmonton as Ed, because the two cities just have grown into each other). E-Greisbach does look like it could be more favourable to the NDP with the addition of Calder and favourable prov. NDP areas. My thoughts are Ray Martin might be tapped out (age and his what 3 recent election losses) the NDP would need a stellar candidate here to win, and probably need the incumbent not to run.
E-Starthcona i think just got stronger for the NDP! its only major change was oddly adding Riverdale from E-East N of the River into it, which voted NDP... I find that odd, and would add it back to E-Greisbach just to keep the river as a natural boundary which i think works in most cases.
E-C basically gets a name change and losses only Meadowlark Park... and the lone NDP poll froim that area.


Looks like for Lethbridge seems to be not as beneficial as you say, the west bank of the river isn't included in the riding, which is the most dipper part of Lethbridge.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9sBXp66G86xOGE5MzdiNTQtNjExNy00ZjcyLTk3MzAtZjZhYjhlNzBiYWIw/edit?hl=en_US
edit: nvm they actually kept the Western Suburb. Somebody wants to explain why is the suburb more-left wing than most of the city?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #226 on: July 08, 2012, 07:43:10 PM »

That large orange area is actually an Indian Reserve.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #227 on: July 08, 2012, 08:14:56 PM »

That large orange area is actually an Indian Reserve.
There is a different orange area, the college campus west of Lethbridge
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lilTommy
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« Reply #228 on: July 09, 2012, 08:04:47 AM »

It still looks to be in the new riding to me? if your talking about the 6 polls, they were in MacLoud (sp) riding... from the description, Lethbridge and Leth.County are in the new riding the only removal was everything south of that?

http://daveberta.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Alberta-Federal-Electoral-Boundaries-2004-and-2015-proposed.jpg

via Daveberta...
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #229 on: July 09, 2012, 04:36:06 PM »

I should do this in this thread.

So some Ontario ideas.

Windsor should be divided into 2 ridings
The rest of Essex sans Lakeshore and Leamington should be one riding (Essex West)
Lakeshore and Leamington + 1/2 Chatham-Kent. Not sure how to divide Kent up well, you would have to divide Chatham in half or make a meandering border.
 
Sarnia-Lambton would stay the same
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex would lose much of its territory in Middlesex, keeping just Strathroy-Caradoc, Newbury, SW Middlesex & Adelaide-Metcalfe. To compensate, it gains part of Kent. Kent-Lambton-Middlesex would make a better name.

---
That's getting complicate, so let's try another area. (Niagara)

Niagara Falls: should lose about 1/2 of Ft Erie. Maybe make the QEW the border.
"Welland-Erie", taking in the remainder of Ft Erie, plus Pt Colborne, Wainfleet, Welland and Pelham.
St. Catharines (loses maybe a small bit)
Remainder of Niagara Region (Thorold, Grimsby, Lincoln, West Lincoln, part of St. Catharines). Maybe call in Niagara West or something.
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CalgaryManifesto
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« Reply #230 on: July 09, 2012, 07:22:23 PM »

I have the poll-by-poll data sets for the province, and can run the numbers if you are curious about the population/2011 results from any of the new ridings. Perhaps a bit easier than figuring it out off the maps from Alan Hall.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #231 on: July 09, 2012, 08:46:22 PM »

I have the poll-by-poll data sets for the province, and can run the numbers if you are curious about the population/2011 results from any of the new ridings. Perhaps a bit easier than figuring it out off the maps from Alan Hall.

Please share with us.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #232 on: July 10, 2012, 08:50:23 AM »

Oh yes, please do share with the whole class! Smiley

Hmm i wonder, Windsor's population shrank so (this is where that pop. data could be helpful) do they even qualify for two ridings? Currently Windsor has 1 fully/only the city (Windsor West) and the other the rest of the city plus the town of Tecumseh... but if they are below the quota?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #233 on: July 10, 2012, 09:41:49 AM »

Oh yes, please do share with the whole class! Smiley

Hmm i wonder, Windsor's population shrank so (this is where that pop. data could be helpful) do they even qualify for two ridings? Currently Windsor has 1 fully/only the city (Windsor West) and the other the rest of the city plus the town of Tecumseh... but if they are below the quota?

They would be slightly below quota. Remember while Windsor shrunk between 2006 and 2011, it gained between 2011 and 2011, so it's still bigger than it was for the last redistribution.

Here's another proposal for the Barrie area:

Divide the city in 2. North half goes with Oro-Medonte and Orillia (Barrie-Orillia)
South half goes with Innisfil (Barrie-Innisfil)

While Simcoe County is good for 4 ridings, the Barrie situation wouldn't make 2 other ridings work within the County. 
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Holmes
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« Reply #234 on: July 10, 2012, 04:23:25 PM »

If Northern Ontario loses a riding, I'll be pissed but not surprised.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #235 on: July 10, 2012, 04:34:02 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2012, 04:37:48 PM by Hatman »

If Northern Ontario loses a riding, I'll be pissed but not surprised.

We in Bruce Hyer's office are working on a campaign to keep Northern Ontario at 10 seats. Here's the website: http://www.standupfornorthernontario.ca/ (note, I'm the one in the green in the picture Cheesy ; & most of the content on the site (eg the FAQ) was written by me )

Anyways, for all those who want to make your own maps, I put the populations of all the municipalities in Southern Ontario onto a map (bigger version in the gallery) to make things easier [populations are in thousands by the way]:

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Novelty
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« Reply #236 on: July 10, 2012, 11:14:06 PM »

I'm the one in the green in the picture Cheesy
I had this impression that you had curly hair.  I have no idea why Tongue

How many seats is ON getting this time around?  With the increase in the number of seats, how many of the northern seats are undersized?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #237 on: July 10, 2012, 11:44:05 PM »

Ontario's getting 15 more seats. The FAQ section on that site shows how undersized each Northern Ontario seat is.
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Novelty
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« Reply #238 on: July 10, 2012, 11:48:33 PM »

According to that table only Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing and Kenora are under the 25% threshhold and would require "special circumstances"...
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Poirot
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« Reply #239 on: July 11, 2012, 07:10:49 AM »

I would worry about the future of Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing. It is only 70% of the average Ontario size and the growth trend is not good. It lost 9% of its population between the two census. If there is no turnaround, if the riding doesn't disappear this time, it will in 10 years.

Perhaps there are a few thousand people living just south of the Ontario ridings that could be moved in and remap the some ridings. Algoma-Manitoulin needs about 10,000 people to be around 85% of average like many other northern ridings.

I looked at the commission's composition and the president is from North Bay so maybe he will have sympathy for Ontario northern ridings.

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lilTommy
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« Reply #240 on: July 11, 2012, 07:39:10 AM »

I was under the impression ON would keep the 10 norhtern ridings? Like the provincial goverment had.

Looks like you could expand Algoma-manitoulin-Kapuskasing into either Sault-Ste.Marie (move the Algoma portion back) or Nickel belt (maybe move Kilarney and main-land Manitoulin, is that enough?) to get its size up... then to compensate, Nicket Belt could take from Sudbury or expand East or South into Nipissing-Timiskaming or Parry South Muskoka.
I think the bigger problem will be Kenora; Both Thunder Bay and Timmins-James Bay ridings are close to that 25% already so it would probably take a drastic re-draw to make Kenora on par with the 25%.
What are the defines of "special circumstances?

Hatman.. awesome! thanks for the pop map... your far too helpful, do you have a N.On version aswell?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #241 on: July 11, 2012, 07:43:42 AM »

If you read the FAQ, you will see that the population of Northern Ontario decreased at a slower rate than the avrerage riding population of Ontario (yes it went down, thanks to the 15 new seats). This means that there is no reason for Northern Ontario to lose seats.

If you give some of Nickel Belt to the Algoma riding, then it becomes fine. Kenora was already a special circumstance, and it should be noted that it has at least 8000 more people than the census suggests because a lot of the reserves couldn't be enumerated due to forest fires (and a few due to opposition)

I was under the impression ON would keep the 10 norhtern ridings? Like the provincial goverment had.

Looks like you could expand Algoma-manitoulin-Kapuskasing into either Sault-Ste.Marie (move the Algoma portion back) or Nickel belt (maybe move Kilarney and main-land Manitoulin, is that enough?) to get its size up... then to compensate, Nicket Belt could take from Sudbury or expand East or South into Nipissing-Timiskaming or Parry South Muskoka.
I think the bigger problem will be Kenora; Both Thunder Bay and Timmins-James Bay ridings are close to that 25% already so it would probably take a drastic re-draw to make Kenora on par with the 25%.
What are the defines of "special circumstances?

Hatman.. awesome! thanks for the pop map... your far too helpful, do you have a N.On version aswell?

Provincially, Northern Ontario has 11 seats.. as the last federal redistribution took one out. As for doing a map of the North, it would be harder as it's a larger area and the municipalities are often smaller in area. BTW, I realized I forget the population of North Dumfries on the map, it has a population of 9000 (it's right next to Cambridge). All other municipalities omitted have less than 500 people.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #242 on: July 11, 2012, 07:58:14 AM »

Algoma really is a bastard riding. You can expand into northern Nickel Belt, but I don't think that there's enough people there. Perhaps you can take in Timmins, and then leave a smaller Timiskaming-James Bay riding that would be under the 25% threshold, but be large enough to be considered a special circumstance.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #243 on: July 11, 2012, 08:20:53 AM »
« Edited: July 11, 2012, 08:27:39 AM by lilTommy »

I thought Kenora might be "special" due to a large rural, disperesed and probably heavy Aboriginal population... like Churchill in MAN

I actually would like to see all of Kenora Dis. in Kenora... so have the new riding be Kenora & Rainy River dists. so that give us about 77K
So that means Timmins shifts down, Taking back the area around Kapuskasing thats currently in Algoma. So thats about 10K back (assuming that compensates for the lost area). Name would be Timmins-Cochrane
Leaving Algoma the need to expand by taking all of the Algoma portion of SSM and the previously mentioned portions of Nickel belt (everything noth of Greater Sudbury; Killarney and main-land manitoulin)... at this point i start to get lost without populations Tongue But thats my general idea...
- Nicket belt to take from Subdury (which can afford some chop off) as well as from Nipissing-Tim. and PSM to compensate.
- Left TBs ridings alone
... what ya think?
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CalgaryManifesto
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« Reply #244 on: July 12, 2012, 12:55:06 AM »

I still haven't hit the post count to allow for links, but the summaries for Calgary are up on my blog under "Federal Politics". They'll give the breakdown for the new ridings using the 2011 federal data, and the 2012 provincial election data.
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CalgaryManifesto
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« Reply #245 on: July 12, 2012, 12:55:39 AM »

If you have any specific ridings you want #s from, let me know. I have the full data sets for the provincial and federal campaigns for most of the country
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #246 on: July 12, 2012, 08:18:39 AM »

It would be nice to have the redistribution numbers for all of the proposed ridings in every province (except NB, I saw someone do that on their blog already).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #247 on: July 12, 2012, 08:21:01 AM »

For those who are interested, this is his blog: http://www.jbumstead.ca/

(hate to be nitpicky, but it's Calgary Centre, not Center Wink )
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #248 on: July 12, 2012, 02:44:19 PM »

Here it is folks, part 3 of BC (Northern Lower Mainland)

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/british-columbia-federal-riding.html
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #249 on: July 12, 2012, 02:53:32 PM »

Just looking at the PEI riding populations. The 4 ridings are more similar in population now then they were 10 years ago! I project no changes to those ridings. They are all within 1500 people of each other. So, I wonder what's taking them so long?
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