Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Wilfred Day]

Scarborough East  Lib 3.79% (Con 2nd)
Ancaster Con 14.85%- I assume 15% is your cut off?
London North Centre Con 12.29% (Lib 2nd)

Here's a more complete list:

Ontario NDP best marginals:
Welland—Fort Erie 38.71% (Con wins by 4.38%)
Sault Ste. Marie 37.23% (Con won by 4.21%)
Essex 35.34% (Con won by 12.65%)
Oshawa—Bowmanville 33.9% (Con wins by 15.15%)
Scarborough East 30.95% (Lib 3.81% over NDP, Con 2nd)
Oshawa—Durham 30.89% (Con wins by 24%)
Scarborough Centre 30.62% (Con wins by 4.27% over NDP, Lib 2nd)

Other NDP over 20%
Brant 30.1%
Sarnia—Lambton 29.91%
Ottawa—Vanier NDP 28.69% (Lib won by 9.4%)
Cambridge 28.34%
Kenora 28.13%
York West 27.85%
Ancaster 27.77% (Con wins by 14.85%)
Scarborough—Guildwood 26.68% (Lib won by 9.12% over NDP, Con 2nd)
Chatham-Kent 26.43%
Oxford 25.61%
Huron—Bruce 25.24%
London West 25.21%
Niagara West 25.19%
Peterborough 24.88%
Kitchener South—North Dumfries—Brant 24.79%
London North Centre 24.67%
Belleville—Napanee—Frontenac 24.6%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 24.56%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 24.03%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 23.97%
St. Catharines 23.82%
Etobicoke North 23.64%
Brampton Centre 23.07%
Waterdown—Glanbrook 22.79%
Niagara Falls 22.34%
Kitchener Centre 22.29%
Markham 22.28%
Whitby 22.01%
Prince Edward—Quinte West 21.81%
Don Valley East 21.76%
Kingston and the Islands 21.54%
Perth—Wellington 21.25%
Brampton North 21.27%
Kawartha Lakes—Port Hope—Cobourg 20.98%
Simcoe North 20.98%
Don Valley North 20.82%
Nipissing 20.36%
Barrie South 20.35%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 20.29%

[DL]

Regarding Welland - its worth noting that the reason why the proposed new riding of Welland is "notionally" Tory is that it absorbs the town of Fort Erie from the safe Tory seat of Niagara Falls. Its true that Fort Erie went CPC by a wide margin in May 2011 when it was part of Niagara Falls, but just 5 months later in the provincial election, the ONDP made a much bigger effort in the provincial riding of Niagara Falls and while they lost in what was a relatively close 3-way race - the NDP actually carried the town of Fort Erie and got a significantly higher % of the vote there than they had in the federal election. I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

[lilTommy]

Great point DL, and with the recent NDP victory in Kitchener-Waterloo that might indicate that those two NDP above 20% seats in that area (Cambridge and Kitchener Centre) are within reach with similar styled campaigns (good candidate, good ground game, leader presence)

It would be great to plug in some polls, poll average from this year perhaps, too see which new seats flip given the NDP numbers being much closer if not ahead of the tories. I assume those ON marginals and many of those 20+% ridings might jump into the NDPs hands such as ones they hold provincially like Essex.

[adma]

Oh, and said good NDP candidate was Fort Erie's ex-mayor, Wayne Redekop.  So definitely a "profile candidate" parallel to Fife in K-W...

[Smid]

I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

In addition, the local MP was merely a candidate in the previous election. By the time of the next election, he will have had a good few years to build up a personal profile within the Riding. This should be worth at least a couple of percent in parts of the Riding remaining in the new Welland-Fort Erie, possibly more as the personal vote of the previous Member will dissipate and in some cases perhaps switch to him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Regarding Welland - its worth noting that the reason why the proposed new riding of Welland is "notionally" Tory is that it absorbs the town of Fort Erie from the safe Tory seat of Niagara Falls. Its true that Fort Erie went CPC by a wide margin in May 2011 when it was part of Niagara Falls, but just 5 months later in the provincial election, the ONDP made a much bigger effort in the provincial riding of Niagara Falls and while they lost in what was a relatively close 3-way race - the NDP actually carried the town of Fort Erie and got a significantly higher % of the vote there than they had in the federal election. I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

Well, current polls suggest the NDP would the riding anyways based on a uniform swing, so we shouldn't be too worried.

[lilTommy]

I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

In addition, the local MP was merely a candidate in the previous election. By the time of the next election, he will have had a good few years to build up a personal profile within the Riding. This should be worth at least a couple of percent in parts of the Riding remaining in the new Welland-Fort Erie, possibly more as the personal vote of the previous Member will dissipate and in some cases perhaps switch to him.

Not really, Malcolm Allen, the MP, was elected in 08 so in the 11 election he was the incumbent. Before that he was a Pelham councillor from 03-08. So he was not just a candidate but was of the calibre of Fife and the likes.

But what becomes really interesting on the Provincial side, is if elections ontario adopts the new ridings (since the provincial are basically the same as the federal minus Northern ON)... this would mean that Wayne Redekop the former mayor of For erie and candidate in Niagara Falls... could go up against Cindy Forster who is the MPP for Welland (former councillor and mayor of Welland).

[Smid]

I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

In addition, the local MP was merely a candidate in the previous election. By the time of the next election, he will have had a good few years to build up a personal profile within the Riding. This should be worth at least a couple of percent in parts of the Riding remaining in the new Welland-Fort Erie, possibly more as the personal vote of the previous Member will dissipate and in some cases perhaps switch to him.

Not really, Malcolm Allen, the MP, was elected in 08 so in the 11 election he was the incumbent. Before that he was a Pelham councillor from 03-08. So he was not just a candidate but was of the calibre of Fife and the likes.

But what becomes really interesting on the Provincial side, is if elections ontario adopts the new ridings (since the provincial are basically the same as the federal minus Northern ON)... this would mean that Wayne Redekop the former mayor of For erie and candidate in Niagara Falls... could go up against Cindy Forster who is the MPP for Welland (former councillor and mayor of Welland).

Oh, sorry, my mistake. You're right, of course.

[Wilfred Day]

But what becomes really interesting on the Provincial side, is if elections ontario adopts the new ridings (since the provincial are basically the same as the federal minus Northern ON)... this would mean that Wayne Redekop the former mayor of For erie and candidate in Niagara Falls... could go up against Cindy Forster who is the MPP for Welland (former councillor and mayor of Welland).

Let's wait for the outcome of the hearings before we start the nomination battle.

A better configuration would be:

NIAGARA FALLS--FORT ERIE would have a population of 112,957, 6.2 per cent over quotient, entirely within the existing and growing electoral district of Niagara Falls.
ST. CATHARINES—NIAGARA-ON-THE-LAKE would have about 88,825 people from St. Catharines, for a total of about 104,225, about 2 per cent below quotient, 85 per cent within the present St. Catharines electoral district.
ST. CATHARINES—LINCOLN—GRIMSBY would unite the other 42,575 residents of St. Catharines with the growing municipalities of Lincoln, West Lincoln and Grimsby, with a population of 104,224, about 2 below quotient, being 59 per cent within the present electoral district of Niagara West—Glanbrook.
NIAGARA CENTRE would unite the City of Welland with the municipalities of Port Colborne, Thorold, Pelham and Wainfleet, with a population of 109,940, 3.37 percent over quotient, being 85% within the present electoral district of Welland. This moves Pelham from a Lincoln (Niagara North) alignment to a Welland alignment, respecting the fact that it is part of many groups like the Welland Pelham Chamber of Commerce, the YMCA branch serving Welland/Pelham, and Community Living Welland Pelham, and is in Niagara South Judicial District. Unlike the existing electoral district of Welland, NIAGARA CENTRE would include no part of the City of St. Catharines.

[Wilfred Day]

I was told two nights ago by people who claimed to know, that the Ontario Commission had applied last month to the Chief Electoral Officer for an extension to the deadlines and had been turned down. As a result, they had to hurriedly publish boundaries that they were still working on and were not satisfied with.

Does anyone know if this is true?

Commissions have to report no later than December 21, 2012. In Ontario, with so many centres needing hearings and a lot of travel needed between them, to meet that deadline they had to start by October 9, and publish a month before that. Which they supposedly did not want to do. But the Chief Electoral Officer supposedly said "get on with the hearings."

This would explain some of the odder Ontario proposals. If the Commission knew they were odd, they should be easy to change.

But can anyone verify this? 

[adma]

Oh, and said good NDP candidate was Fort Erie's ex-mayor, Wayne Redekop.  So definitely a "profile candidate" parallel to Fife in K-W...

...and by way of addendum, just as K-W was considered "highly unlikely", Redekop's candidacy marked a 180 from the ONDP bombing big time in Niagara Falls in 2007 (parachute candidate under 10% and behind even the Greens)

[Smid]

I borrowed Earl's excellent redistribution map, and transposed the 2008 election results onto it. This is the result. Obvious credit to Earl for putting together the map of the redistribution.

[Novelty]

Wow @ the map, Smid!  It looks gorgeous.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, the NDP still wouldn't have won any Saskatchewan seats (bad omen, for sure). Interesting to see they would have picked up 2 seats in Nova Scotia. Certainly good news going into a bad election year for the party in that province.

[Hatman 🍁]

More observations:

NDP loses Outremont
Tories gain Toronto North. Looking at poll maps, you could easily see this giant Tory chunk in the middle of Toronto, but no seats. This puts that chunk into one riding.

Tories also gain a seat in Brampton (Brampton Centre). Weird to look at.

[Wilfred Day]

Interesting to see they would have picked up 2 seats in Nova Scotia.

Note that the NDP wins the Redistributed South Shore—St. Margarets in 2008 but loses it in 2011. Of course, on the present boundaries the Conservative 2008 victory margin was 932 but in 2011 it increased to 2915.

The NDP wins the lightly redistributed Elmwood—Transcona in 2008 but loses it in 2011; hardly surprising since that's what happened.

[lilTommy]

Interesting to see they would have picked up 2 seats in Nova Scotia.

Note that the NDP wins the Redistributed South Shore—St. Margarets in 2008 but loses it in 2011. Of course, on the present boundaries the Conservative 2008 victory margin was 932 but in 2011 it increased to 2915.

The NDP wins the lightly redistributed Elmwood—Transcona in 2008 but loses it in 2011; hardly surprising since that's what happened.

I wonder with current polling would the NDP win Elmwood-Transcona and South Shore-St. margarets?

2011, were the wins above chalked up to lower Liberal vote?

Awesome map too btw

[Hatman 🍁]

More like the fact that the NDP was the provincial party in power, and was not popular at the time (in Manitoba) and still is not in NS.

[Hatman 🍁]

Global did the redistribution of the 2011 Ontario provincial results: http://www.globaltoronto.com/6442717208/story.html

No  breakdowns though, but the Liberals would've got a majority. NDP has no net gain or loss, even holds the Welland--Erie riding.

[Smid]

Wow @ the map, Smid!  It looks gorgeous.

Yep! Gold star for me for staying between the lines! Earl made it, I just coloured it in.

[adma]

NDP has no net gain or loss, even holds the Welland--Erie riding.

Well, why not, considering that they had a bigger Welland margin provincially than federally, and that Fort Erie was (thanks to the candidate) their strong spot in Niagara Falls...

[Smid]

Wow, the NDP still wouldn't have won any Saskatchewan seats (bad omen, for sure). Interesting to see they would have picked up 2 seats in Nova Scotia. Certainly good news going into a bad election year for the party in that province.

I think vote splitting by the Grits may have been responsible for that. Justin Trudeau may yet help Harper get another majority... I can't see that sort of vote splitting allowing the NDP to be locked out again.

[Wilfred Day]

Eyeballing, the 15 "new" (no incumbent) electoral districts are:
Nepean-Carleton
Kawartha Lakes—Port Hope—Cobourg
Markham—Unionville
Aurora—Richmond Hill
Oak Ridges
Mount Pleasant
Don Valley North
Scarborough East
Mississauga Centre
Brampton West
Brampton Centre
Halton
Waterdown—Glanbrook
Kitchener South—North Dumfries—Brant 
Barrie North

However, although more of Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale goes into Ancaster than into Waterdown—Glanbrook, Waterdown—Glanbrook has a transposed Conservative majority of 14774, while Ancaster has a transposed Conservative majority of only 7618. So Ancaster is more likely the "open" riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, and Ancaster went for the OLP last year, while the other riding wouldve gone PC.

[Wilfred Day]

"Nepean-Carleton" has 91,000 people. WTF. Change the name, change boundaries. It can afford to take in 10,000 people from Ottawa South I think.

I suspect that while it's a bit under populated right now, the commission has looked at projections that say that riding is likely to grow a lot over the next ten years.

Normally Commissions decline to look at projected growth, too speculative, and the Act tells them to look at "the population of each electoral district in the province as a result thereof shall, as close as reasonably possible, correspond to the electoral quota for the province, that is to say, the quotient obtained by dividing the population of the province as ascertained by the census by the number of members of the House of Commons to be assigned to the province." (Plus community of interest, community of identity, historical pattern, and manageable geographic size.) Not projected growth.

One counter-example is the 2002 Manitoba Commission which said "In some situations where the population trends indicate the strong probability of future growth within an electoral district, the boundaries have been drawn in anticipation of this development." Did any others say that in 2002?