Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting.  I knew that Irwin Cotler and Stephane Dion were not happy what happened to their ridings, and from what I heard I think they had a real case. 

Is this proposal publicly available?

The Liberal one is. It's posted in this thread somewhere.

[lilTommy]

Anyone know what the NDP proposal was?

... agreed, i think the TONDP ridings should have worked together to put forward a united proposal for the cities ridings. then again they are all established risings and not as connected as people would think they are. still fiefdoms all on there own. Were as in quebec each riding is still rather dependant on each other (i would assume they would be).

[Poirot]

I have links to the Liberal Party of Canada - Quebec proposals.

The proposal originally made with 19 ridings on the island of Montreal, description and map is here:
http://quebec.liberal.ca/en/uncategorized/new-electoral-boundaries-of-the-island-of-montreal/

Now they have published a proposal with 18 ridings since parties commented they would prefer to stay at 18.
http://quebec.liberal.ca/en/uncategorized/electoral-boundaries-island-montreal/

In bonus I also give their proposal for Montreal South Shore suburbs (in French).
http://quebec.liberal.ca/uncategorized/nouvelles-delimitations-des-circonscriptions-dela-rive-sud-de-montreal/

They make a riding called Lemoyne which is long and narrow with part of Longueuil, Greenfield Park and part of Saint-Hubert. Saint-Hubert is split in three three ridings.

I have not seen other parties proposals. I hope the commission is not influenced more by one party in making decisions.

[eggo31]

This is my first time ever posting to this forum, that I have been following for a long time, so hope I am doing it right.

I was also at the Federal Boundaries Commission Hearing in Toronto yesterday and just a couple of points.

With regards to placing Liberty Village in Davenport, as I think a later presenter said, Olivia Chow misspoke and meant to say to place in it Parkdale-High Park instead.

And, yes, there was not much coordination with the NDP in the downtown ridings, but at least there is a coordinated party proposal for Scarborough and its 6 ridings, which basically keeps Scarborough Southwest, my home riding, in-tact, keeps Scarborough-Rouge River in place by pushing it eastward to lose population, (it's westernmost reaches being picked up by Agincourt), pushes Scarborough Centre eastward (while eliminating Scarborough-Guildwood), pushes Scarborough-Agincourt north and eastward, and creates the new Scarborough riding in the west (Wexford, taking in the western half of Centre and the southwestern part of Agincourt) and leaves the remainer in a re-oriented Scarborough East that does not ridiculously go on both sides of the 401 and split up Malvern and Morningside Heights.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have links to the Liberal Party of Canada - Quebec proposals.

The proposal originally made with 19 ridings on the island of Montreal, description and map is here:
http://quebec.liberal.ca/en/uncategorized/new-electoral-boundaries-of-the-island-of-montreal/

Now they have published a proposal with 18 ridings since parties commented they would prefer to stay at 18.
http://quebec.liberal.ca/en/uncategorized/electoral-boundaries-island-montreal/

In bonus I also give their proposal for Montreal South Shore suburbs (in French).
http://quebec.liberal.ca/uncategorized/nouvelles-delimitations-des-circonscriptions-dela-rive-sud-de-montreal/

They make a riding called Lemoyne which is long and narrow with part of Longueuil, Greenfield Park and part of Saint-Hubert. Saint-Hubert is split in three three ridings.

I have not seen other parties proposals. I hope the commission is not influenced more by one party in making decisions.

The NDP seems to be new at this. All they had to was pick up the phone and call me, I would have been more than happy to help them out by creating a few pro-NDP gerrymanders. After all, I created a few absurd ones on this forum.

This is my first time ever posting to this forum, that I have been following for a long time, so hope I am doing it right.

I was also at the Federal Boundaries Commission Hearing in Toronto yesterday and just a couple of points.

With regards to placing Liberty Village in Davenport, as I think a later presenter said, Olivia Chow misspoke and meant to say to place in it Parkdale-High Park instead.

And, yes, there was not much coordination with the NDP in the downtown ridings, but at least there is a coordinated party proposal for Scarborough and its 6 ridings, which basically keeps Scarborough Southwest, my home riding, in-tact, keeps Scarborough-Rouge River in place by pushing it eastward to lose population, (it's westernmost reaches being picked up by Agincourt), pushes Scarborough Centre eastward (while eliminating Scarborough-Guildwood), pushes Scarborough-Agincourt north and eastward, and creates the new Scarborough riding in the west (Wexford, taking in the western half of Centre and the southwestern part of Agincourt) and leaves the remainer in a re-oriented Scarborough East that does not ridiculously go on both sides of the 401 and split up Malvern and Morningside Heights.

Welcome to the Forum

I envy anyone who was able to go to the commissions.

[Holmes]

Maybe we should swap phone numbers Earl, the NDP seems to love giving me calls.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe we should swap phone numbers Earl, the NDP seems to love giving me calls.

For money though... They keep calling me for that too.

They some how found my work number, which I've only given out to my partner and my parents...

[King of Kensington]

Yes, Dan Harris spoke as well as some other Scarborough reps and yes, they have a "Scarborough strategy."  Scarborough is tricky because it is entitled to 6 ridings but there isn't enough population north of the 401 for three full ridings there.  I'm pretty sure the bulk of Scarborough East though lives south of the 401 however as the northeast corner of Scarborough is largely made up of Rouge Park, the Zoo, etc.

The irony of the whole thing is that experienced MPs Olivia Chow and Carolyn Bennett gave the most incoherent deputations of the politicians who spoke while rookie MPs Dan Harris, Craig Scott and Matthew Kellway were far better.

Whether Chow wanted Liberty Village to go to Davenport or Parkdale-High Park wasn't clear and it made no sense why it "belongs" in P-HP more than T-S.  

The population south in the census tracts south of Queen between Dufferin and the Don is 73,825 according to the 2011 census (census tracts 8-17).  That's not enough for a waterfront riding and the "projected growth" argument doesn't cut it.  

The creation of Mount Pleasant makes eminent sense.  

[MaxQue]

Maybe we should swap phone numbers Earl, the NDP seems to love giving me calls.

NDP never called me, and they don't have to feel compelled to do it.

[lilTommy]

Yes, Dan Harris spoke as well as some other Scarborough reps and yes, they have a "Scarborough strategy."  Scarborough is tricky because it is entitled to 6 ridings but there isn't enough population north of the 401 for three full ridings there.  I'm pretty sure the bulk of Scarborough East though lives south of the 401 however as the northeast corner of Scarborough is largely made up of Rouge Park, the Zoo, etc.

The irony of the whole thing is that experienced MPs Olivia Chow and Carolyn Bennett gave the most incoherent deputations of the politicians who spoke while rookie MPs Dan Harris, Craig Scott and Matthew Kellway were far better.

Whether Chow wanted Liberty Village to go to Davenport or Parkdale-High Park wasn't clear and it made no sense why it "belongs" in P-HP more than T-S.  

The population south in the census tracts south of Queen between Dufferin and the Don is 73,825 according to the 2011 census (census tracts 8-17).  That's not enough for a waterfront riding and the "projected growth" argument doesn't cut it.  

The creation of Mount Pleasant makes eminent sense.  

Well i'm pleased to see Dan (a friend) do such a great job at the commission, with Two young MPs i think their working to make names of themselves (in particular Rathika)... Olivia, wake up lady

But just to comment, not that history makes a huge influence but you have to got back to 1904 where you have a "waterfront" riding in TO (that was the old Toronto South riding). If you look at the 33-47 boundaries... there all sliver ridings running N-S, the old Davenport riding looks to be no wider then 2 blocks south of what looks like College. Talk about Awkward

Its odd, to split TS the way Olivia was suggesting since with the new proposals wasn't the new riding marginally NDP friendly/winnable? I think TC was the terrible riding, which has been improved and with  the proposal and improved on even more with King of Kensingtons move to keep Church-Wellesley within TC is really the best option.

Gah, i need to get my butt back on one of the executives here in TO... i could have told them about your work Earl

[King of Kensington]

Olivia came across as really unprofessional - it really came across as if she was trying to gerrymander Trinity-Spadina to her liking!  And yes, Trinity-Spadina remains totally winnable for the NDP: it not only loses the Annex/Seaton Village but also the University to Yonge zone below College.  So their share of the vote doesn't change much at all.

But again a "Toronto South" doesn't even fall within the quite generous quota for Southern Ontario. So I think it's a non-starter.

[King of Kensington]

Here is Pam McConnell's letter to the Commission:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Toronto Centre deputation, written by John Goyeau, is also available online (google "John Goyeau NDP")

[MaxQue]

There really is a "Jack Layton Ferry Terminal"?

[Hatman 🍁]

Cool. Probably the first time "gay community of interest" has ever come up in a redistribution meeting.

[King of Kensington]

In Vancouver too, the NDP worked together.  Libby Davies and Don Davies for instance argued for their riding boundaries to be stretched a bit west to Ontario St., the historic divide between the east side and west side.  In Vancouver the Commission ended up with very similar population numbers for the 6 ridings.  The shift proposed by Davies and Davies would add a modest population onto their ridings but it wouldn't be all that much and still within quota but better reflect the community of interest principle.

If it were up to me though, I'd get rid of that Granville monstrosity.  It looks like those old strip wards in Toronto, and have the west side divided instead on an east/west axis rather than a north/south one.    Maybe call the northern one Vancouver-Point Grey and have Quadra go south of 16th.   Should have sent a submission to the BC Commission as well.

[King of Kensington]

The Ontario Commission is still accepting written submissions.   There's still a few more days.

[King of Kensington]

Population south of Front St. and the CNR tracks: 39,839

Population south of Queen between Dufferin and the Don: 74,723

Ontario riding quota: 106,213

25% deviation (minimum): 79,660

This condo/waterfront riding idea isn't going to fly...

[mileslunn]

Don't know they can do much here, but it seems the BC re-distribution was heavily tilted in favour of the Tories as the NDP would have won fewer seats despite new seats being added.  Off course too there is the incumbency as well as the amount of resources the party puts in so it is quite possible in ridings the NDP knew they had no chance of winning they just didn't bother putting anything into them thus meaning no matter how you re-drew the map it would favour the Tories, albeit I don't totally buy it. 

As for Quebec, I think if you use the 2006 and 2008 election results you can see it was badly drawn up when you consider especially on the Island of Montreal they combined a couple of staunchly separtist areas with staunchly federalist ones.  The 2011 election masked this as the NDP was able to appeal to both separtists and federalists but still for the sake of community they probably should be separated.

[Wilfred Day]

Now we know the limits of the Ontario Commission's tolerance for smaller southern Ontario ridings: their revised proposals give Niagara West an estimated population of 86,528, 18.5% below quotient, and 20.1% below the Southern Ontario average; and give Burlington North–Milton South an estimated population of 89,354, 15.9% below quotient, and 17.5% below the Southern Ontario average.

Here is Pam McConnell's letter to the Commission:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's a new definition of chutzpah. Toronto has a population of 2,615,060. With Southern Ontario districts having an average population of 108,287, Toronto has claim to 24.15 electoral districts but will get 25. I was sure it would be 24.

The 25th riding came from the Windsor-London area, which I thought would get an extra riding, ending the Lambton—Kent—Middlesex monster which is half in the London area, half in the Lambton-Kent area more oriented to Windsor. No, it continues, leaving Essex with 127,452 people (20.0% over quotient), Windsor West with 118,973 (12.01% over quotient), and Windsor—Tecumseh with 113,783 (7.13% over quotient). That's a total of 0.391 of a riding. London West has 118,734 (11.79 over quotient), London North Centre has 117,899 (11.0% over quotient), London—Fanshawe has 115,685 (8.92% over quotient), and Elgin—Middlesex—London has 114,294 (7.61% over quotient). That's another 0.393 of a riding, totalling 0.784 of a riding, which I thought was enough for an extra riding. Too bad. Toronto wants it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Disgusting. Looks like these small suburban ridings you speak of will just further cement a Tory majority.

[King of Kensington]

I agree with Wilfred Day.  I attended the hearings and there too many "rep by pop" types with their talking points.  

[MaxQue]

I agree with Wilfred Day.  I attended the hearings and there too many "rep by pop" types with their talking points.  

At an NDP assembly on another subject, I heard someone rambling than PEI had 4 seats, while they were the most dense province, than they didn't needed as much.

[Wilfred Day]

Disgusting. Looks like these small suburban ridings you speak of will just further cement a Tory majority.

The smaller NIAGARA WEST resulted from letting NDP voters in Welland stay together as they wished, except that they lose Tory Wainfleet. NIAGARA WEST is smaller because Welland gets Thorold back as they both wanted. Welland/NIAGARA CENTRE is great. Why complain? The four Niagara ridings are still the same total.

NIAGARA FALLS is now 128,357, unchanged from the existing riding, 20.85 % over quotient. Bad, but if they shed Niagara-on-the-Lake which is added to ST. CATHARINES, and the west end of St. Catharines is added to NIAGARA WEST, other than making the numbers better, will the Tories be any worse off?

If the NDP is hurt here, it's by Hamilton Centre becoming HAMILTON WEST--DUNDAS (what is the transposed vote?) while HAMILTON EAST--STONEY CREEK shifts a little west and becomes an NDP sinkhole named HAMILTON EAST, while the new STONEY CREEK--MOUNTAIN EAST needs someone to check: what is the transposed vote (Tory?) The new HAMILTON MOUNTAIN WEST looks safe enough for the NDP?

And Halton is a puzzle: five ridings with a total of 501,669 people, average 100,334, 5.5% under quotient. Not ideal, but at least it gets rid of the hybrid WELLINGTON--HALTON HILLS which was half in the GTA and half north of Guelph, centred on Georgetown and on Fergus 53 minutes drive away, and replaces it with the equally Tory WELLINGTON--WOOLWICH. A victory for community of interest, if nothing else. Two cheers.

[King of Kensington]

Not only that but some idiot got into an argument with Judge Valin about the definition of Northern Ontario.  He pointed to Parry Sound-Muskoka (!) as an example of how Toronto was being shortchanged by "rural ridings."  When Valin said that this was a NORTHERN riding the deputant proceeded to insist that it wasn't and it was really at the French River.  Valin said he was a resident of Northern Ontario all his life and Parry Sound and Muskoka have long been considered part of the North.

[Hatman 🍁]

There is still a debate as to whether Parry Sound-Muskoka is in the North or not. One could even argue Parry Sound is and Muskoka isn't. PS isn't geographically part of the north, but it is culturally part of northern Ontario in many respects.  But when it comes to dividing up the ridings, PSM is always in the north.