Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Oops, I meant Kent + Northumberland. Of course, this sets off some dominos. But you can't be linking the Miramichi with western NB!

Let the dominoes fall!

And what exactly is wrong with that map? It's not as equal, but it's very good, and is probably close to the map I would make if I had the time. One thing I would change is avoiding the county split in Victoria (which I mentioned earlier - locals have fought over that on numerous occasions. (In fact, it should be like it is now, with the split in Madawaska, with St-Andre in Tobique-Mactaquac). 

[Krago]

And what exactly is wrong with that map? It's not as equal, but it's very good, and is probably close to the map I would make if I had the time.

How many provincial maps have you created?  I can only find a Newfoundland and Labrador map on your blog.

[Hatman 🍁]

And what exactly is wrong with that map? It's not as equal, but it's very good, and is probably close to the map I would make if I had the time.

How many provincial maps have you created?  I can only find a Newfoundland and Labrador map on your blog.
[/quote]

That's correct. I wish I had the software you did, I would be able to make all sorts of proposals. But I remember when the original NB boundaries coming out, I made a rough map but never posted it anywhere. It looks similar to the one you made.

[Krago]

http://blog.geo-tag.info/2010/01/16/free-alternative-to-mapinfo-and-arcview/

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2011/geo/bound-limit/bound-limit-eng.cfm

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2011/geo/ref/geosuite-eng.cfm

[Wilfred Day]

For what it's worth, here's my New Brunswick proposal.  It creates Wilf's Moncton-Dieppe riding, while maintaining ridiculously equal district populations around the province.

Lovely, other than Miramichi--Central Leftovers.

[trebor204]

Manitoba, Nova Scotia and PEI boundaries are now official

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=nouveau&document=index&lang=e

[Krago]

[delete]

[eggo31]

front page of today's Scarborough Mirror:
"Federal Riding Changes Irk Karygiannis"



I knew this was coming. I knew that he wouldn't be happy about the proposal.

The boundary commission adopted the NDP proposal for Scarborough down to the street - 100% copy - exact boundaries - that I advocated for at the November hearing at Metro Hall.

Karygiannis is irked that the NDP's proposal splits up the Agincourt community, and yes the new Scarborough-Wexford does that, but this is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't situation".

If the commission / House procedural committee listens to Mr. Karygiannis and returns to its previous proposal, it will split up Scarborough-Rouge River.

I think one community does have to be split somewhere along the line.

I challenge anyone to come up with a boundary proposal for Scarborough (with 6 ridings) not splitting Malvern, Morningside Heights, or Agincourt and creating a riding that doesn't cross the 401. Impossible.

Even a proposal by Hatman / Earl that I have seen on his blog, "Canadian Election Atlas" has a riding that crosses the 401 and kinds of splits up Agincourt.

I would post the link, but I can not seem to post links if I have not yet made 20 posts.

[eggo31]

and I mean 6 ridings of approx. equal population. I am aware that provincially until 1999, there were 6 ridings in Scarborough, with none crossing the 401?

2 north of the highway (North and Agincourt), 4 south of (Ellesmere, Centre, West and East)?

but the population wouldn't justify only having 2 north of the 401 today.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, you have to cross the 401. Only way around it would be to have a riding that crosses Victoria Park, and then you run into a whole new slew of issues.

Scarborough-Agincourt has to get smaller (from what I recall), so that community is going to get divided. Although, I think on my map I was careful not to split the Asian community too much. And of course if any riding shouldn't cross the 401, it's Scarborough-RR, because of the natural boundaries in that area. (Which is was the first proposed map was terrible).

[Krago]

Paging Dr. Krago...

Scarborough Alternative Map

This plan keeps six more-or-less equally populated seats in Scarborough at the expense of having two ridings that cross the 401 instead of one.  It should make people from all (important) parties smile:

- Jim Karygiannis keeps his existing riding - renamed Scarborough Northwest - almost intact.  Jimmy K is the Luca Brasi of the Liberal Party of Canada.  When Jimmy's happy, everybody's happy.

- the Tories would notionally win three seats in Scarberia, a gain of two from the Commission's Report

- the NDP would notionally win or be close (within 5%) in four seats, up from three

Since the neighbourhoods of Agincourt North and Agincourt South-Malvern West lie entirely within the boundaries of the new proposed north-central seat, it made sense to call that riding Scarborough-Agincourt, and rename the northwestern seat... drum roll please... Scarborough Northwest!

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. I thought Agincourt was the entire NW of Scarborough... as in all of the Chinese area. But I hadn't realized the Chinese area was big enough for 2 ridings. Makes you wonder what Jimmy the Greek is doing representing them.

[Krago]

Here is another Scarborough option that keeps all of Malvern together and provides a slightly better population balance.

Scarborough Alternative Map - Option 2

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the demographic differences between your NW riding  and your Agincourt riding? Or are the political differences just because they are in different ridings?

[eggo31]

Thanks, Krago.

Great work!

And most of all love that you keep my home riding of Scarborough Southwest in-tact.... -With no boundary changes.

I think that both maps most can be pleased with, from Liberal to NDP to Conservative.

[Poirot]

Oh God Agreed, the naming convention chosen is a huge improvement. Looks like they went with 18 instead of 19 ridings on the island of Montreal too, saved a rural riding? Can anyone explain to me the new riding Lemoyne? its a very odd shaped thin stretch of a riding... looks like leftovers to me.

Lemoyne is thin and long, in reality a little less than it looks because the part east (or south) of highway 30 is not a residential area but it is still long.

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/qc/now/reports/Longueuil.pdf

It starts near the river at the subway station, takes a part of Longueuil (the original city of Longueuil), a part of Saint-Hubert (now a borough of new city of Longueuil) and Greenfield Park (now a borough) where it is printed Lemoyne on the map, and then on the other side of Greenfield Park an elongated part of Saint-Hubert. The long straight line division between Lemoyne on one side and the ridings of Longueuil and Montarville follows a rail track (and street). It is entirely in the new city of Longueuil but includes former towns. Lemoyne was the name of a small town that is now part of the Vieux-Longueuil borough I think, too small to even exist as a borough.

I would prefer if there was more of a square shape than a narrow territory. Once they decided  Saint-Lambert would not longer share a riding with the city of Longueuil and also remove the half of Boucherville that shared another riding with Longueuil, they were left with dividing Longueuil which has a population of 231,000. Or they already planned to put a part of Longueuil (of the Saint-Hubert borough) in Montarville to get close to the provincial quotient.
Then the task is diffcult to split the remaining 210,000 people in Longueuil in two.

Road 116 separates the Vieux-Longueuil borough on one side and Saint-Hubert and Greenfield Park borough on the other side (not perfect division like Saint-Hubert airport is on the Vieux-Longueuil side but a general rule). There are two road links that cross over, Tascherau blvd (above the E of Lemoyne on the map) and chemin Chambly or Cousineau blvd (road 112 on the map). The latter makes the link for the part of Saint-Hubert that is in the Longueuil riding. I don't know if they could do something by trading that Saint-Hubert borough bloc in Longueuil for part of Vieux-Longueuil borough in Lemoyne riding.

The Montreal south shore report is a near copy of the Liberal party proposal. You can compare maps.
https://quebec.liberal.ca/files/2012/10/Carte.pdf
They even suggested Lemoyne for their long thin riding.
https://quebec.liberal.ca/files/2012/10/M%C3%A9moire-Rive-Sud-v1.pdf

I don't know what the other parties proposed (or if they had a regional Montreal south shore proposal) but it looks like the Commission took it. The difference in the final report from the Liberal proposal is McMasterville is not in Montarville riding but I imagine the Liberal proposal had this because the Commission's first proposal put McMasterville in Montarville.

Brossard-Saint-Lambert is probably a good bet for the President of the Liberal party of Canada for Quebec to get elected back to the House.   


       

[Krago]

I don't know if they could do something by trading that Saint-Hubert borough bloc in Longueuil for part of Vieux-Longueuil borough in Lemoyne riding.

What do you think about this?

Longueuil - Alternative Map

[Hatman 🍁]

Gotta be a better way of dividing the south shore than that. Your Greenfield Park riding seems to divided by a freeway.

[Poirot]

I don't know if they could do something by trading that Saint-Hubert borough bloc in Longueuil for part of Vieux-Longueuil borough in Lemoyne riding.

What do you think about this?

Longueuil - Alternative Map

I like it better than the Commission's final report. With your alternative Saint-Hubert borough is in two ridings instead of being put in three ridings. You prove there are alternatives in splitting Longueuil in a different and realist way than what they have done (or copied from a submission).

If they had put this first as the proposal, there could have been feedback on minor adjustments like the possibility of not making Saint-Hubert-Greenfield Park go all the way up: put some of the nothern part in Vieux-Longueuil riding and put the southeast corner of Vieux-Longueuil in Saint-Hubert-Greenfield Park.

I've started to try to see what I could do to change the elongated Lemoyne riding but I need to modify two more ridings that border the two Longueuil ones. And it would mean going back to the current situation of Boucherville being in two ridings. I'm not a mapper so it will be hard to explain in words.

[Poirot]

Gotta be a better way of dividing the south shore than that. Your Greenfield Park riding seems to divided by a freeway.

On the alternative map of Saint-Hubert-Greenfield Park, do you mean divided by freeway in the southeast part (the other side of highway where it seems to be mostly unbuilt area)

or crossing over the road up from the Park name of the riding name on the map? That is where chemin Chambly crosses (under) the road. On the north side it is Saint-Hubert airport and the first couple of streets are still in Saint-Hubert borough.

[Hatman 🍁]

I meant Boul Sir Wilfrid Laurier. The area on the north side is isolated from the south. Makes for an unnatural looking riding.

[Krago]

Here are two more options for you folks to chew on.

Longueuil Alternative Map - Option 2

Longueuil Alternative Map - Option 3

[Harry Hayfield]

As we are now not having boundary changes here in the UK, may I ask how the procedure works in Canada (i.e is there a formal vote in Canada that says "Yes, these boundaries are in place for the next election?") and if so, when that vote takes place could someone do the maths to say "How similar is this new seat to the seat that it replaces?" like we had for the UK when say Ceredigion and North Pembroke was 100% of Ceredigion, 5% of Carmarthen East and 50% of Preseli Pembroke.

[Smid]

I think it's an independent commission, and Parliament rubber stamps it. That's how it is here, anyway. The current one, the notional results for the new proposed electorates, based on last election figures, is at pollmaps.CA, if I remember correctly. I think the link is somewhere earlier in the thread. I have it saved as a favourite, if no one posts it before tomorrow, I'll post it then. Krago and Earl do some great work along those lines, too. I started on it for Alberta provincially. Over here, Antony Green does that and posts the results on his blog, and he's, well, he's Antony Green, so it's obviously accurate.

[MaxQue]

Usually, the Elections Office is calculating notionals after the map is definitive and publish them.

For the process, Harry, it began last spring. Each province has a commission and it's appointed. Each commission is chaired by a judge, which is selected by the Chief Justice of each province and two other members, which are selected by the Speaker of the House (Andrew Scheer, Conservative).

The commission is then drawing a proposition (proposed limits) (late spring and early summer). After that, people have a time to send comments and documents. The Commission must also tour the province and hold public hearings in various locations of the provinces, to hear comments about it.

After that, they write a report (limits at the report). That report is sent at the House of Commons where the Procedure Standing Committee has to hear the objections of every MP to the report map. After hearing the objections of MPs, they write a report about which changes are supported by the Committee which is sent to the Commission. Then, the commission must answer the objections, either by modifying the map or explaining why they keep the map as they drew it in the report.