Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Smid]

Anyone want to convert those population by ridings Earl posted into green-red over-under maps? I'm happy to do it but want to check no one else has started on it yet. Could probably do two different ones, over/under the average enrolment across Canada and a second one by province, since PEI and Saskatchewan, etc, will be under all over (or just about all over), so by province will be helpful for identifying specific areas likely to be redistributed.

[Smid]

I'll use the averages you've already calculated for the purposes of the over/under provincial averages map:

Therefore, the number of ridings for each province is as follows (accompanied by each provincial average)--

ON- 121/106,213
QC- 78/101,321
BC- 42/104,763
AB- 34/107,213
MB- 14/86,305
SK- 14/73,813
NS- 11/83,793
NB- 10/75,117
NL- 7/73,505
PEI- 4/35,051

[Smid]

Here is the Population per Riding relative to the average desired population per riding for each province. Pink/Red shows a riding with a population below the desired population, after factoring in the new number of seats for that province, Green shows a riding with a population above the desired population. The territories, having just one riding, obviously have their total population in that one seat and therefore it's equal to the territory's average.

[Smid]

Here's population per riding relative to the national average. Bear in mind that both of these maps factor in the new number of seats, so therefore more seats should be above average than would be the case if the old number of seats were used.



Interestingly, Alberta is the only province in which every riding is over-populated, and Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province not gaining seats, in which one of the ridings still meets the national average (mainly thanks to Labrador being so under-populated).

[Smid]

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

Vancouver Centre is going to be interesting, given that it's on a peninsula. It's about a third over-populated compared to the BC average, so it will have to retract quite considerably and lose quite a bit around the southern end of the riding, I would suspect (unless they carve off the top and link it with North Vancouver or something strange like that). I think the incumbent does best in the South, so it will be interesting to see what happens there... will there be a new seat based on Southern Vancouver Centre/Western Vancouver East/Eastern Vancouver Quadra and Northwestern Vancouver Kingsway?

[Smid]

I was amazed to see how large St. John's East has gotten.

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

Vancouver Centre is going to be interesting, given that it's on a peninsula. It's about a third over-populated compared to the BC average, so it will have to retract quite considerably and lose quite a bit around the southern end of the riding, I would suspect (unless they carve off the top and link it with North Vancouver or something strange like that). I think the incumbent does best in the South, so it will be interesting to see what happens there... will there be a new seat based on Southern Vancouver Centre/Western Vancouver East/Eastern Vancouver Quadra and Northwestern Vancouver Kingsway?

ooh, so much fun we're going to have, eh?

I've been thinking about it for a little while, but now we have the maths. Between Centre, East, Quadra, Kingsway and South, there is about 90% of an additional electorate. The Tories won numerous bits of Quadra but not the bit near Centre. Depending on how things are divied up, there could very easily be three safe NDP seats, 1 lean Tory vs Liberal seat and 1 NDP vs Liberal tossup which would probably favour the NDP. If the Liberals held no seats in Alberta, nor BC, and throw in Manitoba for good measure (if the NDP wins back Winnipeg Centre North), and say Goodale retires in Saskatchewan... if the Liberals held no seats west of Ontario, what would that do to their national credibility and especially particularly in some of those Liberal vs NDP marginals in Ontario...

[Smid]

Would be nice to win another seat in Vancouver. I reckon that a smaller Vancouver Centre could go for us.

You do best in the Northern tip of the peninisula, I think, so any contraction towards that point could only benefit the NDP.

[Smid]

Smid, nice map. Shame that it can't take into account the political decisions to keep some intra-province areas overrepresented... Though I suppose you could do a Newfie-sans-Labrador average... but with Ontario you get the questions of will they continue to have 10 seats in the north? Or reduce to nine? Or keep at ten but fiddle with the southern boundary?

Thanks for the compliment!

I was thinking the same thing while doing it. I suspect Northern Quebec will also remain under in the same way as Northern Ontario. I contemplated a Newfoundland only for averages version, given Labrador is a distinct area, as you say, but figured to just keep it as is, since Thayer may change their minds for a Labrador - Humber riding. Excising Northern Ontario is a good idea, but it's hard to be objective. Perhaps we could do clusters of seats on existing boundaries or something, and only show the outline of those however many seats, and how the average of all the seats in the cluster compares to the provincial average. I'd like to hear your thoughts/suggestions and might play with some ideas in the morning.

[Smid]

Winnipeg?

[Smid]

Welcome to the Forum, Poirot!

[Smid]

There is also the possibility that Wai Young the Tory MP in Vancouver South might flee increasingly marginal Vancouver South and run in Vancouver Granville setting the stage for a CPC-NDP battle in Vancouver South as the Liberal vote there would likely collapse to single digits with no Ujjal Dosanjh running as the incumbent

I was thinking exactly this, had been since Earl posted his ideology map the other day, actually (before the boundaries came out, I wondered if perhaps there would be a seat basically stretching from southern V-Quadra, through southern V-Granville and through to western V-South, following the blue band there... I thought if such a seat were created, the new MP for V-South would possibly want to contest that).

[Smid]

Very interesting... Calgary Confederation would be weaker for the Tories, I would think, compared to the old Calgary Centre North, since it stretches into the Varsity part of town... looking at Krago's map of Calgary poll results in 2011, Rob Anders lost a few polls in that part of his riding (which has been transferred into Confederation), and the polls he won there were weaker than the his wins in other parts of the riding. Actually, The506's maps are also handy and useful to look at in conjunction with Krago's.

Calgary North East becomes Calgary McCall, which is the same name as used provincially. The part of the riding transferred to the new Calgary Forest Lawn was predominantly Tory, judging from The506's maps (I count four polls there that when Liberal, with the rest voting Tory - strongest in the Vista Heights part of the riding, where I see a 70% Tory poll, a 64% Tory poll and a 57% Tory poll). The parts remaining in Calgary McCall, up in the Northwestern corner, around Coventry Hills and Harvest Hills, there are some very strong Tory polls, but the remainder of the riding is quite close if won by the Tories, or else won by the Grits, including a 72% Liberal poll in Taradale. If the new Calgary McCall isn't a notionally Liberal seat, it certain is very close to being so. There's a large immigrant population in the area - I think predominantly Vietnamese and Indian - you'll probably get an idea of that from the Demographic Map based on old provincial boundaries, especially the low % speaking English at home and high % speaking an unofficial language at home.

Calgary Confederation would probably be notionally a couple of percent weaker for the Tories compared to the existing Calgary Centre North. The strongest Tory booths seem to be in the Northern end of the riding - from Highland Park and New Haven, north. Highland Park (including a 72% Tory poll) remains in Calgary Confederation, but the rest of those very good polls for the Tories are transferred into Calgary Nose Hill. The seat also gains some of the area around the university from Calgary West, and those polls voted NDP or weakly Tory last election.

Calgary Signal Hill is mostly Calgary West, but without Varsity and Tuscany (Varsity, as mentioned is off to Confederation, and Tuscany goes to the new Spy Hill, which is made up of Tuscany and all the new estates with mountain views in the old Nose Hill). It also picks up some of the best parts of the old Calgary Centre - I see two 74% Tory polls and a 75% Tory poll in the Glenbrook area.

Looks like Calgary Centre gains a single poll off Calgary East, which was 50% Tory. It loses some good parts to the new Calgary Signal Hill (old Calgary West), though, so probably loses a couple of percent. I wouldn't want to estimate the margin, but I think it would be fairly slim, given all the 55-65% polls lost, plus those three >70% polls, also.

The new Calgary Forest Lawn probably has a similar margin to the existing Calgary East... seems like the area was politically fairly homogenous in 2011 - both the parts from the old Calgary East, and also the polls gained from Calgary Northeast.

The remaining part of Calgary is all quite similar, also - quite strongly Tory, as you'd expect. Harper will probably run in Heritage, I'd guess. Given that the three ridings are mostly made up of C-SE and C-SW, and that those two ridings were both about 75% Tory and both reasonably homogenous, I'd suspect that those three ridings are all in that range also. I see some polls that are lower, and some that are higher, but we can mark all three as very safe Conservative.

I haven't really discussed the old Calgary Nose Hill, which is now mostly the new Calgary Nose Hill and new Calgary Spy Hill, but that's all Conservative, anyway.

[Smid]

Edmonton East becomes Edmonton Griesbach. It gains area from Edmonton-St Albert, including two polls that voted NDP in 2011. Much of that area provincially is Edmonton-Calder, and voted NDP. It loses a few polls to Edmonton Manning, and a small area to Edmonton Strathcona, which now crosses the river, I note.

[Smid]

Posted links to both your blogs on my Facebook, stellar work! Perhaps PEI is taking so long because they are worried about putting out a draft that purposes no changes?

[Smid]

Montreal has one new riding. Which one is Montreal's "new" riding?  Is George-Étienne-Cartier the "new" riding? Or is it Ville-Marie, parts of Jeanne-Le Ber, Laurier--Sainte-Marie, and Westmount--Ville Marie. But Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine has been so chopped up I don't know where it went. Isn't Wilder-Penfield the successor to Westmount? But is Lachine--LaSalle more from LaSalle--Émard? Is Verdun more from Jeanne-Le Ber?

I think a case could also be made for Maurice-Richard, just to the South of Bourassa, since the other seats that could be considered new are in areas where other seats have been abolished - so they're more of radically altered boundaries and changed names (of Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie, Notre Dame de Grace-Lachine, Jean Le Ber, LaSalle-Emard, Outremont, and Laurier-Sainte Marie, you have seven seats... those seven seats now roughly correspond to John-Peters-Humphrey, Lachine-Lasalle, Outremont, Verdun, Wilder-Penfield, Ville Marie and Plateau-Mile End - still seven seats, with a couple of bits shaved off, and then radically redrawn). It's difficult to say precisely which of the new seats replaces which of the old (except in some obvious cases, such as Outremont and Verdun, and Mont Royal -> JPH), but none-the-less, it's seven seats becoming seven seats.

[Smid]

The new Quebec provincial map for the coming election has one important difference from the federal maps: under Quebec law they use the number of voters rather than the population.

I've drawn the base map for Quebec elections, if you want to use it - it's in the gallery (under blank maps) and there's also one that I did of notional figures, based on a document put out by Elections Quebec - the link is in the thread on the Quebec election, I think. That map (and others, using the old boundaries) are in the International Elections section of the gallery.

[Smid]

The 2008 Québec provincial election results put on the new map (including byelections results up to January 2012) is at http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

I used the link you posted to convert it into a map:



Bigger version in the Gallery.

[Smid]

At first glance it looks like it has been almost perfectly designed to maximize the number of NDP seats in the province. Yippee!

Of course, the same could have been said of the old map - the rurban ridings were meant to be won by the NDP.

I find Saskatoon Centre-University (terrible name, choose a neighbourhood or something!) slightly messy to me where it crosses the river, taking in the DT but then encompassing southern areas west of the river, then northern areas east of the river? I might call gerrymander if i were a tory cause ya that one is taylor made for the NDP. Saskatoon West is probably a big NDP seat too... and looks odd aswell... anyone with more SASK knowledge know if these ridings make sense?

I think if you were going to cross the river anywhere, it would make sense to do so on the Northern outskirts, rather than have a riding that stretches from the North-East suburbs to the South-West suburbs, running through the centre of town. That would lead to more compact ridings.

[Smid]

PEI published its map.

I quote the very short report

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hopefully they'll adopt that in the final report... make creating new maps just slightly simpler.

[Smid]

Wilfred, I was wondering if that was possible. Would then free up the rest of the city to be two urban ridings. Thanks for your calculations!

[Smid]

Likewise it would be interesting to see the effect on the Green Party in numbers too since despite the fact beyond Elizabeth May's riding the Greens stand almost no chance of winning anymore ridings, but still if they were to ever make a breakthrough in any province, it would probably be BC, but the chances of that are worse than the Leafs winning the stanley cup.

Much the same as looking at the 2008 estimations in the area around Portneuf-Jacques Cartier (please forgive any incorrect spelling there).

[Smid]

And will Bennett flee St. Paul's and run in Mt Pleasant? Will Rae retire?

I was wondering that, myself - given Rae's age, that would perhaps be the most sensible solution, but you never know.

Also, who will run for the Liberals in Don Valley East? The defeated MP for DVE from prior to the 2011 election, or the defeated MP for DVW from prior to 2011, or someone else? I presume the current MP would contest Don Valley North.

[Smid]

Excellent work! Well done!

[Smid]

I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

In addition, the local MP was merely a candidate in the previous election. By the time of the next election, he will have had a good few years to build up a personal profile within the Riding. This should be worth at least a couple of percent in parts of the Riding remaining in the new Welland-Fort Erie, possibly more as the personal vote of the previous Member will dissipate and in some cases perhaps switch to him.

[Smid]

I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

In addition, the local MP was merely a candidate in the previous election. By the time of the next election, he will have had a good few years to build up a personal profile within the Riding. This should be worth at least a couple of percent in parts of the Riding remaining in the new Welland-Fort Erie, possibly more as the personal vote of the previous Member will dissipate and in some cases perhaps switch to him.

Not really, Malcolm Allen, the MP, was elected in 08 so in the 11 election he was the incumbent. Before that he was a Pelham councillor from 03-08. So he was not just a candidate but was of the calibre of Fife and the likes.

But what becomes really interesting on the Provincial side, is if elections ontario adopts the new ridings (since the provincial are basically the same as the federal minus Northern ON)... this would mean that Wayne Redekop the former mayor of For erie and candidate in Niagara Falls... could go up against Cindy Forster who is the MPP for Welland (former councillor and mayor of Welland).

Oh, sorry, my mistake. You're right, of course.