Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the precise distribution: (from Ian MacDonald)

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/seats%2Bbring%2Bfairness%2BCommons%2Brepresentation/5856927/story.html

BC: 6 seats, mostly Lower Mainland.

AB: 6 seats divided between Edmonton and Calgary.

ON: 15 seats, mostly 905.

QC: 3 seats, one on Montreal Island, one in Laval, the other on the South Shore.

Isn't there a projected map floating somewhere around the interwebs though? Could swear I saw one not that long ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Come on team, we've been through this before. The exact census numbers will be released in Feburary 2012, so of course we don't know the exact seat distribution till then.

Their precise locations? Of course not. But the provinces where seats will be added- that's included in the bill itself.

[RogueBeaver]

This helps Tories, potentially Grits.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/adding-seats-to-house-of-commons-a-political-windfall-for-tories/article2271940/

[RogueBeaver]

The proboem with Ibbitson's analysis is that it makes the assumption that the result of the 2015 election will be the same as the results of the 2011 election. On paper it might look like all those new 905 seats would go Tory...but the Tories won a lot of those seats narrowly and in the Ontario provincial election 905 went totally Liberal (plus the NDP breakthrough in Bramalea-Gore-Malton).

Ontario has a long tradition of voting for different parties at the 2 levels. But otherwise we'll agree to disagree, since this isn't a 2015 speculation thread.

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder what the new ridings here in Quebec will look like. One on the South Shore, one in Laval and the other on Montreal Island proper.

[RogueBeaver]

Montreal Island proper hasn't grown all that much, though the West Island (go figure) has.

[RogueBeaver]

If someone could take a stab at the Quebec ridings, 'twud be much appreciated.

[RogueBeaver]

If possible, could you mention whether redistricting produces a swing one way or another in the riding? A version of PVI if you will.  Ferex, will Lamoureux's Winnipeg North become slightly more red or orange?

[RogueBeaver]

Labrador smallest in population presumably. The smallest in area is Papineau, which is only a few blocks of low-income residential in northeastern Montreal.

[RogueBeaver]

That sounds like a good idea. If anyone has an idea about Montreal Island... please share. I can't see any riding that pops out.

[RogueBeaver]

Excellent. If Quebec could be next on your list, 'twud much appreciated.

[RogueBeaver]

Excellent. If Quebec could be next on your list, 'twud much appreciated.

Im not doing all of Quebec at once. Please be more specific. However, there is a long list of requests to get done first.

Montreal. In good time though, whenever you're ready.

On a somewhat unrelated note, has anyone heard from Teddy recently?

[RogueBeaver]

^ x1000.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't see Montreal proper getting that much of a makeover, if any. Certainly if my part of town gets caught up in redistribution I'll still be stuck with a lousy orange poteau.

[RogueBeaver]

I'll be interested to see the Ontario and Quebec proposals.

[RogueBeaver]

Ou?

[RogueBeaver]

My part of town (Wilder-Penfield) got its boundary adjusted... interesting. Mount Royal got pushed all the way into the West Island unless I badly misread the map.

[RogueBeaver]

It's an open secret here in Montreal that Cotler will retire, BTW.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotler and Dion to challenge the boundaries.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/07/19/grit-mps-dion-cotler-plan-to-challenge-%E2%80%98arbitrary%E2%80%99-riding-boundary-changes/31540

[RogueBeaver]

I have no idea.

[RogueBeaver]

Uhh, no, speaking as someone quite familiar with the area.

[RogueBeaver]

Haven't been following this for a while, but is Ontario the last holdout?

[RogueBeaver]

How many are left? Will the representation orders be proclaimed on time in September?

[RogueBeaver]

When will the process finally be over?