Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[lilTommy]

Population by riding:

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&T=501&PR=0&SR=1&S=3&O=D

Drool... thats what trhee ridings you ccan basically split in half to meet quota i think.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/geo/map-carte/pdf/thematic/2011-98320-001-001-003-01-eng.pdf

map of growth in CMAs,

[lilTommy]

Its worth noting that one of the fatest growing ridings in Canada is Trinity-Spadina - up 25% since 2006!! Seems like a no-brainer that a new riding will have to be created in downtown TO.

Absolutely, the City of TO is 2.6m... basically 25/26 ridings over the 22 today. I suspect a 4th riding will be/should be cut out of the 3 core ridings of Toronto Centre (130k), TS(144k) and St. Paul (116K) with possible pieces from other around

Scarborough Rouge River is the largest out that way at 135K; Don Valley West is 123K; Willowdale 140K... those are the largest ridings that will/should see changes.

[lilTommy]

I noticed how large Trinity-Spadina got as well. Toronto-Danforth barely increased, though. I was noticing as I was going through the census tracts for my demo maps, that a lot of them had lost population between 2001 and 2006.

Anyways, nice to see some large NDP ridings, hopefully they have babies; Smaller, NDP ridings!   But, we all know the Tories will benefit the most.

Im hoping Northern Ontario keeps their 10 ridings, but I'm not sure... I see Kenora took a real hit. I guess it would be ok to get rid of that riding, since its Tory, but I know that wont happen unless they do something weird in the northwest.

Most of the East end didn't see much growth, and a New riding DT could see polls move into Daveport which i was surprised to see showed a decline.
Most of the new ridings we all know are going to be in the 905 area, but The north is going to be interesting since they will most likely lose one. They could do some murging of Kenora with TB-RR and TB-SN so as to make two ridings something like a Thunder Bay-Kenora (which would be a competative NDP riding). Algoma also is the next lowest with about 74K, i suspect they would play with the borders around Nickel belt and Sudbury.

[lilTommy]

I wonder what the new ridings here in Quebec will look like. One on the South Shore, one in Laval and the other on Montreal Island proper.

Quebec is interesting, there are a number of Souther Shore, metro montreal ridigns that are over 120k (including Hull-Aylmer)
hmmm Montreal will be fun; Outremont is the smallest with 95k and Jeanne-Le Ber is the largest at 115k, looks like some ridings will see big changes in order to get 1 new riding on the island since most are about/around 100k

[lilTommy]

Lovely Maps!

Northern Ontario - the Prov. gov't has the north "locked" at 10 seats but i just don't see the tories doing that; if they managed to have the commission stacked even mildly i could see the seats drop to 9... then what i mentioned before could be possible (Two seats carved out of the three in NW ON, Kenora-Thunder Bay RR & SN) and Algoma expanded at the expense of Nickel Belt, Sudbury and Maybe TJB)

Vancouver - If the new riding took Kits, and south Fariview leaving northern Fairview along False creek, and the pennisula which has both the NDPs and tories (Yaletown, coal harbour) strongest polls, the riding should go NDP. Given that in May we had a relative unknown candidate who performed well. The New Granville or Cambie corridor riding would probably be Tory/Liberal since it goes through battleground areas esp on the prov side.

Toronto - Pickering-SE will be split so that scarborough has 5 or 6 full seats; i'm really surprised to see Danforth under quota; Beaches is slighly above so i could see some polls drift over from Beaches to Danfoth since the Don is a huge barrier abd would be an ugly move. Also since i feel a forth riding DT will be created... PHP and Davenport will pick up some polls probably from Trinity-Spadina; But i would split St. Pauls east to west, think a Tronto Centre minus Rosedale which would then  be merged with eastern St.Pauls. Named myabe Rosedla-St. Pauls.  Northern TS merged with St. Pauls western; maybe named Forrest Hill... I'd have to see if that worked out.

The liberals are almost dead east of Ontario... BC they have some blood but only in the Lower mainland. if by 2015 it becomes a more heated two way race... I'd expect them to lose most ridings west of ontario (Goodale might be retiring by then, fingers crossed on that one)

[lilTommy]

RE Northern Ontario: Not sure if the Tories will want to lose Kenora, as they hold it. The NDP seats in the north don't seem to be too much in jeopardy. BTW, provincially N.O. has 11 seats, not 10.

Ah christmas your right, sorry about that.

So the Globe and CBC have great maps too...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/census-2011-interactive-how-does-your-community-compare/article2326514/
They are showing which census tracts have negative growth

[lilTommy]

... odd the map is labelled wrong then, on the Globe site it says Census tract.
what is the difference BTW?

[lilTommy]

Great find! This is going to make making maps so much easier than using the clunky geosearch site.

YAY! its shake'n bake and i helped ... sorta LOL

[lilTommy]

Montreal Island proper hasn't grown all that much, though the West Island (go figure) has.

Well, there isn't much room for growth on the Island.
Perhaps more in West Island, I never went there.

that cant be necessarily be true, like DT there are ways esp if there is a condo boom or brownfield conversions to have growth is cities.The west island is like the inner suburbs here like north york or etobicoke(i have family in Dorval) which is the main reason the waterfront tract here is so dark... i know, my building is less then 5yrs old and thats old for around here

[lilTommy]

I would love to see Toronto, i've already mentioned a few changes that i think will happen (or changes i would make) since the city will get two ridings; one DT and one in the inner burbs somewhere...
I'd love to try but to be honest have no real idea how to go abouts...

[lilTommy]

I'm very excited about Toronto and Vancouver... How about SW ON (Hamilton and west of it)? Windsor-Essex-Chatham-Kent area also saw population decreases so there might be some movement there?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/story/2012/02/13/sby-gravelle-bill.html
Looks like the NDP is going to try and make sure N.ON keeps its 10 seats... which brings us to another point, are there other provinces who wish to have regions protected from losing seats? are there any regions that will (or should) lose seats?

[lilTommy]

The Quebec federal commission used 3 regional groupings. Montreal, North of St. Lawrence, South of St. Lawrence.

It would make sense to keep them, because it is sure than the St. Lawrence must not be crossed and than Montreal has to be left alone.

Vaudreuil-Soulanges is too big now to be one riding, so I reckon a new riding will be created that will cross over into Montreal like V-S did in the 1980s.

Another option is possible. They can go in the Salaberry Island (currently in Beauharnois-Salaberry) direction and split V-S, to do a Vaudreuil riding and a Salaberry-Soulanges one.

If I remember well, the bridge between Soulanges area and Salaberry Island was enlarged to a 4 lanes one a few years ago.

True, but that requires crossing the St. Lawrence.

At that place, it isn't a problem to cross it.

So there is more of a natural connection there then say having the riding take in portions of West Island Montreal? Having the new riding take some portions would solve some of the issues around trying to get another full riding on the island. With this option we can play with the border which would be easier to make ridings closer to quota. no?

[lilTommy]

I don't know for natural connections, but, the riding isn't so much overpopulated. Splitting it and going into Montreal would have an huge domino effect.

Go big or go home right kidding... joking aside, i don't think the commission tends to favour big drastic changes do they? I think the UK commission is of that mentality

to bring up another point; I think Sask will again have the debate about creating urban and rural ridings vs the current mixed ridings; thats something the NDP have recently been pushing... for obvious reasons.

[lilTommy]

Hatman, Great work! you should submit this to the commission!

Don Valley South looks pretty cohesive; Rosedale and Leaside are very socoi-economically similar and there are no big natural divides (i'm glad teh Don river was kept as a boundary) the only odd-man-out is Thorncliffe and Flemingdon park... but they were already in Don Valley West and Don Valley Centre would be even worse.

Trinity-Spadina & Toronto Centre (i prefer it to be renamed something like Toronto-Old York) both logically shrink south, making TC a NDP seat based on the polls from 2011. TC takes in huge areas of Uni-Bloor west and Yorkville (looks like all the way to Spadina?) which is much more Liberal(torkville not Uni) but the i still give the edge here to the NDP. plus this will be a high growth with all the development in the east bayfront. TS looks to start south of bloor now, whats the northern borders? Looks like Harbord? I’m thinking a new name as well, something like Trinity-Fort York

St.Pauls becomes interesting; it losses the davisville area east of Yonge BUT gains the more NDP friendly areas of the Annex; and loses some polls to Davenport too (which was under quota)The NDP performed best in the polls in the south around davenport rd. Carolyn Bennett will probably run here still making it hard for an NDP pick-up without a strong candidate (think Mihevic), BUT if Rae dosen't run in DVS... it would be tempting for her to bolt to a safer riding

Scarborough is still a battle ground; with Scarborough Bluffs-Woburn looking to be now a competitive three horse riding vs Guildwood which was more a Lib/Tory battle. SRR actually becomes a safer NDP riding with polls west of McCowan moving to Agincourt (they were tory heavy last time). SSW is still a fight since it adds tory/liberal and NDP polls from SC

[lilTommy]

I find this quite awkward in both of the areas that have been changed the most (west-central downtown and the Don Valley ridings). The northern half of the current Trinity-Spadina is much more oriented towards the inner city than to northern and eastern St. Paul; going from College and Ossington up to Forest Hill and Yonge and Eglinton just feels very unnatural.

With Don Valley Central and South, meanwhile, you now have two ridings that combine a very affluent non-immigrant west side with inner suburban South Asian areas in the east. The existing Don Valley West has this of course, but at least it has a certain logic from using the river valley itself as the boundary.

Since Trinity-Spadina is the most overpopulated riding and is the merger of two historic ridings, I would think a natural starting point might be to recreate Spadina and Trinity, with Spadina including the rapidly growing condo areas on the fringe of the downtown core and Trinity combining the southern half of Davenport with roughly the western third of Trinity-Spadina, which together form a natural constituency of very urban but still low-rise row housing.

How are you doing these, by the way?

I agree with Hatman, I’d love to see this mapped.
But Pumpkin does bring up an interesting point; in the past TO’s central riding have always had a north south elongation, and not very wide (see 1933-1947) where they followed major roads by looks of the maps on wiki. If we went NS that would mean Davenport would probably disappear and I agree many in the area might fight this, but it’s an interesting idea that has been done before. St. Pauls could be re-oriented to focus along St. Clair… but you would have the Portuguese mixed between two ridings now.
The Don River under Hatmans map is still the major border of DVS which makes sense but now includes Rosedale which is a much better social-economic, ethnic fit than it was in TOCentre.  It looks like the area east of the river in DVC is Victoria Park Village, not too familiar but looks to be an area similar to Flemingdon park except with a high concentration of South Americans (wiki).  It would be almost impossible to have a riding that includes only these ethinic, more mixed income areas… it would look ridiculous but might be fun to try and map

[lilTommy]

any idea when the other maritime provinces will release their proposals? i'm looking to see NS and NB... from a purely how-can-the-ndp-benefit side of things

[lilTommy]

I have to agree... there are A LOT of little appendages just sticking out everywhere... is there historical/geographic/linguistic reasons for this? population reasons...
And Tobique - Saint John River Valley is indeed an odd name; but so was Long Range Mountains (NL)... are we seeing a trend here with the naming conventions?

[lilTommy]

I'm not that surprised with BC, In Vancouver i think thats pretty much what i was hoping to see was a new "Granville" Type riding that makes VC more NDP winable...

I've notice the Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge cuts Port Coquitlam in an odd way, there just a huge chunk thrown into it. I don't like it, anyone from BC have a comment on that? Would it not have been better to have a Coquitlam-Port Conquitlam riding, then have Port Moody and noth east Coquitlam added into the PMMR? Thoughts?

I think Esquimalt-Colwood will be more competative but Garrison will have incumbency and his past Esq. centred political carrer to his advantage; in this case the candidate will help the NDP more then the NDP will help the candidate, yes?

Also, the NDP lost a riding in Southern BC Interior (hate that name anyway)... looks like its now the southern portions of Chilliwack FC; Central Ok, Southern Ok. Any guess where Atamanenko would run? He lives in Castlegar which is in Southern Ok... and frankly i think thats the smart choice. The other two don't strike me as even NDP targets

[lilTommy]

Analysis of Vancouver up!

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/bc-federal-riding-boundary-proposal.html

Great review, So for Hedy Fry its a damned if you do, damned if you don't eh. Good question is will she run again? She's been around since 93 and now would be the time to bow out or risk being defeated. Running in the new VC would be a risk cause its more favourable to the NDP, especially if they run a star or even strong candidate... and the right-of-centre vote might shift to the tories and she gets squeezed out. VG is also not a good fit, her best polls are now in the riding but so are the very affluent areas of VQ. It might just be a good time for her to call it quits.

I agree with your reason that VC should be smaller and VQ should be bigger... thats easily accomplished by moving say polls from Kits Point from VC to VQ... not sure on the numbers though

[lilTommy]

There is also the possibility that Wai Young the Tory MP in Vancouver South might flee increasingly marginal Vancouver South and run in Vancouver Granville setting the stage for a CPC-NDP battle in Vancouver South as the Liberal vote there would likely collapse to single digits with no Ujjal Dosanjh running as the incumbent

From my outside perspective, VS would be the kind of riding the NDP needs to win to be the gov't; and the tories need to hold to stay gov't; its not your typical NDP riding... middle and upper class, very ethnically diverse and provincially at least V-Fraserview is marginal and tends to go with the party that is gov't. If Wai Young Jumps to VG, and their is no Ujjal running... the NDP would need a strong local candidate to win but might have the edge me thinks? Espcially since by that time the NDP will have probably won V-Fraserview and be the BC Gov (assuming a Dix win)

As for Foucaulf's Horizontal split idea, interesting. I haven't heard this option before. You go from 1 Liberal and 1 Tory favourable ridings to 2 Lib-Con battle ridings.

[lilTommy]

OK Alberta,
- Red deer, could ahve been split due to growth in the central part of Alberta? could have been a forward-thinking move with the slpit perhaps?
- Lethbridge; this re-draw benefits the NDP in a huge way, the very strong tory polls in the south, all the way to the US are gone, now part of an odd shapped Foothills and Medicine Hat. Its now focused on metro Lethbridge by the looks of it. Still an uphill battle but this would be (should be) in the top 5 NDP targets.
- Edmonton; I like that they went with more urban focused ridings, with only one E-Wetaskiwin being almost all rural with only a sliver of suburban edmonton as a left over. (i count St. Albert-Edmonton as Ed, because the two cities just have grown into each other). E-Greisbach does look like it could be more favourable to the NDP with the addition of Calder and favourable prov. NDP areas. My thoughts are Ray Martin might be tapped out (age and his what 3 recent election losses) the NDP would need a stellar candidate here to win, and probably need the incumbent not to run.
E-Starthcona i think just got stronger for the NDP! its only major change was oddly adding Riverdale from E-East N of the River into it, which voted NDP... I find that odd, and would add it back to E-Greisbach just to keep the river as a natural boundary which i think works in most cases.
E-C basically gets a name change and losses only Meadowlark Park... and the lone NDP poll froim that area.

[lilTommy]

As for Foucaulf's Horizontal split idea in vancouver, interesting. I haven't heard this option before. You go from 1 Liberal and 1 Tory favourable ridings to 2 Lib-Con battle ridings.

Actually if they did that "horizontal split" you would have a riding made up of the southern parts of vancouver-Quadra and vancouver Granville that would be a Tory/Liberal tossup which would be an almost purely upper class old money riding. The northern half would not be such a foregone conclusion. I think that if you create a riding that including Fairview and Kitsilano and over to UBC you get a seat where with the right candidate the NDP could be very competitive. This would be a federal seat largely made up of the provincial seats of Point-Grey and Fairview...both have gone NDP in the past and both are almost certain to go NDP next May...Christy Clark barely won a byelection in Point Grey last year when she was at the height of her honeymoon bounce!

The only reason i'm not as confident as you are about the NDP being competative in this type of drawn riding, is because of the inclusion of Shaunessey and Dunbar as Foucaulf suggests, and are those not terriblely unfriendly NDP areas? But i see your point, it becomes more like a Van-South in this current proposal

[lilTommy]

I guess it boils down to whether the NDP has a better chance at winning Granville as currently configured as opposed to winning a riding composed of the northern halves of Granville and Quadra

I think, arguably, in that case the NDP has a much better shot at a Nothern split riding vs the Granville one
... and i'm sure thats at the top of their mind for the boundary commission

[lilTommy]

It still looks to be in the new riding to me? if your talking about the 6 polls, they were in MacLoud (sp) riding... from the description, Lethbridge and Leth.County are in the new riding the only removal was everything south of that?

http://daveberta.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Alberta-Federal-Electoral-Boundaries-2004-and-2015-proposed.jpg

via Daveberta...

[lilTommy]

Oh yes, please do share with the whole class!

Hmm i wonder, Windsor's population shrank so (this is where that pop. data could be helpful) do they even qualify for two ridings? Currently Windsor has 1 fully/only the city (Windsor West) and the other the rest of the city plus the town of Tecumseh... but if they are below the quota?