What's going on?

[Simfan34]

We don't seem to be sure what is going on. What do you think is going on right now in the primaries?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

-Gingrich is taking a lot of heat in the states that matter and can't properly respond due to his lack of fundraising.
-Huntsman is slowly but surely gaining support and becoming a viable option for more wary Romney supporters.
-Santorum is slowly but surely gaining support and is becoming visible.
-Paul has managed to rehabilitate his image among more mainstream conservatives through his campaign's impressive media prowess leading to him gaining some soft support. If he can continue this slow rise, he has a big chance of winning Iowa, although the irony is that if he ever wins Iowa, his favorability numbers will probably be knocked back down in New Hampshire in short order.

[Meeker]

Around this time in '08 we stopped having a good idea of what was going on as well. It's part of the fun.

[Yelnoc]

Gingrich is losing his front runner status.  Romney is still floundering around.  Paul is getting a big boost, and the other four candidates seem to be floating upward also.

[Politico]

Four words: Gingrich is going down.

His doodles might as well have been this because they're about as crazy:

[RogueBeaver]

Gingrich is losing his front runner status.  Romney is still floundering around.  Paul is getting a big boost, and the other four candidates seem to be floating upward also.

I think this is confirmation that like all FOTMs, Gingrich is taking a "slow down escalator" (per the National Journal). The dramatic drop on Intrade probably means something's happening tonight which we don't know about yet.

[TheGlobalizer]

Down: Gingrich
Up: Paul, Huntsman, Santorum (in IA)
Wobbly: Romney
Hanging on by fingertips: Bachmann, Perry (both in IA only)

As of now, I'm projecting:

Out after IA: Bachmann, Perry
Out after NH: Santorum
Out after SC/FL: Gingrich, one of Romney+Huntsman
Leaving Romney/Huntsman vs. Paul

If it's Romney, Paul wins.  If it's Huntsman, Huntsman probably wins.

Feel free to disagree.  All of this is barring Paul going off the reservation, which is very possible.

[Lief 🗽]

Gingrich is coming down a bit, but aside from an outlier poll from a joke pollster (Rasmussen), there's no evidence that he's crashing or that Romney is replacing him as the frontrunner. Paul is definitely rising in Iowa at least, and Huntsman seems to at least be consolidating his support in the double digits in New Hampshire. There's some evidence that PBS are gaining support in Iowa but it's too early to tell.

[cavalcade]

Nationally, Gingrich is slightly falling.  That's all for now.

In Iowa, Gingrich is falling, Romney is flat, and everyone else is rising.

In New Hampshire, Gingrich is falling, Paul and Huntsman are rising, and everyone else is flat.

[King]

It's simple: Ron Paul won the last debate. Everybody said he did well and toned down the whine; just nobody figured Paul doing well could mean anything.  Top that with the attack ads on Gingrich and he's as strong as ever.

[Bull Moose Base]

Black Walnewt

[GOP732]

Its literally so fascinating to me that we are seriously discussing the prospects of Huntsman, Paul & Newt. You can't make this stuff up....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Around this time in '08 we stopped having a good idea of what was going on as well. It's part of the fun.

This time in '04, it was a 2 man race in Iowa between Dean and Gephardt.

[GLPman]

We should make a new one of these polls one week out from Iowa, but it seems evident at this point that, at the very least, Gingrich is falling and Paul is rising. We'll see if that trend continues this week given the debate performances tonight.