Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map

[minionofmidas]

Ri passed a map. Last I checked, it was on the governor's desk, but that was some days ago. Ct has a court drawn map. TX really is more of a compromise offer. If Republicans went back and actually passed that map in the legislature and withdrew their old one, then it would probably stand up in court, but as an actual compromise it appears to not fly.

That leaves NH, NY, MN, KS and TX on the table, with TX the only one of those to even have a likely map. (KS has two, very different ones. Despite Republican control.)

[minionofmidas]

Actually, seems like the Wyandotte-to-first-district, idea, is dead. Though second district Republicans are still balking at what losing Manhattan to the 1st and some R suburbs to the 3rd and gaining Lawrence is doing to their district, and are coming up with all sorts of alternatives, like a Wichita-to-southeast-corner fourth.

This is the main proposed map: http://redistricting.ks.gov/_Plans/Proposed_Plans/m5_sunflower9c/m5_sunflower9c.html

[minionofmidas]

And further research reveals that Chafee has signed it. And also that CT's map, drawn by a special master some weeks ago, was officially adopted by the State Supreme Court today.

[minionofmidas]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

[minionofmidas]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.

[minionofmidas]

Minnesota!

What is the hangup in NH?

New Hampshire

Republican leaders in the House are standing together in an attempt to quash dissension in their party regarding the new map. The House delegation from Manchester said they oppose the plan as they believe it could cost the city two representatives. To that end, they agreed to sustain a veto by Gov. John Lynch (D) that they believe will occur. In response, a five-page letter blasting critics of the plan and signed by over 40 Republican House members was sent out to all members of the chamber. The House previously passed the bill by a vote of 205-68, but it must now pass the Senate, who is not expected to vote on it until next month.

On the congressional side, U.S. Reps. Frank Guinta (R) and Charlie Bass (R) must have their districts balanced--their two districts are about 200-300 individuals apart. That has reportedly led to a long internal party fight behind-the-scenes. Republican leaders and Guinta are said to want minimal changes, while Bass is seeking to add a number of Republican towns to his district, including Merrimack, Hampstead and Plaistow.

[minionofmidas]

The new Orlando seat and the seat West ran from should be lean D.

Just noticed MO-2. Should be lean R.

[minionofmidas]

Obama cracked 60 there.