Romney winning Iowa?

[Jacobtm]

Nate Silver has a new page dedicated solely to predicting the first 4 Republican nominating contests, updating them as new polls come in, doing his math wiz thing:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/iowa

He currently thinks these are the odds that a candidate will win Iowa:

Gingrich: 38
Paul: 27
Romney: 26

Intrade has Romney leading the pack, giving Iowa the following odds:

Romney: 31
Gingrich: 29
Paul: 29

Both of these numbers really seem too good for Romney. Does anyone think he really has a 25-30% chance of winning Iowa?

[California8429]

I do think he has about a 15-30% chance of winning, depending on how he ends up by the end of December. He's pouring money and saying he's in it to win it, which will screw him most likely. If he wins Iowa, it will be over fast. Gingrich could still win South Carolina, but if he doesn't win Florida right after the nomination, a race won't really last past Super Tuesday. He still can win, but now he's making it that he has to win, which is dangerous.

[Devils30]

I think Gingrich needs Iowa and if he gets it it will be tough for him to be stopped. Most likely he then wins SC and probably has notable momentum heading into FL.

[cavalcade]

It looks like Nate, and almost certainly Intrade as well, is putting a lot of weight on Scotty.

I think Romney has a very good chance of winning Iowa if Gingrich continues to collapse, and there is a good chance that Gingrich continues to collapse.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Its entirely possible, and if it happens he basically is guaranteed the nomination.

But it isn't THAT likely. Iowa has a large enough contingent of voters who detest Romney that they could simply flake off to whoever isn't Romney and has the best chance of beating him (that'd currently be Paul). Furthermore, while he's been improving his appearance in the short term compared to Gingrich, he hasn't since he was stronger a month ago.

[Likely Voter]

It is certainly possible to win. The Nate Silver analysis is good but it is entirely driven by polls. But if you look at the top 3 candidates, Paul and Romney are better organized and both are pounding Gingrich in IA with millions spent on negative ads, whereas Gingrich is spending just a 1/4 mil on positive ads. Gingrich has survived to date on his debate performances. Last nights wasn't that great and there are no more debates until IA.


So for the next two weeks it constant paid negative ads against Gingrich, combined with Bachmann, Perry and Santorum barnstorming the state getting free media. Perry also has big money behind paid positive ads. This all combined can easily erode Gingrich's lead, which would result in a Paul or Romney win. Although the eventual winner may only win with 24% or so, which would be the lowest % winner ever.