2012 Indian presidential election

[Хahar 🤔]

This is big news here, so I figure I probably ought to mention it here. Two candidates have been nominated for election to the office of President: Pranab Mukherjee and PA Sangma. Pranab Mukherjee is a prominent member of the Congress from West Bengal; until his resignation to run for President, he served as Finance Minister in the present government. Sangma comes from a tribal district in Meghalaya; he has been Speaker of Lok Sabha and Chief Minister of Meghalaya. Sangma was a member of the NCP (part of the Congress-led UPA) until he resigned from the party when it decided to back the official UPA candidate, Pranab. Pranab will win; he has the support of the Congress and all of its allies save the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee (which remains neutral), along with two BJP allies (JD(U) and Shiv Sena) and various other parties, such as the BSP and CPI(M). Together, his backers form a majority in the electoral college that will elect the President.

The NDA (BJP and allies) took a very long time finding a candidate for this election; the coalition seems to be in disarray. It's just as unlikely now as it was in 2009 that the BJP will be able to regain power in 2014.

[pugbug]

Ooo, very interesting. Do you have any polls or articles or anything to back that up? I wanna know more but for some reason I'm having a hard time finding any details.

[jaichind]

Pranab Mukherjee will win by a mile.  He has the support of UPA minus perhaps TC.  Left front, BSP and SP are for Pranab Mukherjee.  SS and JD(U) seem to be for Pranab Mukherjee  as well.  If this holds it is not contest.  He should win something like 65/35

[RogueBeaver]

Shouldn't the PMO transition be starting sometime after the presidential?

[minionofmidas]

Who gets to vote in these elections anyways? They're not direct elections, but there seems to be rather a large number of electors.

[Хahar 🤔]

Ooo, very interesting. Do you have any polls or articles or anything to back that up? I wanna know more but for some reason I'm having a hard time finding any details.

I've been getting this information from Indian TV, so unfortunately I can't help there. There are no polls since this is an electoral college, but the figure jaichind quoted is the common estimate.

Shouldn't the PMO transition be starting sometime after the presidential?

The best bet right now is 2014, after the election; Congress ministers right now are begging in public that Rahul join the government.

Who gets to vote in these elections anyways? They're not direct elections, but there seems to be rather a large number of electors.

MPs and MLAs. It's a lot like Germany, except that each voter's vote is weighted according to how many people he represents.

[jaichind]

Who gets to vote in these elections anyways? They're not direct elections, but there seems to be rather a large number of electors.

The system is quite complex. 

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(India)

Every MP (both lower and upper house) and MLA (those represensatives serving in state assemblies) votes.  Each voter has a different weight to their vote. 

The weight of each voter is normalized so that the total vote of all MPs for a certain state is equal to the total vote for all MLAs for a certain state.  So if a state has 40 MPs in the lower house, 15 MPs in the upper house, and 220 MLAs in its regional assembly, each MPs vote is 4 times the value of each MLA.   

Across different states, the value of votes is such so that the sum of all voters (MPs and MLAs) of any state is proportional to the population of said state in 1971.  It is for 1971 data because that is when India had its last reapprortionment.  And the reason why they have not done so is to encourage Indian states to support population control.  Or else each state will view growing is population as the way to get more political power for itself.  For example, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are underrepresented in Indian politics significantly because of this. 

[minionofmidas]

It is for 1971 data because that is when India had its last reapprortionment.  And the reason why they have not done so is to encourage Indian states to support population control.  Or else each state will view growing is population as the way to get more political power for itself.  For example, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are underrepresented in Indian politics significantly because of this. 

I know that.

I vainly searched for an article on Indian presidential elections per se (as opposed to individual ones) on wikipedia... didn't think of that article title.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like this Pranab guy won ...