Greece 2012

[Beet]

The official website has the first seat estimate

ND: 114
SYRIZA: 47
PASOK: 44
ANEL: 31
KKE: 25
Nazis: 21
DIMAR: 18

If that's true, ND + PASOK = 158. Solid majority, no?

[Landslide Lyndon]

There will be no ND-PASOK coalition government. The projections show that they will both have around 146 seats.
We are probably going to new elections in 40-50 days. 

[Beet]

Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?

[minionofmidas]

That depends on Greens, DISY and LAOS staying out. As to solid... who knows. Have you seen the numbers of defections during the last parliament? Nothing is solid, in a way. Then again, can you expect similar things again, even assuming there will be "events"? Who knows? Certainly not we.

[minionofmidas]

Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?

If no one can form a government quickly, there are new elections. Greece has the rules on that set down fairly tightly. There's a discussion of it; in the "super predictions" thread IIRC.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

They wouldn't. ND and PASOK are both very much closer to each other than anyone else due to their positions regarding the Eurozone, and what matters will be whether those two get a combined majority over the small anti-Eurozone parties (in that sense, the KKE and LAOS are closer to each other than to their respective "wingmates").

[Meeker]

ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

[minionofmidas]

It's not really getting closer anymore either.

[Dan the Roman]

It's not really getting closer anymore either.

Nothing coming in from Athens. Whats out will be Syriza heavy. Not enough for the lead but a brief look at whats out points to about a 2% swing.

[Dereich]

It's not really getting closer anymore either.

I may be reading this wrong but I think only 26% of the vote is in. Hopefully it'll get closer. I may be on the right and in favor of the European consensus but I want the smile wiped off of Samaras's face.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

Because PASOK was utterly destroyed

43.9% and 129 seats to
14.4% and 44 seats

The smaller parties, especially the anti-bailout left (Syriza, KKE) and right (Independent Greeks, LAOS, the Nazis), took a way bigger chunk of the vote.

From what I can tell, the pro-bailout parties aren't going to be able to form a government, which probably is getting the Euro bankers into a panic.

[minionofmidas]

It's not really getting closer anymore either.

Nothing coming in from Athens. Whats out will be Syriza heavy. Not enough for the lead but a brief look at whats out points to about a 2% swing.

Yeah, may just have been a couple of non-Syriza-heavy updates, Crete is above average reporting fwiw.

[Meeker]

ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

Because PASOK was utterly destroyed

43.9% and 129 seats to
14.4% and 44 seats

The smaller parties, especially the anti-bailout left (Syriza, KKE) and right (Independent Greeks, LAOS, the Nazis), took a way bigger chunk of the vote.

From what I can tell, the pro-bailout parties aren't going to be able to form a government, which probably is getting the Euro bankers into a panic.

I'm aware of why it happened; that doesn't make the system any less ridiculous.

[minionofmidas]

Kyklades have just flipped.

[Bacon King]

With 31.52% reporting:

ND:         112   20,34 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,73 %
PASOK:    43    14,14 %
ANEL:       32   10,31 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,80 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,79 %
DISY:                2,57 %

[minionofmidas]

Dimiourga Xana 1.91
Drasi 1.61
Antarsya 1.16
Koinoniki Symfonia 0.91
etc pp ct

[Dan the Roman]

With 31.52% reporting:

ND:         112   20,34 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,73 %
PASOK:    43    14,14 %
ANEL:       32   10,31 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,80 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,79 %
DISY:                2,57 %

And looking at whats out, and the trend for the ND lead to shrink as more comes in, it will probably close a bit more.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

What are the chances we see ND go below 20%?

[minionofmidas]

Fairly good I suppose. But possibly not all that much lower.

[Bacon King]

33.47% reporting now; what's coming in is pushing ND and PASOK down, keeping DISY away from the threshold, and mostly boosting SYRIZA (but also helping Greens and XA a bit).

ND:         112   20,26 %
SYRIZA:    48   15,81 %
PASOK:    43    14,06 %
ANEL:       32   10,32 %
KKE:         26    8,42 %
XA:           21    6,83 %
DIMAR:     18    6,00 %
LAOS:               2,88 %
Greens:            2,81 %
DISY:                2,53 %

[minionofmidas]

DISY won't make it, I am ready to declare. Far too early to tell for Greens and LAOS (my money is on aye for the latter, really can't tell for the former).

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... ND actually creeping back up as of the last updates...

[Bacon King]

36.90% reporting. Looks like new results are from conservative areas; ND/ANEL big winners at the expense of KKE/SYRIZA/DISY. LAOS getting closer to threshold.

ND:         112   20.36 %
SYRIZA:    48   15.79 %
PASOK:    43    14.08 %
ANEL:       32   10.35 %
KKE:         26    8.34 %
XA:           21    6.83 %
DIMAR:     18    5.98 %
LAOS:               2.89 %
Greens:            2.80 %
DISY:                2.49 %

[Bacon King]

39.39% reporting (8117/20605 precincts)

Leftists and nationalists gain vote share at the expense of PASOK and ND. SYRIZA gains a seat from the Commies.

ND:         112   20.28%
SYRIZA:    49   15.86%
PASOK:    43    13.98%
ANEL:       32   10.39%
KKE:         25    8.31%
XA:           21    6.85%
DIMAR:     18    5.99%
LAOS:               2.90%
Greens:            2.81%
DISY:                2.49%

[Bacon King]

Sorry, but how can they just call new elections? Some sort of runoff system?

If no one can form a government quickly, there are new elections. Greece has the rules on that set down fairly tightly. There's a discussion of it; in the "super predictions" thread IIRC.

It was earlier in this thread, actually. Here's a repost, given the, er, likelihood that these results end up being an unworkable mess for everyone involved:

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

• As soon as the new Parliament takes office, the President gives the leader of the largest party an exploratory mandate, and this leader has three days to form a Government that can hold the confidence of Parliament.
• If the first party can't form a government in three days, the President gives the leader of the second largest party an exploratory mandate, again with three days.
• If that party can't form a government in time either, then the President gives the third largest party's leader an exploratory mandate and another three three days.

(note: in the event of a tie in seat total, the party with more votes in the last election takes precedence. If there's a tie for third place [or a three-way tie for second place, I suppose] the President has the option of giving a fourth exploratory mandate to the tied party. In no circumstance can he give more than four.)

• If all of the exploratory mandates fail, the President is required to convene and chair a meeting of all Parliamentary party leaders (even inviting, if he desires, the leaders of parties too small to form official Parliamentary groups). At this meeting, one last chance exists for the various party leaders to negotiate and attempt to form a coalition.
• If that fails too, the President must "make every endeavor" to have an all-party unity government formed in order to immediately administer new elections.
• If the President can't even get the parties to cooperate for that, he has to pick one of the Chief Justices of Greece's three Supreme Courts to form a Cabinet to call for new elections. The President then dissolves Parliament.

Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).