Greece 2012

[Bacon King]

66.97% reporting (13799/20605 precincts)

More gains for SYRIZA; ND held mostly steady this update. Greens only 110 votes from overtaking LAOS now.

ND:	111	19.79%
SYRIZA:	50	16.27%
PASOK:	42	13.63%
ANEL:	32	10.49%
KKE:	26	8.36%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
LAOS:		2.86%
Greens:		2.86%
DISY:		2.53%

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

[Lief 🗽]

"Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate)

Joke candidate?

Indeed.

Why is austerity bad, and what is the alternative?

People hate it because it's caused massive cuts in pensions, minimum wage, and universal tax hikes while the economy is in the hole and unemployment is astronomical. No alternative though that doesn't involve leaving the Eurozone, and even then there'd still be horrible economic repercussions. (or, that's my understanding anyway, don't know too much about the details).

So, PASOK and ND are the best?

PASOK and ND especially are the reason Greece is in the mess it's in (that and the Euro). Pretty much all of these parties are bad.

[Meeker]

Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?

[Dan the Roman]

Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?

Pasok crashes enough for SYRIZA to come first?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?

Your guess is as good as mine. Let's hope that people have vented off enough and when they see that SYRIZA and the rest of the joke parties have absolutely no intention to govern, they will vote more wisely.

[SPQR]

Why are KKE and Syriza so against each other?
Left vs hard left...both against austerity...

[Leftbehind]

Why are Trotskyists and Stalinists so against each other, they're both for communism!

[Meeker]

Why are KKE and Syriza so against each other?
Left vs hard left...both against austerity...

Historical tensions... two decades ago they were in an alliance and then had a falling out

[Bacon King]

70.48% reporting (14522/20605 precincts)

ND:	111	19.77%
SYRIZA:	50	16.28%
PASOK:	42	13.59%
ANEL:	32	10.49%
KKE:	26	8.36%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
LAOS:		2.86%
Greens:		2.86%
DISY:		2.55%

[SPQR]

Why are KKE and Syriza so against each other?
Left vs hard left...both against austerity...

Historical tensions... two decades ago they were in an alliance and then had a falling out

LOL
Talk about short-sightedness.

[Beet]

If there are new elections in June, the same candidates will be running, no?

Also, who are the leaders of the parties besides ND and PASOK, and what are their personalities?

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, the KKE is kind of a joke party relic of the Cold War. Go read what their leaders and platform actually say. I doubt they'd ever join any government.

[The Mikado]

...I don't see why the coalition fails.  ND-PASOK, despite their historic animosity towards each other, have a vested interest in making the grand coalition (not so grand anymore, but take the term) work, because if they call people back to the polls, they'll just keep going down.  An ND-PASOK coalition has 153/300 seats, enough, barely, to trudge along passing unpopular austerity packages through etc.  If they call another election, PASOK will likely sink to the point that SYRIZA might become the largest party and form an anti-austerity government.

[Bacon King]

Parties in first by electoral district, sorted by percent reporting so far
95%-100% reporting: 10 total; 9 ND, 1 KKE
90%-95% reporting: 2 total; 1 ND, 1 SYRIZA
85%-90% reporting: 5 total; 5 ND
80%-85% reporting: 4 total; 3 ND, 1 SYRIZA
75%-80% reporting: 7 total; 4 ND, 2 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
70%-75% reporting: 8 total; 5 ND, 3 SYRIZA
65%-70% reporting: 6 total; 4 ND, 1 PASOK, 1 SYRIZA
60%-65% reporting: 8 total; 4 ND, 3 SYRIZA, 1 PASOK
55%-60% reporting: 2 total; 1 ND, 1 SYRIZA
50%-55% reporting: 3 total; 3 SYRIZA

Also, significantly, the (by far) largest district in the country, with 42 seats, is giving Syriza 22% with only 62% reporting.

[Meeker]

...I don't see why the coalition fails.  ND-PASOK, despite their historic animosity towards each other, have a vested interest in making the grand coalition (not so grand anymore, but take the term) work, because if they call people back to the polls, they'll just keep going down.  An ND-PASOK coalition has 153/300 seats, enough, barely, to trudge along passing unpopular austerity packages through etc.  If they call another election, PASOK will likely sink to the point that SYRIZA might become the largest party and form an anti-austerity government.

153 (if they even end up with that by the end of the night) is far too unstable given the amount of defections that ND and PASOK have seen recently.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If there are new elections in June, the same candidates will be running, no?

Also, who are the leaders of the parties besides ND and PASOK, and what are their personalities?

Presumably yes but this time the representatives will be elected through a list system, not by the constituents marking the name of their prefered candidate.

Tsipras (SYRIZA) is an arrogant brat. Imagine Tom Cruise in Top Gun without the redeeming qualities.

Papariga (KKE) is your typical stalinist drone, even though when she speaks candidly she has shown to be a very shrewd politician with a deeply analytical mind.
 
Kamenos (ANEL) is a conservative populist who has always been a media darling because of his overblown rhetoric and flamboyant personality.

Kouvelis (DIMAR) is a low key, experienced statesman.

Mihaloliakos is a far right wing nutjob that would feel right at home at Mississippi back in the segregation days.

[Lief 🗽]

Don't know if anyone's posted this, but the interactive map on the Guardian of election results is great: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map

[Bacon King]

72.81% reporting (15002/20605 precincts)

Greens have overtaken LAOS! Good shot that they'll make it into Parliament, based on what's out. Also, ND/PASOK fall some more while SYRIZA gains. Only 3.4% gap between top two now.

ND:	111	19.71%
SYRIZA:	50	16.33%
PASOK:	42	13.55%
ANEL:	32	10.47%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
Greens:		2.86%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.56%

[Landslide Lyndon]

72.81% reporting (15002/20605 precincts)

Greens have overtaken LAOS! Good shot that they'll make it into Parliament, based on what's out. Also, ND/PASOK fall some more while SYRIZA gains. Only 3.4% gap between top two now.

ND:	111	19.71%
SYRIZA:	50	16.33%
PASOK:	42	13.55%
ANEL:	32	10.47%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
Greens:		2.86%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.56%

They won't.

[Bacon King]

74.71% reporting (15393/20605 precincts)

ND loses a seat to DIMAR somewhere. Greens inching closer to threshold. Difference between ND and SYRIZA: 3.34%

ND:	110	19.68%
SYRIZA:	50	16.34%
PASOK:	42	13.55%
ANEL:	32	10.47%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.89%
DIMAR:	19	6.04%
Greens:		2.87%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.58%

[Insula Dei]

Don't know if anyone's posted this, but the interactive map on the Guardian of election results is great: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map

I second that.

[Bacon King]

px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat

[netzero19]

So an ND Pasok coalition now has a majority of 1...

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah I thought seat distribution was nationwide proportional (with the 3% threshold and the +50 seat thing), but then apparently each constituency has seats as well but these seats aren't really distributed proportionally but the national numbers still match what they should be if seat distribution was done nationally?!