Greece 2012

[Dereich]

And ND loses another to ANEL. ND/PASOK no longer works.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.

[Dereich]

And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.

Yeah, but now it wouldn't even work in theory.

[Bacon King]

How much further does ND have to drop before they lose another seat?

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution. For example, ND currently has 0 seats out of 4 from Imathias, where they're in first, but 3 out of 8 seats in Irakleiou, where they're in fifth.

Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?

No, that's the approximate percentage of the vote a party would need to reach a majority from the bonus seats.

[Leftbehind]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

[Bacon King]

89.61% reporting (18464/20605 precincts)

As previously mentioned, ND loses a seat to ANEL.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.72%

ND:	109	19.26%
SYRIZA:	51	16.54%
PASOK:	41	13.42%
ANEL:	33	10.53%
KKE:	26	8.41%
XA:	21	6.91%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.90%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

[Bacon King]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

I'd guess like nine seats or so, but see:

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution.

[Beet]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

[Leftbehind]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

Probably because you can't f'ing read? It's obvious from what I wrote I didn't regard it a possibility, I was interested in terms of electoral peculiarity, and for possible future elections.

Thanks Bacon King.

[jaichind]

I guess the only realistic government would be ND-PASOK-DIMAR like I mentioned before.  This government can have a programme of staying in Eurozone and chip away at the deal with the EU bailout but not at the expense of exiting the Euro.  Not sure how realistic this is or how long it would last.  But I can see no other government.  If this does not work out then I guess it would another election.  

[Bacon King]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you

[jaichind]

Markets are already reacting.  US stock futures are off 0.9%.  Oil is off 2% and Korean stock exchange is off 1.5%

[Zuza]

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

And yet another example: Brazil since 1990 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Brazil#Election_results_1982-2010).

[Bacon King]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you

Yeah but following that logic we might as well ask the same thing about the Pirates. It's a useless conversation.

[Leftbehind]

You know, that's a stupid comparison.

[The Mikado]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

[Beet]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.

[Bacon King]

91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:	109	19.22%
SYRIZA:	51	16.57%
PASOK:	41	13.41%
ANEL:	33	10.54%
KKE:	26	8.40%
XA:	21	6.92%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.90%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

[Leftbehind]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

To the point where they'd even coalesce against it, despite being polar opposites on the political spectrum. DIMAR were, and have always been, the only possible coalition partner ND-PASOK can turn to.

[batmacumba]

ANEL and SYRIZA are anti-bailout, while DIMAR splited from SYRIZA to be on a pondered position. So, jaichind is probably right. Nevertheless, It would be an unstable coalition just like the last Italian leftist one. What do you think, px?

[batmacumba]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

Independent Greeks and SYRIZA are both passionately anti-austerity and would never participate in an austerity government.

Oh, didn't saw yours.

To the point where they'd even coalesce against it, despite being polar opposites on the political spectrum. DIMAR were, and have always been, the only possible coalition partner ND-PASOK can turn to.

[batmacumba]

91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:	109	19.22%
SYRIZA:	51	16.57%
PASOK:	41	13.41%
ANEL:	33	10.54%
KKE:	26	8.40%
XA:	21	6.92%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.90%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

Do you believe there is any space to SYRIZA reach ND? I mean, 2.65 in 8.52 is quite an accomplishment.

[Bacon King]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.

Glad I could help!

Here's a link to the earlier post I referenced, btw.