Greece 2012
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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 221927 times)
Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #450 on: May 07, 2012, 10:13:37 AM »
« edited: May 07, 2012, 11:37:28 AM by Comrade Sibboleth »

@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.



Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Now I'm confused - What are you complaining about? I simply stated that I believe the Euro has caused a great deal of harm, especially evidenced by the fact that 7% of Greeks have been lured into voting for open national socialists. I find it ironic that the currency that was supposed to enhance freedom and peace in Europe has lead to consequences such as this.

Do you disagree with this?

No. However, I would not say the problem has just been the euro.

But the tones of your remarks have had all the hallmarks of smugness and a sense of superiority. At least, to me.
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Meeker
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« Reply #451 on: May 07, 2012, 10:17:12 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 10:19:35 AM by Meeker »

The ANEL leader is refusing to meet with ND; says they are "traitors."

ND has met with SYRIZA, PASOK and DIMAR (though DIMAR has said it would not support an ND-PASOK government). ND not meeting with KKE or XA for obvious reasons.

SYRIZA has also ruled out a coalition with ND.

I think all that together shoots any possible formula to bits.
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Beet
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« Reply #452 on: May 07, 2012, 10:17:26 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 10:19:39 AM by Beet »

There's no point in supporting the anti-austerity far right when there are anti-austerity leftists to support, as in the case in Greece.

The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #453 on: May 07, 2012, 10:19:27 AM »

Not to interrupt the discussion, but coalition news:

-Samaras says he'll probably conclude exploratory mandate tomorrow, success or failure
-ANEL refused to even enter talks with ND
-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.
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Franzl
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« Reply #454 on: May 07, 2012, 10:20:52 AM »

But the tones of your remarks have had all the hallmarks of smugness and a sense of superiority. At least, to me.

Well to an extent. I feel confirmed in my belief that the Euro is destined to cause trouble. I

Sense of superiority to what or who though? The Greeks? No. While I do believe they made a very immature and dangerous decision yesterday (something px would certainly agree to), bad times are known to bring out the worst in voters. The average Greek voter, I believe I read in the Frankfurt Rundschau this morning, earns 30% less than he did two years ago. While you can argue about whether they were making too much to begin with..... on a personal level, it's certainly very devestating.

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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #455 on: May 07, 2012, 10:22:48 AM »

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

KKE wants actual power like they want the plague.
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Franzl
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« Reply #456 on: May 07, 2012, 10:24:09 AM »

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

KKE wants actual power like they want the plague.

Indeed. Perpetual opposition is their entire raison d'être.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #457 on: May 07, 2012, 10:35:32 AM »

An anti-austerity coalition would have to include either one of the two 'system' parties or the Nazis, and one including the Nazis would have a majority of 2 seats, unless Tsipras thinks a few ND or PASOK MPs can be lured away. A couple dozen defections would keep the Nazis out but I'm not sure if anybody considers that at all likely or not.
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politicus
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« Reply #458 on: May 07, 2012, 10:37:26 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 12:11:48 PM by politicus »

The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.
That's because its completely unrealistic. The Euro was and is first and foremost a political project and the German-French axis is still the core of the EU. No common European currency without France.

As a Scandinavian I can regret that because your idea would be appealing to Denmark and Sweden. You cant sell the Euro to Scandinavian voters, but a new D-Mark would be another matter.

Regarding Greece the chances of avoiding a second election looks slim (below 5%). Any thoughts about who would win a rematch?
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Meeker
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« Reply #459 on: May 07, 2012, 10:48:31 AM »

Some finance ministry folks are now saying that the country could run out of money by the end of June if a new government isn't in place to negotiate another aid tranche and if government revenues fall below the forecast.

Also KKE is now saying that ND did reach out to them but KKE refused to meet. lol
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #460 on: May 07, 2012, 10:56:02 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 10:58:03 AM by Senator wormyguy »

The guys on Something Awful argued that the ND's best hope is to encourage bribe individual members of ANEL to jump ship to ND and members of DIMAL to join PASOK.  It'd be a tough sell (who wants to climb onto a sinking ship?), but with the right kind of inducements, it doesn't seem too far out.

That's exactly what I was thinking.  (Also, what's so conservative about ANEL anyway?  Socon/anti-immigrant?)

An anti-austerity coalition would have to include either one of the two 'system' parties or the Nazis, and one including the Nazis would have a majority of 2 seats, unless Tsipras thinks a few ND or PASOK MPs can be lured away. A couple dozen defections would keep the Nazis out but I'm not sure if anybody considers that at all likely or not.

Perhaps everyone-but-Nazis with the Nazis giving confidence and supply?  (Although I imagine anything involving the Nazis will cause DIMAR or SYRIZA deputies to defect to PASOK, giving the grand coalition a majority).



My Greece, you are a clusterphuck!  Thanks for sinking the US economy, assholes! Angry
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Franzl
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« Reply #461 on: May 07, 2012, 11:05:43 AM »

It's not the same thing (reserve currency status), but it's not like the U.S. is in much better financial shape than Greece. Look at the American deficit.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #462 on: May 07, 2012, 11:09:09 AM »

It's not the same thing (reserve currency status), but it's not like the U.S. is in much better financial shape than Greece. Look at the American deficit.

Well of course, but it's not it's caused an international financial panic yet.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #463 on: May 07, 2012, 11:33:09 AM »

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

Serious stuff aside, a governing coalition gathering paleocommies, random far-lefties, populist right-wingers and literal nazis would be something quite epically hilarious to see.
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batmacumba
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« Reply #464 on: May 07, 2012, 11:47:14 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 11:50:30 AM by batmacumba »

@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.


Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Mist, I really don't know what's not clear. You were the only to have misunderstood. My sentence does not contain the word 'Greek' at all. And if It was like you thought, it would be about turn out, which is obviously not the case.

Tweed, to use a metaphore which is dare to you marxists, it does matter the cat's colour. Not only this, but the puss may chase birds along with rats. And this may be worse than the rats.

EDIT. Opposite to other forumers, I do not bash the results at all. I find them very healthy, actually, despite the utterly-retarded branch.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #465 on: May 07, 2012, 12:27:53 PM »

For the record, here's the final results with 100% in.

Turnout:         65.10%
Valid votes:    97.64%
Invalid votes:   1.80%
Blank votes:     0.55%


Final margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.07%

ND:  108    18.85%
SYRIZA:    52    16.78%
PASOK:    41    13.18%
ANEL:    33    10.60%
KKE:    26    8.48%
XA:    21    6.97%
DIMAR:    19    6.11%
(total below threshold)Sad      (19.03%)
Greens:       2.93%
LAOS:       2.90%
DISY:       2.55%
DX!:       2.15%
Drasi:       1.80%
ANTARSYA:       1.19%
(parties <1%)Sad       (5.43%)

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #466 on: May 07, 2012, 12:33:43 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 12:35:59 PM by Enfin ! »

A pity the greens didn't get in. Tongue

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.
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jaichind
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« Reply #467 on: May 07, 2012, 12:39:57 PM »

Samaras of ND hands back mandate to Prez saying that he could not form a government.  I guess it would be Syriza's turn.  I doubt they would come up with anything.  It seems another election is coming.  I am surprised at this turn of events.  I figured that Samaras would try for al least a couple of days.  It could be that he feels that any government would not last long and will further destroy the ND.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Antonis Samaras, who received a
mandate to form a government for Greece today, said he failed to
reach agreement with the five party leaders he spoke with and
handed back the mandate to President Karolos Papoulias.
     The mandate to form a government will now pass to the head
of the second-biggest parliamentary party arising from the
elections yesterday, Syriza.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #468 on: May 07, 2012, 12:41:39 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2012, 12:49:08 PM by Bacon King »

BREAKING FROM AP (if not entirely expected): ND leader Samaras announces he is unable to form a coalition government.

So Syriza is up to bat tomorrow; let's see what they can do!

edit- my internet weirded out and it took me five minutes to make this post, so I got ninja'd by jaichind Sad
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Bacon King
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« Reply #469 on: May 07, 2012, 12:54:27 PM »

In other news, here's an amusing bit of sensationalism from Forbes.

Highlights:

Quote
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #470 on: May 07, 2012, 12:58:07 PM »

lol at the Hollande bit.  still nice to see some panic at the outer reaches of the business press.
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politicus
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« Reply #471 on: May 07, 2012, 12:59:48 PM »

Who do you think will gain from a new election? Establishment or new parties?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #472 on: May 07, 2012, 01:05:47 PM »

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

Serious stuff aside, a governing coalition gathering paleocommies, random far-lefties, populist right-wingers and literal nazis would be something quite epically hilarious to see.

The "everyone not in favor of austerity" coalition would be the most tragicomic government ever created.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #473 on: May 07, 2012, 01:06:59 PM »

A pity the greens didn't get in. Tongue

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.

It is, actually. Lowest Greek turnout for legislative elections in modern times. Voting is mandatory in Greece, and although there are no penalties enforced against non-voters, I think that still boosts participation somewhat. Greek turnout has historically been stable at around 80% (even through the 89-89-90 election trio). Over the two decades it's fallen some, usually been around 75%. 2009 was the lowest turnout since the dictatorship at 'only' 71%.

Who do you think will gain from a new election? Establishment or new parties?

I don't see how the establishment could benefit from all of this, though I suppose anything is possible.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #474 on: May 07, 2012, 01:12:09 PM »

A pity the greens didn't get in. Tongue

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.

It is, actually. Lowest Greek turnout for legislative elections in modern times. Voting is mandatory in Greece, and although there are no penalties enforced against non-voters, I think that still boosts participation somewhat. Greek turnout has historically been stable at around 80% (even through the 89-89-90 election trio). Over the two decades it's fallen some, usually been around 75%. 2009 was the lowest turnout since the dictatorship at 'only' 71%.

Ah, I see. Well, I still think it could have been worse.
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