Greece 2012

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SYRIZA would gain nothing from being part of a coalition they're not leading. It's not going to happen.

In the end PASOK will probably feel forced to join ND, but they're aware that doing so will mean confirming SYRIZA as the major centre-left party in the country for decades to come, and if things go bad for the coalition might also mean death for the entire party. So naturally they're at least going to try to get as many as possible to dip their hands in the blood.    

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I know that it would be extremely shaky, but is there any chance of ND forming a government without PASOK?  Perhaps an ND/DIMAR government if some more PASOK members defect to DIMAR?

[TheParliamentarian]

Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?

[tpfkaw]

13 out of 14 SYRIZA districts have a lower % reporting than nationally, good news for them.

Edit: Nevermind, seems some parts of the Greek elections website update faster than others.

[jaichind]

Thats interesting, because PASOK had no problem governing with 43% of the electorate in 2009

This was exactly what I was thinking a few minutes after I posted the PASOK position.

[Velasco]

ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.

But not the Papandreau one.  

Yes but what do you mean saying this? The fact is that there's still a majority against the memorandum and this is the reason why ND and PASOK are below their former numbers.

[minionofmidas]

Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?

Either that there's a shy nazi factor or that something in the last two weeks worked in their favor?

[jaichind]

It would be nice if someone would actually step up to the plate in that country and not constantly try to shift the burden to someone else.

It is sad the way the Greek politicians' inability to step up is probably giving the Germans more reason to think that Greeks are just a bunch of lazy slackers. 

Or that the Greeks are a bunch of very smart game theory players and they are doing a good cop (ND/PASOK) bad cop (SYRIZA) con job on the Germans and rest of EU.

[jaichind]

Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?

Either that there's a shy nazi factor or that something in the last two weeks worked in their favor?

I tend to guess that some of the communist votes went over the Golden Dawn.  They have similar social bases.  Whereas the communists are more of the same the Golden Dawn is at least proposing new radical solutions.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Golden Dawn   6,95%   188.708   -0,0%  change

opinion polls showed 3.9% before the blackout.   what does it mean when the only party seemingly unaffected by the last 6 weeks are the neo-nazis?

DIMAR has about the same share of the vote as last time as well, but both DIMAR and XA are losing seats because the shares of the microparties are down.

[Peter the Lefty]

ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.

But not the Papandreau one.  

Yes but what do you mean saying this? The fact is that there's still a majority against the memorandum and this is the reason why ND and PASOK are below their former numbers.

What I'm saying, and what Jaichind is saying, is that PASOK claims that a government whose parties got 41% between them wouldn't have democratic legitimacy, yet in 2009, they had no problem forming a government whose only party got 43%.  I didn't realize that there's a magic number between 41 and 43 that they think gives democratic legitimacy.  

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

So will there be a third election now?

[jaichind]

 
     June 17 (New York Times) -- Alexis Tsipras, Leader of Syriza
Party, Concedes in Greek Election

[jaichind]

     Athens, Greece (AP) -- The pro-bailout New Democracy party
came in first Sunday in Greece's national election, and its
leader has proposed forming a pro-euro coalition government.
     New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras says "the Greek people
today voted for Greece to remain on its European path and in
the eurozone."
     He says voters chose "policies that will bring jobs,
growth, justice and security.
     His party beat the anti-bailout Syriza party, which wanted
to cancel Greece's international bailouts. Syriza chief Alexis
Tsipras has conceded the election.

[jaichind]

     June 17 (AFP) -- The leader of Greece's anti-austerity
radical leftist party Syriza on Sunday conceded defeat in a
general election and turned down his conservative rival's offer
to join a national unity government.
     "I spoke to (New Democracy leader Antonis) Samaras to
congratulate him. He can form a government," said Alexis
Tsipras, whose party came second with 27.1 percent of the vote
according to the first official estimates.
     "We will be here as the opposition, we represent a
majority of people opposed to the bailout deal," he said.
     hec-cb/dt/jmm

[TheParliamentarian]

So will there be a third election now?

yes...

[Velasco]

What I'm saying, and what Jaichind is saying, is that PASOK claims that a government whose parties got 41% between them wouldn't have democratic legitimacy, yet in 2009, they had no problem forming a government whose only party got 43%.  I didn't realize that there's a magic number between 41 and 43 that they think gives democratic legitimacy. 

Because the election that PASOK won was a "normal" one,  before the memorandum. This time makes sense what PASOK spokeswoman is saying.

Syriza is ahead in Samos, a KKE stronghold.

[Beet]

What I'm saying, and what Jaichind is saying, is that PASOK claims that a government whose parties got 41% between them wouldn't have democratic legitimacy, yet in 2009, they had no problem forming a government whose only party got 43%.  I didn't realize that there's a magic number between 41 and 43 that they think gives democratic legitimacy.  

Because the election that PASOK won was a "normal" one,  before the memorandum. This time makes sense what PASOK spokeswoman is saying.

Syriza is ahead in Samos, a KKE stronghold.

An election is an election. It isn't invalid just because the issues in one are different from the issues in another.

Another election is not likely to produce any more satisfactory result than this one, as long as ND and SYRIZA are at loggerheads.

Besides, what PASOK is asking for is basically that all the non-KKE/Golden Dawn parties form an unpopular coalition, forcing anyone who is against the government to vote KKE or Golden Dawn. This is a recipie for Golden Dawn's emergence as a big national party, the worst possible scenario. It is absolustely craven for PASOK to puts is own party interest ahead to risk this. They are making Samaras into Bruning and themselves into the hapless German SPD.

[minionofmidas]

ND's lead in eastern Crete down to two votes.

[Velasco]

 

An election is an election. It isn't invalid just because the issues in one are different from the issues in another.

Another election is not likely to produce any more satisfactory result than this one, as long as ND and SYRIZA are at loggerheads.

Besides, what PASOK is asking for is basically that all the non-KKE/Golden Dawn parties form an unpopular coalition, forcing anyone who is against the government to vote KKE or Golden Dawn. This is a recipie for Golden Dawn's emergence as a big national party, the worst possible scenario. It is absolustely craven for PASOK to puts is own party interest ahead to risk this. They are making Samaras into Bruning and themselves into the hapless German SPD.

I didn't say that the election is invalid. Your argumentation makes sense but a "national unity" government also does. Brüning's government hadn't parliamentary support; he was appointed by Hindenburg and made laws by decree.

[minionofmidas]

...which is precisely what Europe wants (with Merkel as Hindenburg) but the Greek constitution bans it and prescribes new elections instead if Brüning can't get the SPD onboard.

[Beet]

A national unity government isn't going to happen. All PASOK is doing is deepening the crisis by preventing the country from having a badly needed government.

[jaichind]

Euro is up 2 cents on US dollar since the exit polls.  If PASOK refuses to join ND gov it will go the other direction real soon.

[hawkeye59]

How likely would be a ND-PASOK coalition, with Venizelos as PM?
Also, is PASOK just bluffing?

[jaichind]

     June 17 (Bloomberg) -- European governments indicated a
willingness to adjust the terms of Greece’s bailout package as
long as a new government “swiftly” emerges from today’s
closely fought election.
     “The Eurogroup expects the Troika institutions to return
to Athens as soon as a new government is in place to exchange
views with the new government on the way forward,” euro-area
finance ministers, known as the Eurogroup, said in an e-mailed
statement in Brussels tonight.