Greece 2012 (user search)
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Author Topic: Greece 2012  (Read 223012 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 26, 2012, 07:00:47 AM »

Apologies for my extreme ignorance on the matter, but is it actually possible that the election will produce a government that refuses the austerity mandated by the terms of EU bailout?

If so, then how are things likely to play out?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2012, 09:17:24 PM »

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2012, 09:01:48 AM »

On a related note, the Intrade prices in these markets has gone up markedly in the last week or so:

Any country currently using the Euro to announce the intention to drop it...
before Dec. 31, 2012: 42.0
before Dec. 31, 2013: 60.0
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2012, 04:52:16 AM »

From Intrade:

Any current Eurozone member to drop out of the Euro by end of 2012: 30.2
by the end of 2013: 50.0
by the end of 2014: 59.1

All three numbers are down from a week ago, but still up quite a bit from a year ago.
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