Greece 2012

[Tender Branson]

I've read somewhere that PASOK is rising in the polls.

Maybe they win this thing (if the election is called in a few months) ...

[Tender Branson]

Here's the standard.at article about XA translated to English with Google Translate:

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Disturbing ...

[Tender Branson]

It's very common that people vote for extreme right or extreme left partys during bad times.

[Tender Branson]

They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

[Tender Branson]

Given the high likelihood of an incredibly fractured Parliament, here's the procedure for forming a government in Greece in the absence of a Parliamentary majority:

What if XA, for some improbable reason, became the largest party?

That's about as probable as a member of the communist party being elected President of the US.

Anyway, they've been under constant attack from the entire political spectrum during the last month and I expect them to underperform the last polls.

I don't think they will underperform, but I think they won't get more than 10%.

Despite being attacked from all the parties it didn't stop the other Right-wingers in Europe from overpolling by a few points, because their supporters are still very motivated to go out and vote. So, probably no underperforming (less than 5%).

[Tender Branson]

Without reading through their Wikipedia article, I would be interested what the XA's position on the German-led austerity measures for Greece is. Do they favor the annexation of Greece to Germany ?

[Tender Branson]

They only polled at 5%, so in order to become largest party they would need another 15% or so, maybe even 20% because the ND might get easily as much as 25%.

And even if they get 1st (bad for Greece's image, I know), but then there are the more normal partys that can form a government and XA will probably fade into nothingness in the next years.

I was imagining XA-LAOS-?, but I can't find anyone willing to be "?".

I think LAOS is a totally different construction site than XA (but maybe I'm wrong). I always thought of LAOS as a very rightwing FPÖ/BZÖ-like party without the Nazi component. But maybe Lyndon knows more.

[Tender Branson]

Results:

http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html?lang=en

[Tender Branson]

The Nazis at 7% right now, with about 1/5 counted.

Just like I expected them. They polled at about 5/6% before the election, but I predicted that they'll overpoll slightly, but not get more than 10%.

[Tender Branson]

Greece increasingly reminds me of that guy in that Scary Movie clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rMpCud1IwQ

[Tender Branson]

Christine Lagarde says that it is payback time for Greece

CHRISTINE Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that she had more sympathy for children in Africa than austerity-hit Greeks, who could help themselves by paying their taxes.

In an interview with The Guardian, the managing director of the IMF said that she was not worried by the economic and social impact of austerity on the Mediterranean country.

"No, I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens," Ms Lagarde told the British newspaper.

"Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax."

Ms Lagarde went on to say that she thought "equally" about Greeks who were deprived of public services and of Greek citizens who did not pay their tax.

"I think they should also help themselves collectively," she said. Asked how, she replied: "By all paying their tax".

Asked by The Guardian if she was essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe that they had had a nice time and that it was now payback time, she responded: "That's right".

Ms Lagarde reiterated that the IMF had no intention of softening the austerity demands to which Greece agreed in return for a multi-billion euro bailout.

Opinion polls suggest that Syriza, a leftist, anti-austerity party that came came second in Greece's May 6 election, could to win the vote at a new election on June 17. There are fears that if Greece turns its back on the austerity program, it could be forced out of the eurozone, triggering a Europe-wide crisis.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/christine-lagarde-says-that-it-is-payback-time-for-greece/story-fnawdwo8-1226367715480

[Tender Branson]

px, what does the other stuff on that page below mean ?

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=43642&categories_id=69

[Tender Branson]

px, what does the other stuff on that page below mean ?

http://www.epikaira.gr/epikairo.php?id=43642&categories_id=69

Ignore that poll. It was commissioned by Epikaira, a conspiracy-peddling publication with no credibility whatsoever. Even if the topiline numbers were correct, it would still be a bad result for SYRIZA since two weeks ago they showed it more than 6 points ahead of ND.

But VPRC looked like the best pollster to me in the 1st election.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

29% ND
28% SYRIZA
14% PASOK
  6% DIMAR
  5% ANEL
  5% KKE
  4% XA
  9% Others

[Tender Branson]

When can we expect the exit polls again ?

8pm Athens time (which would be 7 here) ?

[Tender Branson]

Interestingly, I found out that I have a Greek cable channel on my TV.

Will probably use this ERT World one for the Exit Polls.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like my prediction was almost correct, based on the exit polls.

Don't think that there will be enough seats for a ND-PASOK government though.

[Tender Branson]

Numbers seem to come in and with about 15% in in a few districts, it seems ND is gaining the most.

[Tender Branson]

In many areas so far, the ND is doubling its share from May.

Could be offset by a strong SYRIZA showing in the Athens area though (which currently is the case).

[Tender Branson]

Why is this site showing the district results but not the national results ?