Greece 2012

[minionofmidas]

If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

There are historical reasons why they won't.

What happened to the old Synapsiamos?

Renamed (merged with some minor organizations to form Syriza).

[minionofmidas]

The majority bonus and whatever in the world Italy's system is technically called are probably the most flagrantly absurd electoral systems going right now, at least on paper. Straight-out just allocating blocks of seats to whoever got the most votes just rubs me the wrong way.

French local elections have that too.

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

[minionofmidas]

I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.

[minionofmidas]

More seriously, the represent-a-community thing is why the idea doesn't seem as offensive in local elections (for smaller municipalities) as it does in federal parliaments.

And besides, a threshold to representation is not really all that different from a plurality bonus.

[minionofmidas]

Elections postponed to april in the hope that the government can maybe actually agree on anything for the next two months at any rate.

[minionofmidas]

PASOK 7.0%    ND 18.6%    KKE 8.7%    LAOS 4.3%    SYRIZA 8.2%    DIMAR 7.5%    Greens 3.6%    XA 1.7% (a new nazi party, apparently?)   other / undecided 40.4%

Oh wow. Oh lol.

[minionofmidas]

PASOK 7.0%    ND 18.6%    KKE 8.7%    LAOS 4.3%    SYRIZA 8.2%    DIMAR 7.5%    Greens 3.6%    XA 1.7% (a new nazi party, apparently?)   other / undecided 40.4%

Oh wow. Oh lol.

That poll seems to be out of line with the rest though.

Not much apart from the high Green support. It's just that most of the others are recalculated to 100%.

[minionofmidas]

PASOK in fifth and ND at a paltry 30ish percent would be amusing in terms of forming a government out of that. KKE wants nothing to do with any government, to begin with.

Which is why I'm rooting for KKE to top the poll given Greece's electoral law.

[minionofmidas]

It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.

The fact that the KKE still lives in the 1950s and thinks every other party (left and right altogether) is an evil bourgeois enemy of the proletariate.

Also, that they're right about that (though nothing else whatsoever).

[minionofmidas]

Quite possibly.

[minionofmidas]

I do, that's why I said "quite possibly", and not "they'll be around... somehow... in some form". Heck, even Israeli Labour is a more genuinely Socialist party than that thing.

[minionofmidas]

They'll be held when Angela Merkel sees a chance of victory for her goons. Not before.

They haven't been officially called yet.

[minionofmidas]

The major polling development of the last month has been the rise of yet another new party, ANEL, a populist/anti-diktat ND splinter.

[minionofmidas]

They'll be held when Angela Merkel sees a chance of victory for her goons. Not before.

They haven't been officially called yet.

The coalition would gain a majority if the elections are held now. Maybe this will not be the case in 6 months.

I'm referring to an ND majority. I'm also being mildly caustic.

[minionofmidas]

The major polling development of the last month has been the rise of yet another new party, ANEL, a populist/anti-diktat ND splinter.

[minionofmidas]

Sorry, I skipped this post. Well, that sucks.

Not really, seeing as they are drawing votes from ND.

[minionofmidas]

Cool.

[minionofmidas]

PASOK is rebounding. (And not at ND's expense.)

Averaging eight polls by eight different companies released over the past three days, leaving out the ninth one that isn't reweighted to 100% and doesn't tell undecideds apart from others.

ND 22.9
PASOK 16.5
Syriza 10.6
KKE 9.7
ANEL 9.4
Dimar 8.2
XA 5.1
LAOS 3.6
Greens 3.3
DISY 2.9
other 7.0 (some of these polls give breakouts to further parties, but none near the 3.0% threshold)
And then I added the totals and thought I had an error. And then I double-checked everything. And one of these pollsters is not reweighted to 100 but rather includes another 6.2 undecided / did not state (well it's abbreviated D.I./D.A. in the link.) Pah.

It really is a shame about Syriza's split. They'd have a chance of actually winning this election without it. As is, there's the sceptre of a continued ND-PASOK government after the election thanks to the 50-seat bonus.

[minionofmidas]

Why the Dimar collapse ?

No idea, and we need px to wean himself off boring American elections and devote his attention here, but I would figure they'd be a logical intermediate host for disappointed PASOK voters floating back?

[minionofmidas]

Why wouldn't people reared on anticommunist rhetoric who are not dense (and not rich) enough to continue voting Conservative vote Nazi in such a near-apocalyptic crisis? That's what they've always done. LAOS of course have sold out; just be glad ANEL exists to draw enough of them off.

[minionofmidas]

Also, lol at whoever decided that this picture needed to go into Golden Dawn's wikipedia entry:

[minionofmidas]

It really is a shame about Syriza's split. They'd have a chance of actually winning this election without it. As is, there's the sceptre of a continued ND-PASOK government after the election thanks to the 50-seat bonus.

What? SYRIZA's split?

That's what the DIMAR is, I think.

Yep, basically Syriza's moderate wing. (Since joined by several PASOK defectors.)

[minionofmidas]

http://www.athensnews.gr/issue/13438/40086

Now-dated article that sheds some light on the issue.

[minionofmidas]

PASOK did introduce a fully proportional system in the late 80s. That led to three elections in a year and to the abandonment of the idea by the Greek political ruling class.

[minionofmidas]

Disturbing ...

Google's cheek in offering that "translation" programe? Quite.