Greece 2012

[Meeker]

What's the best English-language source for news coverage of this? (Is there like a France24 equivalent?)

[Meeker]

So this basically has to result in a coalition, right? There's no way anyone is getting to 40%.

[Meeker]

The official website has the first seat estimate

ND: 114
SYRIZA: 47
PASOK: 44
ANEL: 31
KKE: 25
Nazis: 21
DIMAR: 18

[Meeker]

ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

[Meeker]

ND % of the vote
2009: 33.5%
2012: 20.7%

-12.8%

ND seats
2009: 91
2012: 113

+22

lol Greek electoral system

Because PASOK was utterly destroyed

43.9% and 129 seats to
14.4% and 44 seats

The smaller parties, especially the anti-bailout left (Syriza, KKE) and right (Independent Greeks, LAOS, the Nazis), took a way bigger chunk of the vote.

From what I can tell, the pro-bailout parties aren't going to be able to form a government, which probably is getting the Euro bankers into a panic.

I'm aware of why it happened; that doesn't make the system any less ridiculous.

[Meeker]

I think having the seat bonus may actually make things more difficult... without it a SYRIZA-PASOK-KKE-DIMAR coalition might be able to get hobbled together.

[Meeker]

Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?

[Meeker]

Why are KKE and Syriza so against each other?
Left vs hard left...both against austerity...

Historical tensions... two decades ago they were in an alliance and then had a falling out

[Meeker]

...I don't see why the coalition fails.  ND-PASOK, despite their historic animosity towards each other, have a vested interest in making the grand coalition (not so grand anymore, but take the term) work, because if they call people back to the polls, they'll just keep going down.  An ND-PASOK coalition has 153/300 seats, enough, barely, to trudge along passing unpopular austerity packages through etc.  If they call another election, PASOK will likely sink to the point that SYRIZA might become the largest party and form an anti-austerity government.

153 (if they even end up with that by the end of the night) is far too unstable given the amount of defections that ND and PASOK have seen recently.

[Meeker]

The good news for the Greens is that they'll get another shot at making it into Parliament in only a month

[Meeker]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?

Anyone who claims to know what the eventual outcome is going to be is a liar/a fool... there's no way of knowing.

[Meeker]

ND is on the verge of losing another seat.

[Meeker]

And there it goes; ND to SYRIZA.

[Meeker]

The ANEL leader is refusing to meet with ND; says they are "traitors."

ND has met with SYRIZA, PASOK and DIMAR (though DIMAR has said it would not support an ND-PASOK government). ND not meeting with KKE or XA for obvious reasons.

SYRIZA has also ruled out a coalition with ND.

I think all that together shoots any possible formula to bits.

[Meeker]

Some finance ministry folks are now saying that the country could run out of money by the end of June if a new government isn't in place to negotiate another aid tranche and if government revenues fall below the forecast.

Also KKE is now saying that ND did reach out to them but KKE refused to meet. lol

[Meeker]

Well KKE has refused to meet with SYRIZA as well. Tsipras has laid out a schedule of meetings that take him through Thursday so I guess we'll have to wait until then for him to officially give up. He's also meeting with the Greens and another minor leftist party that missed the threshold (perhaps to boost their profile for the next election?) and with "business and trade union leaders" (just for kicks I guess? to make him seem more Prime Ministerial?)

[Meeker]

That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

[Meeker]

Where do ANEL and DIMAR stand on Greece staying in the Eurozone?

[Meeker]

English results

Nothing in yet though

[Meeker]

I'm quite sure they had a national tally up by this time in the count in may.

Indeed. It's rather frustrating.