Lets do some simple math. It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result. I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below
Political Party Percentage (%)
New Democracy 17 - 20
Syriza 15.5 - 18.5
Pasok 14 - 17
Independent Greeks 10 - 12
Communist Party 7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn 6 - 8
Democratic Left 4.5 - 6.5
Laos 2.5 - 3.5
Green Party 2.5 - 3.5
Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%. One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls. So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%. This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats. Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.
If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract." This would be very bad for the markets monday.
But the prediction still gives ND and PASOK 152 seats, which is a tiny majority.
