Greece 2012

[justfollowingtheelections]

I doubt it, no one expected SYRIZA to do so well and KKE voters wouldn't vote for a non-communist party under any circumstances.  A perfect example of this is how the labor unions refused to meet with Tsipras (the labor unions are pretty much run by KKE with a little bit of PASOK, which is why KKE always gets appr. 8%, the labor union vote).

SYRIZA had the support of the Democratic Left and ANEL (Kammenos) which would have given them 52+19+33=104 seats, so they could have governed with an additional 17 votes if at least 60 MPs from other parties didn't vote.  It would have been really difficult to govern however if ND had 108 MPs, so they asked Venizelos and Samaras to publicly declare they are against the bailout.

SYRIZA is by far the most socially liberal party in Greece, so I'm surprised they did so well, but I guess that also explains why they did so well in urban centers and the islands.

Venizelos tomorrow will ask Kouvelis (Democratic Left) to become the Prime Minister in a PASOK-ND-Democratic Left government and when he refuses in the next elections SYRIZA will win first place easily while PASOK will be in danger of not even getting 3%.  ND will also lose some votes to ANEL and perhaps to the new alliance between DISY and Drasi.  It will be interesting to see how the traditional right-wing voters of DISY react to the fact that one of the leaders of Drasi is gay activist Vallianatos.

I also have a feeling that KKE will lose votes to SYRIZA since many left wing voters are beginning to realize what a joke the communist party is.  What's interesting is that even if SYRIZA is the first party they will not get the 50-seat bonus because they are a coalition of 16 smaller parties, and coalitions are not allowed to get the bonus.  There is some talk however that the SYRIZA parties might unite into one in order to form a government.

It will be interesting to see how people react to Golden Dawn.  A lot of their voters didn't realize what they were dealing with since they media never gave them the chance to speak before the elections (huge mistake) and now that they're learning more about them, a lot of older voters are shocked.  So there's a good chance that their percentage will drop.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Interesting post. I doubt Pasok will fail that much. They have some core supporters (7-8%).

Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous. But if they dont, who gets the bonus? The second party could be ND again, would they get it then?

No one does.  All 300 seats are allocated based on percentage of votes to parties with more than 3%.
PASOK does have some power with the unions, but it's mostly KKE, which is where KKE gets most of their votes.
PASOK has no reason to exist now that SYRIZA is the "big" leftist" party, since SYRIZA is to the left of PASOK.  

[justfollowingtheelections]

Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous.

It probably will be very hard to unite all 13 (according to Wikipedia) parties, from social democrats to maoists and trotskyists, into one in such a short time...

Maybe Synaspismos will try to run independently?

No, they won't run independently.  One of SYRIZA's greatest assets is Manolis Glezos, the symbol of Greece's resistance during the Nazi occupation, who is a member the Active Citizens, one of the 13 parties that form the coalition.  A lot of older Greeks are really hesitant to vote for a leftist party, but Glezos' presence probably played a big role in SYRIZA getting such a high percentage.
I think it's more likely they will unite and change their name.

But there are some rumors that Venizelos will ask Kouvelis to form his own government without any input from PASOK or ND.  If Kouvelis and ND accept the offer, it will be a really interesting development because isn't exactly against the bailout.
This is more of an act of desparation by Venizelos who knows PASOK will be destroyed if the elections take place next month.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Most PASOK or ND voters don't vote based on ideology, so with PASOK losing power they will have to find a new home.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The first poll after the elections has SYRIZA on top:

http://www.alphatv.gr/getattachment/Microsites/Ekloges-2012/Polls/20-04-2012/Δημοσκοπηση-Alpha-10-05-12.pdf.aspx

SYRIZA 27.7
ND 20.3
PASOK 12.6
ANEL 10.2
KKE 7
Golden Dawn 5.7
DIMAR 4.9

Tsipras as the VP of the European Left wrote to Barroso, the EU Commission and the Eurogroup suggesting that the EU re-examines its current policies, which are putting in danger the future of all europeans.

In the meantime PASOK and DIMAR reached an agreement to form a government for 2 years with Kouvelis being the PM, and Venizelos is planning to request the support of all democratic parties (as he described them) meaning SYRIZA and ND.  ND will most definitely accept, but SYRIZA insists that Greece doesn't accept the bailout.  ANEL, which Venizelos apparently doesn't consider a democratic party for some reason, has already said they will only join a coalition if PASOK and ND change their position on the bailout.

Kouvelis knows that forming a government with the support of PASOK and ND only (without the support of SYRIZA) would be political suicide so there's still a lot of uncertainty.
If a government isn't formed within 3 days, the country's President (Papoulias) will have to invite the leaders of all 7 parliamentary groups, which means that he will have to shake hands with the leader of Golden Dawn.  Papoulias fought during WWII and has no intention to meet with the Golden Dawn leader, so he will probably push for a solution within the next 3 days.

[justfollowingtheelections]

They both want to remain in the Eurozone, however the ANEL leader claims that the current EU leaders are corrupt, while Kouvelis would like to see the EU integrate even more (publish eurobonds, have a common foreign and economic policy etc.).
SYRIZA btw is also in favor of remaining in the Eurozone but they claim that different policy is required due to Greece being in a recession for 5 years.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Well, if all the Euro countries decide to pursue a sensible policy for Euro, Germany will have no choice, but to end their short-view egoist policy.

The current laissez-faire monetary of the Euro is the problem. And since it's good for Germany, Germany froces it to stay that way. Which is dumb, because it will lead to an economical collapse in Europe.

But Merkel doesn't care. She won't been in power when that will happen. She chose short term popularity, without giving a damn about future.

Well sure, I agree with that. But with regard to the topic of this thread (Greece 2012) it is Syriza that is lying to the people about its platform- a pure fantasy. If they try to implement it, they may not end up any better than PASOK. And at that point you have the mainstream and the radical left discredited - who is left? Hint: the name has a shiny element in it, and a time of day.

SYRIZA has a very clear position.  What they're saying is that Greece needs to finally tax its rich (and that's where the money will come to pay for the social safety net that is collapsing due to Merkel's policies).  They're also saying that under EU laws no one has the right to force Greece out of the eurozone, which was confirmed by the Austrian Finance Minister, and it wouldn't benefit the the other Eurozone countries either as it would lead to a great amount of instability in all Mediterrenean economies.  The other thing they're saying is that Greece must begin producing green energy (solar, wind), something they obviously have in abundance.  Don't forget that SYRIZA along with being a leftist party is also a green party.
Finally when a country has been in a recession for 5 years, at some point the austerity has to stop, if only for humanitarian reasons.
 

[justfollowingtheelections]

The number of female MPs by party:

SYRIZA 22
ND 18
Independent Greeks 7
DIMAR 5
KKE 4
PASOK 3
Golden eggs 1 (Michaloliakos' wife)