Greece 2012

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Bit like the Spanish election: they hate both main parties.

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Elections postponed to april in the hope that the government can maybe actually agree on anything for the next two months at any rate.

Democracy + dealing with controversial but important sh*t = not work properly.

(Democracy/Theocracy) + dealing with controversial but important sh*t = not work properly.

Fixed.

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It's true that around the world left-wing parties tend to balkanize, but what is preventing the three left-wing, non-tainted parties from forming a coalition and presenting a united left-wing, pro-default platform? Surely if there was an opportunity for success, this is it.

Don't the KKE, SYRIZA and the DIMAR hate eachother completely?

Also, don't forget that New Democracy will get that 40 seat bonus for being FPTP which would make the arithmatic difficult.

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(Source: YAHOO News)
Greek coalition government expels 43 deputies, over dissent in crucial debt vote

Can anyone tell me what the tallies are at the moment (or is that impossible)?

PASOK 132
ND 62
KKE 21
LAOS 14
Left Coalition 9
Independents 62(!)

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VPRC (Feb 10th-13th) Changes from 2009 in italics
New Democracy 27.5 (-3) (-6)
Democratic Left 16% (+3)
Communist 14 (+1.5) (+6.5)
Radical Left 13.5 (+1) (+8.9)
PASOK 11 (-1) (-32.9)
LAOS 4.5 (-1.5) (-1.1)
Greens 3.5 (+0.5)
Golden Dawn 2.5 (nc)
Democratic Alliance 2 (-0.5)
Citizens Chariot 2 (-0.5)
Anticapitalist Left 1 (nc)

No majority for the ND. I actually think DIMAR could just about win this...

And that landslide in 2009 seems so long ago.

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Is it even going to be possible for anyone to form a government with the current numbers?

A PASOK-ND coalition may be possible, although it won't exactly have a comfortable majority. If the two parties don't have a majority, they may get it if they let the Nazis in. It seems like they might be underpolling (one would certainly expect LAOS to be doing better, although participating in the government wasn't good for them from an electoral standpoint); does anyone know whether the Greek far-right generally underpolls?

I'm under the impression that the far-right underpolls everywhere.

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What happens if it becomes near enough impossible to form a government?

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More pressingly, WHY the "Golden Dawn" (Nazi) surge?

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It really is a shame about Syriza's split. They'd have a chance of actually winning this election without it. As is, there's the sceptre of a continued ND-PASOK government after the election thanks to the 50-seat bonus.

What? SYRIZA's split?

That's what the DIMAR is, I think.

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Something tells me the government formation's gonna drag on for a whiiiiiile...

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Any rumours?

Just seen a crap article on the Guardian saying Syriza will finish second.

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Lets do some simple math.  It seems ND + PASOK has 31-37% of the vote.
Lets take 34% as the result.  I know the rules are complex but assuming that we take the medium value of below

Political Party          Percentage (%)
New Democracy             17 - 20
Syriza                    15.5 - 18.5
Pasok                     14 - 17
Independent Greeks        10 - 12
Communist Party           7.5 - 9.5
Golden Dawn               6 - 8
Democratic Left           4.5 - 6.5
Laos                      2.5 - 3.5
Green Party               2.5 - 3.5

Gets us 88.5% assuming LAOS and Greens makes it past the 3%.  One has to assume Golden Dawn will perform better than exit polls.  So as long as LAOS and Greens make it past 3% the "wasted vote" would be around 10%.  This will give the pro-austrity package parties 95 PR seats.  Add in the 50 bonus seats which we can assume for now would be ND (could end up being Syriza) would still put the 2 mainstream parties at below majority.  

If that is what happends the new government would have to include parties what want to re-do the "contract."  This would be very bad for the markets monday.

But the prediction still gives ND and PASOK 152 seats, which is a tiny majority.

As if they could risk that! Look at the number of defections both sides have seen since this whole fiasco began.

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If a non-ND government is formed this would be a case of the largest party not participating in government, I wonder when the last time that has happened in Europe. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_parliamentary_election,_2011

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Says 1000 words.

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The most obvious being:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

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bourgeois press fail: CNBC refers to Tsipras as 'Greek Communist leader'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47323787

Forbes referred to him as "bailout-hater."  The article's title was "Bailout-Hater Tsipras Now Trying to Form Government in Greece." (they could've at least said something more professional like "Bailout Opponent" or "Anti-Bailout Leftist.")  It also called his rhetoric "violent."  And of course, the last paragraph was all about how markets are reacting negatively. 

The best i've seen him described by the clueless English-language press is "far-left", which is pushing it.

Why can international press never cover other country's elections properly!?!?!?

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If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

EU santioned anti-democracy!? Well, i'm shocked.

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If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

^ This.

It's not good to have the powers that be throwing a hissy fit and ignore the will of the electorate just because they don't like how they voted.

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Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition?

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For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.

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It's quite amazing how many people I know are planning to go on holiday in Greece in the near future.

Country in ruin or not, Greece is still amazing for we Brits abroad.

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He punches like a woman as well.

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Is it morning in Greece already?

It's nearly midnight Saturday into Sunday.

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The Greeks are screwed either way. I feel sorry for them, no population deserves this.

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I didn't think they'd come that close before seeing these exits, but i'm thinking Syriza have won... Greece are screwed either way.

Anyway, here comes the double-dip.