Greece 2012

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Essentially, Greece has some pretty strict time limits for coalition negotiations that could lead to a very intense nine/ten days, and if ND (assuming they're the largest party, o/c) can't manage to form a government in 72 hours, then the parties that have the second and third most seats suddenly become much more important (and there's like six different parties those could be).

Thank God, if there's anything Greece doesn't need it's to become another Belgium. I wish more countries had this rule. Allowing coalition negociations for months is not good for anyone.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The more I look at it the more I think the best thing would be a new election which results in SYRIZA as the largest party and hopefully able to form government with ANEL and DIMAR. Then finally they will most likely be kicked out of the EMU hopefully force the EU to take a different direction, establish EuroBond and real economic solidarity between countries, which quite franly is what both Greece and the EU needs. 

Corrected.

Ah yes I'm sure you might be right that a single protest election in Greece might get the European establishment revaluate everything they have done to handle the crisis so far and make a U-turn.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Swedish television now reporting that Venizelos is saying it's official, there will be new elections.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that.  

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

You really think the politically dominant European right is going to simply roll-over and surrender on it's core positions just because a new radical government in a country that at the moment is completly dependent on their good will, is threatining to shoot itself? Please Antonio you are much smarter than that. 

And no, your new moderate President that won by a slim margin is not going to make himself immediatly unpopular by demanding French tax-payers pay Greek loans. He is much smarter than that.   

Considering their "core positions" are completely unrealistic and that their application has directly resulted into the mess we are currently in, I want to believe that, at some point, right-wing leaders will show some pragmatism and admit that their current policies have utterly failed. Being faced by a ballsy government who tells you "now either you help me or may God have mercy of our souls" can be a huge incentive to that. If they are that smart, this is what they should do.

We all want to believe our political opponents will see the light one day and change their wicked ways. Personally I wouldn't want to stake a country on that belief though.

But we will see, Tsipras will be Prime Minister soon enough.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The only solution is to beat Merkel next year. That's the only real solution. But Greece (and Spain) can't wait until 2013 =S

One of the major reasons Merkel's governemt is unpopular is because German tax-payers are tired of having to bail-out Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and all other Euro-countries that can't pay their own debts. So thinking the SDP will sweep her out of power just to start handing out bail-outs for free without any demands for a tougher Greek budget is just silly. 

German politicians will serve German intrests. Just like Greek politicians will serve Greek intrests. (In their own strange ways) The leader on top really does a lot less difference than some people seem to realise.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Funny, how they put it. I guess, what they mean by 10 minutes is several years for negotiating a new European treaty and then ratifying it by every single of the 27 or 28 states that form EU. Achieving, in the process, a radical leap towards full integration: so radical, in fact, that it is comparable to all that has been done over decades during the entire process of European integration.

The central bank part can be done in 10 minutes.

You fail to understand European Law 101. The EU is not the US federal government, and does not have surpreme legislative power over its member states. According to Article 5 of the Treaty on the European Union it can only create legislation within areas where it has been granted power by the national governments in a treaty. That's for example why the Union can't raise its own taxes. 


So no it couldn't be done in 10 minutes, because the current EU treaty does not allow the Union the power to create a central bank. You would need  to pass a  new treaty for it to be possible. And as pointed out by ag, it takes a few years at best, a decade if it's such controversial ideas as a European central bank.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Of course this my general problem with modern Social Democracy. People who screw things up for themself are always victims and should never ever have to fix their problems by them selves, while people who have done everything right are horrible people if they don't do everything to help the people who screwed up. It's worthless as a domestic social policy and just as worthless when you try to apply on international relations.

The attitude on this site that Merkel and the IMF are horible people because they expect Greece and other nations they pour money into to get their bloody act together irks me. Good on people to remind me why I'm most certainly a right-winger.

Greece needs to get people to start paying their taxes, end of story. It's actually one of the reasons I think SYRIZA winning would be preferable. ND is a failed party, and obviously they're not gonna make wealthy Greek tax-evaders pay their taxes. SYRIZA could maybe. 

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

Well we would need to discuss some details, like where the whips would be made? Shall we have Greece make them for themselves, or should Northern Europe be allowed to sell them to get back a little money? Perhaps a neutral place like Switzerland would be best.

And perhaps more importantly, do you have any...let's say...."workout plan" in mind that could be sent with the whips? Need to make sure everyone knows how to best use them.

What about this work-out plan?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Lyndon, is there a chance of a left-wing coalition between SYRIZA and PASOK if SYRIZA tops the polls, or is the only realistic alternatives with DIMAR and/or ANEL? And how well would SYRIZA and ANEL actually get along?

And while I'm asking questions anyway, why does KKE use Latin letters for their short from?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Surley this  must mean the end to Golden Dawn's time in parliament? No party can have a sitting MP do this on live TV right before an election and survive, not even in the special circumstances of this Greek election.

It's bad when you make me feel sympathetic to a communist. Especially when the communist is apperently a left-wing Michelle Bachmann. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why doesn't PASOK just forma  coalition with SYRIZA?

They probably will if SYRIZA manages to win. But that is looking more and more unlikely.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SYRIZA would gain nothing from being part of a coalition they're not leading. It's not going to happen.

In the end PASOK will probably feel forced to join ND, but they're aware that doing so will mean confirming SYRIZA as the major centre-left party in the country for decades to come, and if things go bad for the coalition might also mean death for the entire party. So naturally they're at least going to try to get as many as possible to dip their hands in the blood.    

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Not very inspired as an analogy, I know.

... really you couldn't think of a better analogy? Really, nothing at all?

Firstly it's not like Germany hasn't already spent billions of euros trying to save failing European economies, thereby in difference to your analogy definatley using its bucket. But emptying the boat is rather pointless if there is still a bloody HOLE in it. It's quite reasonable to demand the guy responsible for the accident to try to fix it.

I'm guessing the stupidity of sailing in the middle of dark night is representing the stupidity of the idea of the Euro.