Greece 2012

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Prediction:
ND 109 seats
PASOK 43 seats
SYRIZA 30 seats
ANEL 28 seats
KKE 27 seats
DIMAR 23 seats
XA 15 seats
LAOS 10 seats
Greens 9 seats
DISY 6 seats

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And some outfit called Koinoniki Symfonia that polled just under 1% nationally topped the poll in the small dodecanese island municipality of Astypalaia.

Erm, no they didn't -- it seems they got only 1 vote there: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map?newsfeed=true

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So, it seems logical to just keep using this thread for the June election, since it's Greece 2012?

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Ive noticed the North American press is quite biased in their coverage European elections.

It sucks, but at least they're biased for the good guys...

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Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...

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Averaging out the three extant polls for a June election, from MARC on May 10, KAPA RESEARCH on May 12, and METRON ANALYSIS on May 12, we get:

Vote:
SYRIZA 24.6%
ND 20.0%
PASOK 13.1%
ANEL 9.7%
KKE 6.3%
XA 5.4%
DIMAR 5.1%
Greens 2.2%
LAOS 2.1%
DX 1.8%
DISY 1.7%
DRASI 1.5%
Other 6.5%

Seats:
SYRIZA 123 (+71)
ND 59 (-49)
PASOK 39 (-2)
ANEL 29 (-4)
KKE 19 (-7)
XA 16 (-5)
DIMAR 15 (-4)

After seeing its vote decline by 15% but nevertheless gaining 17 seats in the 6 May election, ND gains 1 percentage point somehow but nevertheless loses 49 seats. Oh you 50-seat bonus...

Actually Syriza will not get the 50 seat bonus unless they manage to merge their coalition into one party.  They are legally a coalition, and thus inelgible, so even if they placed first in the popular vote and ND second, ND would get the 50 seat bonus (assuming, again, that they are still a coalition).  I would that would be enough to spark major riots.

If that's so, ND would get 109 seats (+1), SYRIZA would get 73 (+21), and the others would be unchanged.

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Christine Lagarde says that it is payback time for Greece

CHRISTINE Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that she had more sympathy for children in Africa than austerity-hit Greeks, who could help themselves by paying their taxes.

In an interview with The Guardian, the managing director of the IMF said that she was not worried by the economic and social impact of austerity on the Mediterranean country.

"No, I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens," Ms Lagarde told the British newspaper.

"Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax."

Ms Lagarde went on to say that she thought "equally" about Greeks who were deprived of public services and of Greek citizens who did not pay their tax.

"I think they should also help themselves collectively," she said. Asked how, she replied: "By all paying their tax".

Asked by The Guardian if she was essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe that they had had a nice time and that it was now payback time, she responded: "That's right".

Ms Lagarde reiterated that the IMF had no intention of softening the austerity demands to which Greece agreed in return for a multi-billion euro bailout.

Opinion polls suggest that Syriza, a leftist, anti-austerity party that came came second in Greece's May 6 election, could to win the vote at a new election on June 17. There are fears that if Greece turns its back on the austerity program, it could be forced out of the eurozone, triggering a Europe-wide crisis.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/christine-lagarde-says-that-it-is-payback-time-for-greece/story-fnawdwo8-1226367715480

Well, yes. When you receive something, you should pay it back. When it is lump sums of money, you should pay it back with interest.

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Lyndon, is there a chance of a left-wing coalition between SYRIZA and PASOK if SYRIZA tops the polls, or is the only realistic alternatives with DIMAR and/or ANEL? And how well would SYRIZA and ANEL actually get along?

And while I'm asking questions anyway, why does KKE use Latin letters for their short from?

If SYRIZA comes first then that's probably what's going to happen (SYRIZA-PASOK-DIMAR) because as sure as hell nobody is anywhere close to getting a majority.
Forget about ANEL, they are a bunch of right-wing cranks. Tsipras might occasionally talk favorably about them but he knows very well that if he accepts them in a coalition he will become a joke.

And those are greek letters dude. They stand for "Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας" (Communist Party of Greece).

Would SYRIZA really accept PASOK into the government? There seemed to be no chance of that last time around, and it doesn't seem like circumstances have changed much.

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Since there won't be any more public polls and it's doubtful anything will really change the state of the race, here are my predictions -- they come largely from averages, with some weighting. I actually put a quite a great deal of thought into this. Note that, when you take away the 50-seat bonus, ND/DISY only beat SYRIZA 71-70 -- meaning that, even though most thought it was pointless, the alliance with DISY, with these results, would have been the decisive moment of the campaign.

ND/DISY 121 (+13)
SYRIZA 70 (+18)
PASOK 37 (-4)
ANEL 19 (-14)
DIMAR 17 (-2)
KKE 14 (-12)
XA 13 (-8)
DX/DRASI-FS 9 (+9)

Note that a grand pro-austerity coalition, ND/PASOK/DISY/DX/DRASI-FS, would have 167 seats and therefore a rather comfortable majority. The Grexit...is averted. However, if we shift a single seat from ND to SYRIZA...SYRIZA/DIMAR would have only 138 seats, and they would have to recruit either KKE (doubtful), or more likely, ANEL for a grand anti-austerity coalition...I'm not sure to what extent SYRIZA/ANEL/DIMAR would really work though.