Greece 2012

[ingemann]

I agree with Swedish Cheese, but there are also another aspect people forget:.
Greece is the Euro country which has behaved in the worst possible (and directly criminal) way, they have shown no interest in any kind of reforms, the medicin has had to be forced down their throat, and they have fought every step of way to not having to reform anything. If they are let off the hook it's a insult to Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, who have tried seriously to deal with crisis. And worst of all it would open up for other countries doing the same as Greece.
That's the political reaction, in all likelyhood we would also see rising prices for bonds for all Euro countries, because the market would also see that.
As such it's less bad for the rest of the Eurozone if Greece left, it will also serve as a ugly object lection for other members in the crisis. This doesn't mean I don't feel bad for the Greek people, but I see little alternative for EU than to play hardball against Greece.
In the long term I also think it's best for Greece that EU doesn't back down, the disaster which will hit them, will force their politicians to become responsable.  

[ingemann]

Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition?

Yes.

Has this been a political issue in Greece before all the troubles started?

Otherwise it's just seems a bit too contrived. "Ah, well, we've got major economic problems now and desperately need some money. Luckily, there was this war 70 years ago we never got any reparations for, so maybe we'll go with this one."

I thought Germany gave Greece a lump sum of money in 1960 or thereabouts.

No clue. We managed to f**k it up so big that I lost track of all the reparations we had to pay.

A funny fact, with all the attack by CDU on SSW in Schleswig-Holstein, Denmark gave up any monetary claim against Germany with the Bonn-Copenhagen Declaration in 1955, the same treaty which CDU in Kiel now show themself very hostile to.

[ingemann]

I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?

Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.

If anything it's Germany that's making itself lose some popularity abroad.

Maybe down south, but up here, I haven't meet anybody with much sympathy for the Greeks, and no it's not "those lazy South European" kind of thing, there are significant sympathy for the Iberians. And before you ask most people I deal with are working class and lower middle class.
Most people understand why the Germans don't want to send money to the bottomless hole which is Greece, even the people who disagree with the austerity policies.

[ingemann]

I was just listening to the BBC world news program that NPR has sometimes and there was someone speaking for SYRIZA. He was saying that by threating to default within the Euro  unless their demands were met they were fighting for the 99% of Europeans and that the whole European project couldn't possibly survive without Greece. When the guy saying that the people of Europe were thanking Greece for theatening to default I started yelling at my radio.

Do the Greeks really believe that they are winning friends right now?

Right now? They are, actually. Not a majority, obviously.

If anything it's Germany that's making itself lose some popularity abroad.

Maybe down south, but up here, I haven't meet anybody with much sympathy for the Greeks, and no it's not "those lazy South European" kind of thing, there are significant sympathy for the Iberians. And before you ask most people I deal with are working class and lower middle class.
Most people understand why the Germans don't want to send money to the bottomless hole which is Greece, even the people who disagree with the austerity policies.

What is happening to Greece is quantitatively, not qualitatively different to what is happening in other South European countries.

I disagree, the reason for the trouble in the different country are quite distinct. If you look at Spain and Portugal, it's too large extent the banks, which has pulled the economy into a recession, while in Greece it's the state. which has pulled the banks down with them. The Greek state has shown a degree of mismanagement which would be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The Greek state has shown it unwilling to collect taxes, something which isn't similar in Spain nor Portugal, which both collect their taxes. Greece also have a degree of clientism almost unheard off in EU15. I find it completely unfair and insulting to the Spaniards and Portugeese to compare their states with Greece.
Why do I not compare Italy with Greece, because Italy have many of the same problems, but at the same time Italy do have the benefit of having a functioning industry and export sector, and the degree of clientism and tax evasion in Italy is significant lower.

[ingemann]

Of course, I don't mean all southern countries have the same strural problems Greece has. But at this point, structural issues internal to countries don't matter anymore. Spain is roughly in the situation Greece was one or two years ago, and Italy might be in the situation Greece was two or three years ago. The problem here does not lie in the inefficiency of the Greek State (even though this is also a problem which ought to be solved, it is not the core issue), it lies in the fact that we have a common currency which isn't backed by a common borrowing system, something which just isn't viable. It lies in the unwillingness of Germany and other "virtuous" countries to "pay for" other countries (even though, at the end of the day, the effects would be positive for these countries as well). This system just cannot work. Therefore, the solutions are two : either the Eurozone disbands, or we finally create these goddamned EuroBonds.

And as a side note, I find it extremely unfair to blame the entire Greek people for the corruption and general inefficiency of their institutions, and making it "pay the price for it".

It has nothing to do with virtuous, but everything with being able to explain their voters why they need to support the other countries. It would be a death of kiss for any government which send a fortune to Greece, only for the national media bringing the news that the the Greeks continued their existing dysfunctional behaviour.
In fact I'm going to be pensioned when I'm between 70-72, I pay a marginal tax of 40% (and I'm working class), it's really hard for any government to explain to my kind of people, that we have to pay to Greeks among whom 6 out of 10 don't pay income tax, who is able to go on pension at 55 (50 for women), while at the same time we're pushing internal austerity. It's not a popular issue among the electorate, which is the most important reason the northern countries has pushed austerity on the southern countries, they needed a internal excuse to help. Or at least it were at first, the Greek continued abyssal behaviour, have spiraled it all out of control to the point where we are now, where bailing the Greeks out would be political suicide for Merkel or any other German government.

[ingemann]

Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)

Yes for the Greeks to hang themselves is the best way to spite Merkel.

[ingemann]

Let's hope for a SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR coalition.  SYRIZA-DIMAR seems unlikely at this point, but either way, it be the perfect middle finger to Merkel (let's hope Hollande sides with Greece if this government is the case.)

Yes for the Greeks to hang themselves is the best way to spite Merkel.

I don't want to intervene in this debate... but I'll hang my colours to the mast with this. As much as telling Merkie to go f- herself would be fun, the results would be terrible for Greece and for Europe as a whole.

If I were Greek, I'd probably hold my nose and vote ND at this point. They're a terrible party, but I'm not one to join on Tsipras' bandwagon. That guy is a tool and/or moron.

I agree, and in fact there may be a bonus, ND may discredit itself to the same point as PASOK did, which mean both ND and PASOK get to clean up after themself, and at the same time the Greeks get rid of these two parties as the only major forces in Greek politic. 

[ingemann]

Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

[ingemann]

Did she hurt the poor Greeks emotions, what a terrible person. I find it refreshing that she say that everybody, who have had to deal with this mess thinks. We have wasted five year which could have been used a lot better on eternal negotiation, to say nothing about the enormous capital transfer. I doubt many people have much patience with the Greeks right now, she justsaid it openly, while everyone else bite it in them.

Yes, let us make blanket generalizations about all the Greeks as lazy, disgusting tax evaders who deserve to be dealt blows through the economic justice system. The austerity measures are how they will pay for their numerous sins. If the troika courts find that these measures won't be enough, let us give the hellenic peoples whips to lash themselves so that they can repent further.

6 out of 10 Greeks do not pay income tax
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-12-31/world/greece.taxes_1_income-taxes-greek-press-tax-evasion?_s=PM:WORLD

27,5% of the economy are in the so-called shadolw economy
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki


In tax fines Greece has an embezzle rate of 40% (with further 40% simply being written off)
http://digitaljournal.com/article/316094

This was not a few bad apples, this is a general problem, and unless they take responsibility for the action of a major part of their population, the problem won't go away, no matter how much other pay for their irresponsibility. Greece aren't the first country which has problems with using more money than they got in, my own country had the same problem in the 80ties, and the result was that our tax rate was raised from 40% to 50%, we put high taxes on foreign products we didn't produce ourself (which is why a car in Denmark cost 300% of a car in most other countries) plus on gasolin to improve the BOP. The results was ugly, but as result Denmark are one of Europe richest countries today, a netto-exporter with a strong valuta. If we choosed to do nothing, the Danish valuta would have been a complete joke today and our living standards lower.

My biggest problem with Greece is that I don't hear a alternative to austerity, what the Greeks suggest are to keep things as they are. That's unacceptable and people can whine just as much about  all us evil foreigners seeing the Greeks as lazy, corrupt and dishonest, it doesn't change the fact that Greece need to change, and if they doesn't other countries will find continued financial support to Greece completely unacceptable.

[ingemann]

Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transfered from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddely couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.

[ingemann]

Well, I know It's a feeble comparision, but people who doesn't pay taxes here would be extremely glad if They'd be able to do It. And I was only able to do It after I stopped doing things as a professional and started being juridically an enterprise. I would also like to remember that the stimulus for overdebt/overcomsumption on southern UE was the core of northern UE countries policies. Pretty hypocritical to blame them now.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. The money transferred from the richer parts of Europe, wasn't loans, but mostly free support to development of infrastructure and agricultural support. The debt the Greek has build up here, is a result of them being member of the Euro, which meant that they could sell low interest bonds. It wouldn't have been such a big problem, if they hadn't hidden the size of their debt, by lying about the degree of tax evasion and money lost to corruption, until the point there they couldn't hide it anymore (when the crisis began and the American bank which had helped them conning the rest of EU, suddenly couldn't/wouldn't help them with the con anymore). This is the primary reason, that few net contributor to EU are willing to let the Greeks off the hook.

If that was the problem, It would struck only on them, not on the whole UE periphery. I must agree It made things worse, but It seems ingenuity to believe the central UE members and institutions weren't just seen It and were caught by surprise. In the other side of the ocean, a nobody whose main work is with built cultural heritage was aware they did tricks, I suppose, even the exact tricks weren't publicly known, the responsible staff at Brussels, Berlin or whateverwhere should had tracked and be prepared for It, if they were really responsible.
The money directly transferred wasn't the main issue here, but how things were done. I'm not aware of Danemark's specific case, but the rule was to export to the peripheral countries and be very glad they were avid consumers, relying the core of their economy on monetarist policies, father than building up more relyable economic bases.
Than, the structural problem of European consensus came down, hit one by one and was specially mean on economies floating in the air, as monetarist recipes prescribe. Than everyone comes (including those who were very fine with the previous situation, thanks) and points their fingers: "the problem was that you were a mean kid! It's all your fault!".
To me, this is obvious scapegoating.

I don't follow the logic. What precisely do you want people to do, keep sending money to Greece? We can talk as much as we want about scapegoating and it being everybody else but the Greeks fault that they evaded tax, stole and in general behaved deeply irresponsable, it doesn't change the fact that there are two possible scenarios. Greece keep on going as they have done in decades or they change. The other Euro countries with Germany in charge has told them that the former is unacceptable. That's not scapegoating that's a intervention.

[ingemann]

Ingemann, the logic is that, apart from creative financial management, they did what they were expected to do. Everybody is closing the eyes to this and keeps only remembering their ways as smart-asses. Their tricks May be associated with, but were clearly not the central cause, and using that as the main rhetorical point for intervention is mean. It would have happend anyway, with or without evasion. And if the main issues don't come to the center of the debate, you folks will be faded to not getting out of this mess.

I fail to see how its anybody but the Greeks fault that they cheated, yes most expected some fraud in Greece, but no one had a idea of the scale, and the major problem was as long as it wasn't or couldn't be proved, no one was going to make accusations. When we now have the knowledge of the scale and but also hard proffs, no one is going to send more money, before they are sure that they aren't wasted.