Greece 2012

[Zuza]

"Renewing Independent Left, Renewing Right, Renewing Pasok, Renewing New Democracy, No to War, Party of Action, I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, Save Lives, Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece" (perennial candidate)

Joke candidate?

[Zuza]

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

And yet another example: Brazil since 1990 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Brazil#Election_results_1982-2010).

[Zuza]

Didnt know about Syiza not getting the bonus. They simpy have to unite, otherwise its (even more)ridiculous.

It probably will be very hard to unite all 13 (according to Wikipedia) parties, from social democrats to maoists and trotskyists, into one in such a short time...

Maybe Synaspismos will try to run independently?

[Zuza]

PASOK has no reason to exist now that SYRIZA is the "big" leftist" party, since SYRIZA is to the left of PASOK.  

Isn't SYRIZA too left for ex-PASOK voters? I suppose most of them in future will vote for PASOK or DIMAR rather than SYRIZA.

[Zuza]

That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

So there'd basicly be two possibilities?

Pure anti-austerity: SYRIZA+ANEL+DIMAR (169 seats)

Pure left-wing: SYRIZA+PASOK+DIMAR (175 seats)

In theory (and I know its only in theory) there would also be pure left of center option: SYRIZA + DIMAR + KKE = 161. The Communists would be in a dilemma, since there would actually be a majority for creating a Socialist society (of some sorts). If they kept up their "no responsibility for us" act they would have some explaining to do to their voters.

I doubt that SYRIZA and especially DIMAR considered as socialist parties in KKE eyes (and probably in eyes of most KKE voters?). Even stalinists and trotskyists hate each other, not to mention the non-Marxist socialists.

[Zuza]

For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

[Zuza]

For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.

I understand, I asked about how likely that both ND and PASOK will agree to form coalition. Before 6 May ND rejected such possibility. What now say ND and PASOK leaders?

[Zuza]

I hope ND/PASOK can win enough for a majority...

I hope SYRIZA/DIMAR can win enough for a majority.  

That won't matter as DIMAR don't want to work with SYRIZA.

The most likely outcome should SYRIZA be the largest party is yet another deadlock actually (even if the KKE finally decide to drop their wearing sectarianism).

There is also some chance of SYRIZA+ANEL coalition.