Greece 2012

[Velasco]

Legarde seems to be a kind hearted woman, indeed. I can´t see the Greek issue as a simple question of payback. You can say that Greece is a failed state, complain about  people who don´t pay their taxes and think that they need reforms. This could be true under a certain point of view and in that country many things really don´t work, but I don´t think that tighten the rope on a hanged person´s neck would help. One can wonder about the efficiency of the measures adopted and about the fact that Greece is paying interests over interests (isn´t it usury?). The money is lost but who is more guilty, the debtor or the moneylender? In the other hand I wonder about what is doing IMF actually to alleviate the situation in countries like Mali. Maybe fairer trade laws or some other measures would help?

The last polls show ND slightly ahead over Syriza. I don´t know if there are seat-projections aviable but I guess that a ND-PASOK majority is possible with the first over the 20% of share, given the 50-seats bonus. In the other hand I don´t trust Greek polls very much.  

[Velasco]

From bailout country to bailout country: good luck, Greece. If you are religious, guys, just pray: God save us from our incompetent firemen. If you are agnostic like me just cross your fingers. I read yesterday in times like these which has been deemed radical now seems a no-nonsense approach. Even Samaras talks about a renegotiation.

[Velasco]

She noted that the ND-PASOK coalition could not work again
because it had been 'battered' by the people and that the
country could not be governed by 41 percent of the electorate
with 59 percent opposed.

Thats interesting, because PASOK had no problem governing with 43% of the electorate in 2009

Not really a good comparison; PASOK and ND polled together almost 80% and 43% today.

[Velasco]

ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.

[Velasco]

ND was in the Papademos government if I am not wrong.

But not the Papandreau one.  

Yes but what do you mean saying this? The fact is that there's still a majority against the memorandum and this is the reason why ND and PASOK are below their former numbers.

[Velasco]

What I'm saying, and what Jaichind is saying, is that PASOK claims that a government whose parties got 41% between them wouldn't have democratic legitimacy, yet in 2009, they had no problem forming a government whose only party got 43%.  I didn't realize that there's a magic number between 41 and 43 that they think gives democratic legitimacy. 

Because the election that PASOK won was a "normal" one,  before the memorandum. This time makes sense what PASOK spokeswoman is saying.

Syriza is ahead in Samos, a KKE stronghold.

[Velasco]

 

An election is an election. It isn't invalid just because the issues in one are different from the issues in another.

Another election is not likely to produce any more satisfactory result than this one, as long as ND and SYRIZA are at loggerheads.

Besides, what PASOK is asking for is basically that all the non-KKE/Golden Dawn parties form an unpopular coalition, forcing anyone who is against the government to vote KKE or Golden Dawn. This is a recipie for Golden Dawn's emergence as a big national party, the worst possible scenario. It is absolustely craven for PASOK to puts is own party interest ahead to risk this. They are making Samaras into Bruning and themselves into the hapless German SPD.

I didn't say that the election is invalid. Your argumentation makes sense but a "national unity" government also does. Brüning's government hadn't parliamentary support; he was appointed by Hindenburg and made laws by decree.

[Velasco]

Media coverage sucks. I'll extract one paragraph from NYT.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/europe/greek-elections.html?ref=world

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False statement: ND is not the most pro-Europe party in Greece; just remember that Samaras rejected the bailout when he was in the opposition. As all the Greek right-wing ND is staunchly nationalist. It's important to remark what I put in bold letters.

The Guardian another progressive-liberal media usually depicts Syriza as "far-left" and "anti-bailout" which is not correct. It´s more accurate if you say "anti-memorandum", i.e., opposed to the harsh austerity measures attached to the bailout.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/18/greek-election-coalition-government

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If we identify Pro-Europe with Pro-Bailout, surely Evangelos Venizelos is the most europeist leader in Greece. Anyways Venizelos also believes that a renegotation is indispensable.

[Velasco]

  That is the way things ought to be, when you do something stupid, the market will punish you and then you better be with the picture. 

The markets punish you even if you are an obedient pupil. See Spain.

ND-PASOK-Dimar seems to be the less worse in the present circumstances.

[Velasco]

Are you talking seriously, Dereich? Do you want Greece expelled and with this odd XA-KKE coalition in office? There is too much to say about Spanish regions (or "autonomies") but your statement is essentially false. They are a part of the problem, of course, but they have only a little share. The big mess is in the banks and in the private debt, all consequencies of the real estate bubble.

[Velasco]

As for Spain, I should have been more clear. The regions are a problem in the deficit battles, not in the financial troubles. I sort of look at it as two different but interconnected malaises: one having to do with the financial system, the other a confidence problem.  I've probably also been overestimating the impact of the regions on the deficit/uncertainty thing because I've been hearing a lot about it lately from a Catalan friend of mine.

The biggest share of the deficit is in the Spanish state not in the regions. Spain has still a relatively low deficit if you comapare it with other countries in Europe. Private debt is even bigger than public deficit. In Spain the debate about the budget cuts in the regions is polluted. The problem is real but there has been a lot of demagogy because of the battle between nationalism (central Spain vs. peripheric regions) and the political battles between PP and PSOE. Esperanza Aguirre, the conservative PM of Madrid region, showed off her economic management as an example of virtue. Now we know that Madrid has a deficit wich was unrevealed, just like in Greece but in a much lower scale, of course.

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It would be interesting if you see the bullfight behind the barrier, as we say in Spain. Berlusconi and these Greek Nazis aren't funny actually.