NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama easily cruises over all Republicans, Johnson strong as Lib
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  NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama easily cruises over all Republicans, Johnson strong as Lib
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Author Topic: NM: Public Policy Polling: Obama easily cruises over all Republicans, Johnson strong as Lib  (Read 4031 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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« on: December 16, 2011, 05:22:14 PM »

New Poll: New Mexico President by Public Policy Polling on 2011-12-13

Summary: D: 56%, R: 39%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Obama 51, Paul 38
Obama 53, Romney 38
Obama 56, Gingrich 39
Obama 56, Bachmann 36
Obama 56, Perry 35

Obama 45, Gingrich 28, Johnson 20
Obama 44, Romney 27, Johnson 23
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2011, 05:24:22 PM »

Looks like Johnson takes about evenly from both parties, but Obama starts from a higher base leading to an easy win for the Dems.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2011, 05:31:47 PM »

Surprisingly good results for the President. I would have expected a 6-8% victory.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2011, 05:32:10 PM »

Nice polling for Johnson, though it would surely go down as election day approaches.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2011, 05:43:59 PM »

New Mexico = Strong D.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2011, 05:49:40 PM »

Dont know why some still call NM a swing state. Demographics have moved it to at least a lean D.

I thought that maybe Johnson might pull more from Obama's youth base with his promises to legalize pot, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2011, 06:19:43 PM »

Gary Johnson takes fewer votes from Barack Obama than from the Republicans in New Mexico and takes about half the "undecided" respondents.  Of course I would like to see this poll for other states.

President Obama would lose one of the keys of the Lichtmann test (absence of a third-Party challenge), but Johnson would likely hurt Republicans more.  Maybe he would pick off a few electoral votes.     
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2011, 07:04:48 PM »

Dont know why some still call NM a swing state. Demographics have moved it to at least a lean D.

Agree that it's lean D but I wouldn't pull it out of the swing state category.  Susana Martinez is a thoroughly conservative governor and is relatively popular.  If the GOP can put forward a candidate that is rational on immigration reform, NM is in play.  If that and a Hispanic on the ticket, it's probably slight R.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2011, 08:35:44 PM »

Dont know why some still call NM a swing state. Demographics have moved it to at least a lean D.

I thought that maybe Johnson might pull more from Obama's youth base with his promises to legalize pot, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

Legalization of pot matters far less than does the alleviation of economic distress. I'm not sure that young adults are exactly pro-drug anyway.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2011, 09:27:31 PM »

Dont know why some still call NM a swing state. Demographics have moved it to at least a lean D.

Well we'd have to see an election where the Democrat loses to see which states really are out of play.

Though yea, lean D.
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memphis
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2011, 09:33:35 PM »

The GOP hasn't done much to attract the Hispanic vote. It's going to screw them nationwide, but it's magnified, of course, in NM. And the GOP is well aware of this now. They'll obfuscate and pander and do their best not to lose elections, but they can see the writing on the wall. They're merely taking the Ken Lay route. Faced with political annhilaition, they're taking all the money on the way out. The GOP is truly the party of Enron.
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The_Texas_Libertarian
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2011, 09:34:28 PM »

If you are Hispanic, press 1.  If white, press 2.  
If other, press 3.
1.  Hispanic - 35%
2.  White - 55%
3.  Other - 10%

2008 Exit Polls
Hispanic - 41%
White - 50%
Other - 8%

That is not good for the GOP, having an even smaller percentage of the Hispanic electorate than 2008 and the GOP is still significantly behind.

Also Obama receives 63%-to-68% of the Hispanic vote depending on the opponent

Obama - 68%
Gingrich - 29%
Undecided - 4%

Obama - 63%
Paul - 26%
Undecided - 11%

Obama - 64%
Romney - 26%
Undecided - 11%

2008 Hispanic Vote
Obama - 69%
McCain - 30%
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2011, 10:05:28 PM »

A Republican can only win New Mexico on a presidential level if they have a liberal or moderate stance on immigration, which none of the candidates running seem to have or are willing to say they have.  Definitely leaning D.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2011, 10:23:27 PM »

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2011, 11:27:31 PM »

Dont know why some still call NM a swing state. Demographics have moved it to at least a lean D.

Agree that it's lean D but I wouldn't pull it out of the swing state category.  Susana Martinez is a thoroughly conservative governor and is relatively popular.  If the GOP can put forward a candidate that is rational on immigration reform, NM is in play.  If that and a Hispanic on the ticket, it's probably slight R.
The only Hispanic that will help in NM is Martinez. Someone like Rubio wont help in the southwest and could actually hurt. Cubans and Mexican Americans have little in common and Rubio padding his family's past to make them appear to be political refugees (and therefore better than economic refugees like most Hispanic immigrants) wont help
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2011, 11:45:43 PM »

Looks like Johnson takes about evenly from both parties, but Obama starts from a higher base leading to an easy win for the Dems.

Fall 2010
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126126.msg2684632#msg2684632
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redcommander
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2011, 12:16:42 AM »

If Martinez is on the VP spot the state moves to at least Toss Up because she is personally popular. BTW Obama's support with Hispanics is still down compared to 2008 in the state. The problem is Republican support is down as well below its already anemic numbers from 2008.
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King
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2011, 01:54:35 AM »

NM, more than any state in the union responds to likability. GOP has a huge deficit in that regard right now.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2011, 03:42:48 PM »

One of my big beefs with PPP's ethnicity questions is that is forces a choice between white and hispanic.  Not always an easy choice for New Mexicans, who are often very much both.  Probably a fair bit of noise in there.

Rubio could move the needle here but not a ton.
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bgwah
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2011, 07:27:09 PM »

Impressive numbers for Johnson! They would probably drop significantly come election day, but I could see him doing relatively well in the West, particularly if Romney isn't the Republican.
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memphis
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2011, 09:41:53 PM »

Impressive numbers for Johnson! They would probably drop significantly come election day, but I could see him doing relatively well in the West, particularly if Romney isn't the Republican.
It's his home state. Everybody gets a boost in their home state.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #21 on: December 18, 2011, 11:38:52 AM »

Impressive numbers for Johnson! They would probably drop significantly come election day, but I could see him doing relatively well in the West, particularly if Romney isn't the Republican.
It's his home state. Everybody gets a boost in their home state.

And he's well liked/remembered here.  I don't particularly think he's viable as indy/LP, but in these hypos I'd vote for him.
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