SD-Nielson Brothers Polling: Obama has no chance in South Dakota

[Tender Branson]

51% Gingrich
31% Obama
10% neither
  8% Undecided

48% Romney
29% Obama
13% neither
  9% Undecided

http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/event/article/id/60056/group/homepage/

[pbrower2a]

I don't know who these fellows are. The name sounds much like NielsEn (as in AC Nielsen, famed for surveys on viewership of TV programs).

Even if this firm undersampled Rapid City the message is clear; that President Obama lost South Dakota by 9% in 2008 was a miracle in itself.

[Oakvale]

This pollster seems a bit crummy based on the other thread, but I don't think Obama's going to win South Dakota barring a Paul nomination or something like that.

[memphis]

Doubt Obama will do that badly, but yeah, SD is irrelavant. Viva the Electoral College

[argentarius]

This pollster seems a bit crummy based on the other thread, but I don't think Obama's going to win South Dakota barring a Paul nomination or something like that.

Nice logic:
Obama being thrashed in South Dakota. Ron Paul is the most popular republican in South Dakota. Therefore, the only way Obama can win South Dakota is a Paul nomination. Unless you think this firm is totally wrong, and that a 6 point swing for Paul since 2008 proves that.

[Oakvale]

This pollster seems a bit crummy based on the other thread, but I don't think Obama's going to win South Dakota barring a Paul nomination or something like that.

Nice logic:
Obama being thrashed in South Dakota. Ron Paul is the most popular republican in South Dakota. Therefore, the only way Obama can win South Dakota is a Paul nomination. Unless you think this firm is totally wrong, and that a 6 point swing for Paul since 2008 proves that.

I've said time and time again that Paul is the most unelectable of the Republican candidates, and an even cursory examination of his political positions will show that. When a good 80% of the public disagree with you, you're not going to be winning a national election.

Paul current polls well because he's long been considered an irrelevancy and no-one bothers attacking him. In actual campaign he'd be demolished.

Meeker summed this up -

What folks need to understand about Paul's public perception is that he's the only one who's been contributing to it. No one - beyond a few swipes in the Republican presidential debate - bothers to attack him because he's irrelevant. So he's had free reign to define himself.

If under some twilight zone scenario he actually became the Republican nominee the Obama campaign and the entire Democratic establishment would spend nine months doing nothing but trying to destroy him. He'd quickly go from an anti-war, anti-establishment, smaller-government proponent to the nutcase who wants to make massive cuts to the defense budget, abolish social security and Medicare, repeal the Civil Rights Act, and who wouldn't've launched the operation to kill bin Laden.

I don't think Paul would win more than three or four states in a matchup against Obama (or any Democrat who isn't Lyndon LaRouche), and one of them would not be South Dakota.

...IMO.

[mondale84]

This poll is garbage...yeah Obama is down (even to Gingrich) but no way he's trailing by 20 points.

[Tender Branson]

Updated Obama vs. Gingrich map:

Lighter shades indicate a state that was not polled so far, but that will most likely be won by these parties.

Arizona is a pure tossup in the last poll, Indiana is grey because it is unpolled and not leaning in any direction.

Obama: 401 EV
Gingrich: 115 EV

[Tender Branson]

And here's the updated Obama vs. Romney map:

Obama: 297 EV
Romney: 209 EV

Tossup: 21 EV
Unpolled & no lean: 11 EV