IA PrimR: Insider Advantage: Paul holds 6-point advantage, Perry making a comeback ?

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Iowa President by Insider Advantage on 2011-12-18

Summary:

Paul:	24%
Romney:	18%
Perry:	16%
Gingrich:	13%
Bachmann:	10%
Other:	7%
Undecided:	12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Meeker]

Huntsman ahead of Santorum? Hmm

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This poll is garbage.

[ilikeverin]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

[TheGlobalizer]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

[tmthforu94]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

That's hilarious.

[Tender Branson]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

That's hilarious.

Yeah, their crosstab is pretty messed up.

If you only poll 4 people in the "other" column, you can only get 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 100%.

Not 15.3% or 7.4% ...

Unless you polled people's opinions provided by their mind, heart, penis etc. and include it in the crosstabs.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, their crosstab is pretty messed up.

If you only poll 4 people in the "other" column, you can only get 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 100%.

Not 15.3% or 7.4% ...

Unless you polled people's opinions provided by their mind, heart, penis etc. and include it in the crosstabs.

All pollsters weight the demographics, so you would actually not expect it to be 25%, 50%, etc.

[California8429]

Santorum at 3%? Uhm no. This poll is garbage as previously stated.

[memphis]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

That's hilarious.

It's Iowa. It may not be a sample. They may have just called up all 4 Hispanics who live there.

[Hash]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

That's hilarious.

It's Iowa. It may not be a sample. They may have just called up all 4 Hispanics who live there.

There are actually four Hispanic-majority precincts in Iowa. [/pedant]

[Badger]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

That's hilarious.

It's Iowa. It may not be a sample. They may have just called up all 4 Hispanics who live there.

There are actually four Hispanic-majority precincts in Iowa. [/pedant]

Cool info, Hash! Just curious: a) where did you find that info; and b) where are said precincts?

[Torie]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

That's hilarious.

It's Iowa. It may not be a sample. They may have just called up all 4 Hispanics who live there.

There are actually four Hispanic-majority precincts in Iowa. [/pedant]

Cool info, Hash! Just curious: a) where did you find that info; and b) where are said precincts?

There are about 10 precincts in Iowa with Hispanic percentages in excess of 20%, the highest percentage of which is 43% in beautiful downtown Marshalltown. I bet they work mostly at a meat packing plant there. Given the rather odd rural disbursement, a fair number must help out doing farm work. I did see a couple of Hispanics when I was last in Winterset, Iowa.

Green = Hispanics.

[Hash]

This poll is garbage.

I'm a bit confused by the "Other" sample of 4 giving, say, 5.4% to Santorum, or 10.6% to Bachmann.

Not to mention Bachmann getting 100% of the Hispanic pollees (4 of them).

That's hilarious.

It's Iowa. It may not be a sample. They may have just called up all 4 Hispanics who live there.

There are actually four Hispanic-majority precincts in Iowa. [/pedant]

Cool info, Hash! Just curious: a) where did you find that info; and b) where are said precincts?

a) NYT Census mapper stuff
b) Marshalltown (9505), Des Moines (48) and Sioux City (12 and 15). Some are rather Hispanic-plurality, of course, but #15 in Sioux City is 55% Hispanic.

I also found 6 black-majority precincts, including an 82% black one in Waterloo.

[Likely Voter]

I do think that Perry is making a comeback in IA. He and his super PAC have spent more than anyone else in IA so far. If you are a low information conservative voter who hasnt watched all the debates and isn't glued to Fox, then he can be very appealing in both his TV ads, personal appearances and free media as he goes around the state. And at this point no one is attacking him anymore since he was written off.