The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Michigan by-CD results.  Again, not all precincts are reporting so there may be resulting errors.

CD 1: Very Likely Santorum.  Santorum has a 687-vote lead in the whole counties that comprise CD 1.  Mason County is split between CD 1 and CD 2.  Mason County is not reporting more detailed results, but Santorum won the county as a whole, so it is very unlikely Romney will make up the difference there.

CD 2: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 8500 votes.

CD 3: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 1100 votes.

CD 4: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 2000 votes.

CD 5: Too Close To Call.  Romney has around a 900 vote lead outside of Tuscola County (with some uncertainty, mainly due to incomplete reporting of absentee votes by precinct in Saginaw Twp). Tuscola County is not reporting by precinct, and Santorum leads there, but it seems unlikely that Santorum will make up the difference there.  However, the AP shows Santorum with a 200-vote lead (thanks cinyc!), so I don't know what to make of it.

CD 6: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 4000 votes.

CD 7: Santorum.  Santorum wins by around 700 votes.

CD 8: Romney.

CD 9: Romney.

CD 10: Likely Romney.  Division of Sterling Heights City and Tuscola County is unclear, but it seems Romney won the district by at least 2000 votes.

CD 11: Romney.

CD 12: Romney.

CD 13: Likely Santorum. (apparently, according to the AP)

CD 14: Romney.

I didn't bother digging through Wayne County, but I find it very unlikely Santorum wins a district there.

That's a total of 8 CDs for Romney, and 6 for Santorum.  This results in a 17-13 split of delegates in favor of Romney.

I think you miscounted, that adds up to seven CDs for both Romney and Santorum.  Also, MI-13 could be explained simply by the fact that there are so few Republicans in the district that even a fairly small number of Democrats voting for Santorum could have actually affected the outcome here (I would argue it certainly made CD-12 closer than it should've been).  Another possibility is that there are so few Republicans here that the people who still are Republicans in the district are farther to the right than one would expect given the area (sort of like how I'd bet that the people in VT who are still active Republican primary voters are more conservative than one would expect given that it is VT, and that as a result while Romney will easily win the state, it won't be by as big a margin as people expect).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gingrich's Prospects: TL;DR

While there are many states where Gingrich staying in the race just straight up helps Romney, there are others where it's not so clear-cut, or he has a chance of hurting him.  Remember, not all Gingrich voters would immediately flock to Santorum if he dropped out.

If he can target his campaign to certain states and try to make himself as much of a non-factor as possible in the others, there may be a role for him yet.

This is a useful benchmark, but I don't think it captures the point of how Gingrich dropping out is the only hope for ABR.  If the status quo continues, with both Gingrich and Santorum in the race, then Romney wins the nomination relatively easily, even though he doesn't mathematically clinch it until June 5.

OTOH, if Gingrich drops out within the next few days, then it's at least possible that Santorum surges into a national polling lead over Romney, the media narrative becomes "This gives Santorum a big boost because he's no longer splitting the 'conservative vote'", Santorum wins the popular vote in Illinois even if he doesn't win the most delegates, and the collective wins from KS/AL/MS/IL/LA (new meme: Romney can now only win on islands) gives Santorum real momentum, potentially drawing in some votes in later states that might have otherwise gone to Romney.

I'm not saying that this would happen, but it's at least a possibility.  It's the only real hope for ABR, to change the narrative and shake up the race in a way that can't be captured in these static "who does Gingrich help or hit in such-and-such-a-state" analyses.

So if Gingrich really wants to stop Romney, I think he should suspend his campaign.  But maybe wait until Sunday night, after Puerto Rico votes, if he thinks there's any chance that being in the race prevents Romney from reaching 50%.  (But really, Romney probably reaches 50% there regardless, so I guess it doesn't matter.)

 

I think Adelson is continuing to fund Gingrich because he (Adelson) is a Romney supporter and is dangling Gingrich like a puppet on a string to split the ABM vote.  This is not to say that Gingrich was always on the take (certainly not in NH or even SC), but he probably is at this point.  Another possibility is that Gingrich's ego is such that he's convinced himself that his presence in the race is crucial to stopping Romney (would anyone really be surprised if this were the case?).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

That's disgusting...

It really is, whether it's Romney, Paul, Santorum, or Gingrich's campaign doing it.  One would hope that they'd have a little bit more respect for the will of the voters, but obviously they don't.  Romney should get his fair share of delegates in Nevada and Washington just like Santorum should in Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and especially Missouri (even if no where else, since he basically ran the board here).  This whole Republican primary season has been one big argument for abolishing caucuses and having every state distribute its delegates based either on the candidates percentage of the state-wide popular vote.  There are definitely problems with distributing delegates by congressional district, or worse still, winner-take-all.  However, the caucus' have consistently resulted in each of the remaining campaigns actively subverting the will of the voters.  It just seems so...undemocratic.