The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Minnesota Mike]

According to CNNPolitics.com, the delegate breakdown from Iowa are as follows - Romney, Santorum, and Paul each get 7 delegates while Gingrich and Perry get 2 apiece for a total of 25 pledged delegates plus there are 3 more unpledged.

Romney currently has 18 delegates (7 from Iowa, 11 unpledged).
Santorum currently has 11 delegates (7 from Iowa, 4 unpledged).

No delegates were selected last night. CNN and other media outlets are projecting the delegate distribution based off last nights results but the fact is no delegates will be selected until June and even then they will be unpledged. All that happened last night was a non binding straw poll of caucus goers and that delegates selected the people who will select the people who will pick the delegates.

[Minnesota Mike]

Today is the filing deadline in Illinois and it looks like Santorum and Gingrich will not have full slates of delegates.

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/politics-and-government/2012-01-05/santorum-backers-still-plan-file-slate-gingrich-camp-said-be

Looks like Romney and Paul are the only ones with a big league operation.

[Minnesota Mike]

With Beaufort County finally coming in, I'm feeling confident enough to call CD 1 for Romney, with the other 6 CD's, of course, for Gingrich.

Romney narrowly avoids getting shut out in SC, but Gingrich still makes off like a bandit, with 23 delegates to Romney's 2.  In fact, in the span of the last few hours, Gingrich has gone from having zero delegates to having the lead.

And to think I thought this thread would be coming to an early conclusion in a couple of weeks.  Looks like we're in for the long haul, folks.

Premature call  IMO. By my math CD 01 is within a few hundred votes one way or another. Probably a slight lean to Romney but definitely  to close to call.

[Minnesota Mike]

Complicating the process in Minnesota is the fact that they have apparently not yet completed redistricting (and might not before the first BPOU conventions).  As Minnesota neither gained nor lost delegates with the census, they may just use the old boundaries.

The Courts will release new redistricting maps two weeks from today. It will be a mess getting it organized but I do believe they will be using the new lines.

[Minnesota Mike]

Very, Very Preliminary Delegate Estimates:

Colorado: 
Santorum - 12
Romney - 11
Gingrich - 6
Paul - 4

Minnesota
Santorum - 18
Paul - 10
Romney - 8
Gingrich - 1

This is pure guesswork at the moment; I'll have a chance to do a more thorough analysis by CD tomorrow for something slightly closer to the truth.  For reasons discussed above, I am probably well underestimating Santorum's performance in Minnesota.

If the race is still being actively contested I don't see how Romney gets more than 1 or 2 delegates from Minnesota, In fact I bet he gets shut out.  My very very rough guess would be Santorum 20, Paul 17

[Minnesota Mike]

Paul won 49% in the city of Minneapolis so he almost certainly won the 5th CD.

http://www.twincities.com/ci_19920382

FWIW in 2008 the Paulites managed to get 6 of the 12(?) delegate spots from the 4,th, 5th and 6th districts (I think it should be 6 of 9 but the article says 6 of 12).

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2008/05/05/1603/beyond_mccain_ron_pauls_supporters_hope_to_reshape_the_gop

[Minnesota Mike]

Town results available here

http://www.mainegop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/me_gop_caucus_results.pdf

I Should total it by County and CD but I am not that ambitious.

[Minnesota Mike]

Thanks Erc for doing the math.

[Minnesota Mike]

Idaho

If a candidate gets 50%+ of the statewide delegates they get all the national convention delegates.

http://idgop.org/party-rules-on-pres-caucus/

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Since all but the top two candidates in each county are eliminated it would seem very likely that the statewide winner would get all the delegates.

[Minnesota Mike]

A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.

New York is using the old districts, with 2 Delegates WTA per old CD and the rest at large.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

Republicans really do have a screwy system of picking a president, you get the same amount of delegates for winning Charlie Rangell's district as for winning the most republican district in the state.

[Minnesota Mike]

BTW Erc, thanks for the research and posting the info.

[Minnesota Mike]

Oklahoma

Erc,

I think Oklahoma's system for awarding Delegates at the congressional level is a little different than what you posted

http://gallery.mailchimp.com/512354e730a88fee4fcc330f7/files/ORP_Rules___Amended_August_27__2011.pdf

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So if I understand the rules correctly if it's Santorum 49%, Romney 15%, Gingrich 15% then they each get 1 delegate. But if it's Santorum 50%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 20% Santorum would get all 3 Delegates. Odd system.

[Minnesota Mike]

Erc, I don't think you're reading the rules right. The delegates that would have gone to candidate who did not meet the threshold become uncommitted. It should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 5 (+5).

I believe you are correct.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/2012-republican-delegate-allocation_23.html

[Minnesota Mike]

Minnesota's 7th congressional district convention is also this weekend.

http://mncd7gop.com/Convention_Information.html

This should be Santorum's best district in the state, anything less than getting all 3 National Convention delegates would be a sign of trouble.

[Minnesota Mike]

MN 7th District convention elects 2 Santorum Delegates and 1 Paul Delegate.

https://twitter.com/#!/patandersonmn

This should have been Santorum's best district, he got around 57% in the straw poll.

[Minnesota Mike]

I looked this morning and found results... nowhere on Colorado. 

Kristen Wyatt ‏ @APkristenwyatt

From CD7: Pete Coors a pledged delegate for Romney. Other delegates: Anil Mathai (Santorum), Jeremy Strand (unpledged) #copolitics


CD7's alternates to the RNC: @libbyszabo (unpledged); Lloyd Garcia (unpledged); Robert Eskenberry (Ron Paul). #copolitics
13h Kristen Wyatt Kristen Wyatt ‏ @APkristenwyatt

[Minnesota Mike]

  It would not let me post a link to the gop site directly (too much lurking and not enough posting).

District assembly results

Santorum 6
Romney 5
Paul 0
Uncommitted 9

Though the alternates are majority Romney
Romney 10, Paul 4, Santorum 0, Uncommited 7

After listening to Paul supporters at work say they were going to claim a majority of the districts in Colorado, this has to be a setback.

Delegates to the Republican National Convention:
·         Congressional District 1
o   Nancy McKiernanm, Santorum
o   Celement Koerber Jr., Unpledged
o   Florence Sebern, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 2
o   Timothy Leonard, Unpledged
o   Sue Sharkey, Santorum
o   Solomon Martinez, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 3
o   Todd King, Unpledged
o   Luke Kirk, Unpledged
o   Frieda Wallison, Romney
·         Congressional District 4
o   Guy Short, Unpledged
o   Sean Conway, Santorum
o   Karen Pelzer, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 5
o   John Suthers, Romney
o   Robin Coran, Santorum
o   Kent Lambert, Santorum
·         Congressional District 6
o   John Carson, Romney
o   Ted Harvey, Unpledged
o   Erik Hansen, Romney
·         Congressional District 7
o   Pete Coors, Romney
o   Anil Mathai, Santorum
o Jeremy Strand, Unpledged

Alternate Delegates to the Republican National Convention:
·         Congressional District 1
o   Earl Bandy III, Unpledged
o   Elizabeth Buchanan, Unpledged
o   David Bittner, Paul
·         Congressional District 2
o   Jon Warnick, Unpledged
o   Bryce Carlson, Romney
o   Kaye Ferry, Romney
·         Congressional District 3
o   Nancy Carlson, Romney
o   Michelle Gilleland, Romney
o   Barbara Smith, Romney
·         Congressional District 4
o   Kendal Unruh, Unpledged
o   Jim Gaston, Unpledged
o   Justin Williams, Romney
·         Congressional District 5
o   Robert Balink, Romney
o   Charles Aligaen, Paul
o   Joseph Burke, Paul
·         Congressional District 6
o   Glenn Hagen, Romney
o   Ryan Massfeller, Romney
o   Jeff Wasden, Romney
·         Congressional District 7
o   Lloyd Garcia, Unpledged
o   Libby Szabo, Unpledged
o   Robert Eskenberry, Paul

FWIW if you can believe anything on the internet about Ron Paul the Vast majority of uncommitted delegates are for Paul. Secret Ninja Delegates to the end I guess.