How Democrats Fooled California’s Redistricting Commission
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  How Democrats Fooled California’s Redistricting Commission
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DrScholl
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« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2011, 10:30:24 AM »


Those lines were beneficial to Republicans, most of the gerrymandering was for their members.
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Torie
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« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2011, 12:29:06 PM »

Well, surprise, surprise, the article that I linked is being used by the Pubs to call for the CD map to be tanked. Is there really any chance of that happening? Er, no. The Pubs are calling for investigations and the like. Hey Pubs, your dropping the ball, and the commissioners being duped by clever Dems, is not a grounds to have the map tanked. It would be like having a verdict in a civil case reversed because you lost on the grounds that you had a suck lawyer represent you. That dog won't hunt. Get over it! You deserve what you got. Geez!
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Napoleon
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« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2011, 12:41:48 PM »

It doesn't really matter too much. Dems are still vulnerable to losing seats in a wave election under the new lines.

There's no evidence that there will ever be such an election.

Sure thing. Democrats are going to continue to win elections in California, and Californians are going to continue to put up with all the craziness the loons who dominate the party put into law. Roll Eyes The redistricting gives Republicans excellent shots of making net gains in the Congressional delegation and State Assembly.

It's been that way since the election of 1996. Last year, in the midst of a huge Republican wave, the California Republicans made no gains whatsoever. You tell me when it's coming.
This is the reason no wave hit last year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_congressional_districts#2002:_Bipartisan_gerrymandering
I would accept that argument if the Democrats hadn't gotten over 54% of the vote for State Assembly last November. It's not about the boundaries; California voters just have no desire to vote Republican.
Gerrymandering draws weaker challengers and therefore weaker results for the minority party, wave or not. Having an incumbent governor with pathetic approval ratings doesn't help the Republican cause much either.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2011, 01:23:58 PM »

Well, surprise, surprise, the article that I linked is being used by the Pubs to call for the CD map to be tanked. Is there really any chance of that happening? Er, no. The Pubs are calling for investigations and the like. Hey Pubs, your dropping the ball, and the commissioners being duped by clever Dems, is not a grounds to have the map tanked. It would be like having a verdict in a civil case reversed because you lost on the grounds that you had a suck lawyer represent you. That dog won't hunt. Get over it! You deserve what you got. Geez!

The legal analogy would be if one of the parties had been shown to have contacted the judge through an undisclosed intermediary. Democratic front groups may be one thing. Individual Congressmen having undisclosed groups is another.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2011, 02:09:54 PM »

The districts honestly look much better now than during the bi-partisan-mander monstrosity. Personally I see this just as liberal grass-roots organizations doing a better job of working the system, which is entirely fine and is one of the purposes of the public hearings (to give a voice to the various interests groups).


By the way one of my favorite sections of the article Tory cited:
"One woman who purported to represent the Asian community of the San Gabriel Valley was actually a lobbyist who grew up in rural Idaho, and lives in Sacramento. "
Who cares where she grew up? If this woman lives in Sacramento now that is what is important.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #30 on: December 22, 2011, 02:49:59 PM »

The districts honestly look much better now than during the bi-partisan-mander monstrosity. Personally I see this just as liberal grass-roots organizations doing a better job of working the system, which is entirely fine and is one of the purposes of the public hearings (to give a voice to the various interests groups).

Members of Congress can't properly be labeled "grassroots."

Quote
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If she claims to be a resident of "San Gabriel Valley" it matters that she in fact lives in government central.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #31 on: December 22, 2011, 03:17:37 PM »

The districts honestly look much better now than during the bi-partisan-mander monstrosity. Personally I see this just as liberal grass-roots organizations doing a better job of working the system, which is entirely fine and is one of the purposes of the public hearings (to give a voice to the various interests groups).

By the way one of my favorite sections of the article Tory cited:
"One woman who purported to represent the Asian community of the San Gabriel Valley was actually a lobbyist who grew up in rural Idaho, and lives in Sacramento. "
Who cares where she grew up? If this woman lives in Sacramento now that is what is important.
Am I the only Democrat willing to put partisanship aside and be objective? Sad

If she grew up in the SGV and now lives in Sacramento, she could claim ties to the community. Apparently she is just a puppet. But does anyone have any doubts that Republicans tried and failed to accomplish the same? Isn't this "their" commission idea? Smiley
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Torie
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« Reply #32 on: December 23, 2011, 10:38:31 PM »
« Edited: December 23, 2011, 11:00:46 PM by Torie »

I am going to put up my CA maps on this thread, because the purpose of the exercise is to evaluate the Commission's work, and if flawed, what partisan difference it made, if any.  I don't expect very dramatic differences actually, despite whatever it was the Dem manipulation accomplished. So to start, here is LA County, except for a few bits. No Pub CD's emerge, but that red CD, the Asian CD (CA-32) is but lean Dem (58.2% Obama). Yes, I chose the color "red" for the this CD deliberately. They appreciate the glories of the color red as much as I - strong, masculine, and just a fabulous accent color.  Go Asians! Smiley

I am thinking btw of adjusting the McCain partisan baseline in CA up by 2 or 3 points for PVI purposes by the way. CA just went bonkers over Obama in 2008, including yours truly. Stay tuned. So CA-32 might have a say 2%-4% Dem PVI, in other words lean Dem, but competitive, particularly if Asians trend GOP, and the tea leaves suggest that in CA that they might be going in that direction. The incumbent Chu should have no problems however.

It was fun drawing CD's in a part of the world that I actually know intimately. I know where the "communities of interest" are. I know where the lines of neighborhood council districts  are. I got particular joy drawing the eastern edge of CA-30,, where I know every block. This map was a celebration of both class and racial "warfare," so both parameters are met that the Commission was interested in. CA-30 must be one of the most wealthy CD's in the nation, if not the wealthiest.  And it contains the entirety of my real estate "empire" in LA County the way I drew it to boot.  Smiley

I will update this particular post as I complete more work, and finally do a compare and contrast, and render a final judgment. I am quite satisfied with my LA county lines, except possibly for the Santa Fe Springs, Whittier area. That may change a bit when the SD, OC, Riverside, and San Bernadino Counties are completed.

By the way, you can see how the formerly "black ghetto" has been gutted, and dramatically so, by demographic changes, as Hispanics move in, and blacks move out. There is but one "black" CD now (CA-37), about 45% black, which is about as middle class, as lower class.

 



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Sbane
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« Reply #33 on: December 24, 2011, 01:45:09 AM »



Here is how I would draw my map. First of all I adjoined Imperial county to SD.  Adding it to the Palm Springs area does not make sense since you need to go into Perris or Moreno Valley to get enough Hispanics. A map like that makes sense for the AD map since you don't need to cross over into LA exurbia. Then I only crossed over from SD county into Riverside County and not at all into Orange County, so only one county split there. In SBD and Riverside counties I drew two swing districts, with a dem lean. They both voted for Obama by about 16 points. Both districts voted for Brown by 7 points, but I bet Fiorina won both by a hair's breadth. Unlike most of urban California, in the IE Fiorina performed better than Whitman. Or it was more a case of Boxer being disliked more than Brown. The Riverside based district is 51% Hispanic and the SBD district is 53% Hispanic making them both Latino influence districts.

In OC I drew an Asian influence district at 36% Asian VAP. It's safe Republican and voted for Mccain by 2 points. Then I stretched the 37th into Huntington Beach. There is no way around it since OC has enough population for more than 4 districts. But before you start decrying it as a Democratic gerrymander, note that it actually voted for Whitman by about a point. Look closely and you will see Lakewood is included in the district and the ghetto parts of Long Beach are excluded.

In LA I drew the Asian district but did not include Glendora, which is not really that Asian, and it's not really the sort of place Asians will move to with it's mostly 50's and 60's housing stock. Instead I included the via verde neighborhood in San Dimas. I did not include Chino Hills to cut down on the county splits, but putting it in the Asian district certainly makes sense. It voted about 20 points for Obama. I also made one Black vs Hispanic district in the 35th and a Black district in the 33rd. Now the big question that remains is which district crosses over from LA county into Ventura. Do I do what the commission did and add Simi valley to the Santa Clarita district, or do I add parts of Thousand Oaks into the westside high SES zone district? Neither will make Republicans happy, but the positioning of Republicans in Ventura county is very inconvenient from a Republican perspective.
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Torie
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« Reply #34 on: December 24, 2011, 01:53:35 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2011, 02:48:21 AM by Torie »

It looks like you "lost" a 60% plus Hispanic CD in LA County, sbane.  I have six of them in LA County. Am I confused?  

I would have to see the whole map of LA County to comment. I was very careful to follow communities of interest lines, and class lines, and racial lines, with the VRA in mind. I did the best I could, and let the chips fall where they may. The Beach Cities CD slipped away, when it had to take all of Venice, and some Hispanic, Bohemian, Hollywood wanna-be, UCLA grad student, and independent minded undergrads who don't like dorm living precincts, just to the east of Santa Monica - a little pocket of left wing un-wealth. It was gone. Better areas for it had to go into the Hispanic CD down south. The end. It is amazing how that Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, La Canada, La Crecenta CD has become solid Dem now. It would have been Pubbie wonderland when I was a kid. But the, CA-30 would have been marginal - then (e.g., even then, West Hollywood was gay Smiley ).

Glendora is upper middle class Anglo (one of my pals lives there, an Anglo liberal Dem.  Smiley ). But the Asian CD had to go somewhere, and it was not going to chop further into SB County, and was otherwise totally boxed in. So it got about half or a bit more or so of Glendora. That was the nearest available town. Azusa is just so freaking Hispanic, which was most inconvenient. Absent that, and the map would have been much cleaner there.
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jfern
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« Reply #35 on: December 24, 2011, 02:18:58 AM »

All these Republican controlled states are ramming through extreme gerrymanders, that's perfectly fine, but when a Democratic state has a bipartisan commission, that's suddenly horrible.
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Sbane
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« Reply #36 on: December 24, 2011, 02:36:14 AM »

It looks like you "lost" a 60% plus Hispanic CD in LA County, sbane.  I have six of them in LA County. Am I confused? 

I would have to see the whole map of LA County to comment. I was very careful to follow communities of interest lines, and class lines, and racial lines, with the VRA in mind. I did the best I could, and let the chips fall where they may. The Beach Cities CD slipped away, when it had to take all of Venice, and some Hispanic, Bohemian, Hollywood wanna-be, UCLA grad student, and independent minded undergrads who don't like dorm living precincts, just to the east of Santa Monica - a little pocket of left wing un-wealth. It was gone. Better areas for it had to go into the Hispanic CD down south. The end. It is amazing how that Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, La Canada, La Crecenta CD has become solid Dem now. It would have been Pubbie wonderland when I was a kid. But the, CA-30 would have been marginal - then (e.g., even then, West Hollywood was gay Smiley ).

Yup, there will be two more Latino districts that will be drawn. One centered around downtown and of course the San Fernando valley.

I think the differences in our maps stem from you starting in LA, whereas I started in Imperial and SD. I'm trying to avoid pushing Socal districts into the central valley or the mountains. I think the only one that will be pushed outside Socal will be the coast district, which actually is fine from a communities of interest perspective.
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Torie
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« Reply #37 on: December 24, 2011, 02:58:40 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2011, 03:48:11 AM by Torie »

It looks like you "lost" a 60% plus Hispanic CD in LA County, sbane.  I have six of them in LA County. Am I confused?  

I would have to see the whole map of LA County to comment. I was very careful to follow communities of interest lines, and class lines, and racial lines, with the VRA in mind. I did the best I could, and let the chips fall where they may. The Beach Cities CD slipped away, when it had to take all of Venice, and some Hispanic, Bohemian, Hollywood wanna-be, UCLA grad student, and independent minded undergrads who don't like dorm living precincts, just to the east of Santa Monica - a little pocket of left wing un-wealth. It was gone. Better areas for it had to go into the Hispanic CD down south. The end. It is amazing how that Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, La Canada, La Crecenta CD has become solid Dem now. It would have been Pubbie wonderland when I was a kid. But the, CA-30 would have been marginal - then (e.g., even then, West Hollywood was gay Smiley ).

Yup, there will be two more Latino districts that will be drawn. One centered around downtown and of course the San Fernando valley.

I think the differences in our maps stem from you starting in LA, whereas I started in Imperial and SD. I'm trying to avoid pushing Socal districts into the central valley or the mountains. I think the only one that will be pushed outside Socal will be the coast district, which actually is fine from a communities of interest perspective.

We shall see. I still think you lost an Hispanic CD - my Carson wrap-around one, but yes, the population numbers to the south, could affect things. But not by much per my map. I have some leeway, and I know that when I did my earlier map, with OC and SD drawn, OC "wanted" to jut into Long Beach by a tad, and this map instead juts into OC, to take Seal Beach. But that is a swing of maybe 50,000 folks max. It's rather trivial. The line between SoCal, and the rest of the state is the Sierra Nevada Mountain chain, the Tehatchapis-grapevine (sp), and the LA County line on the coast. The population discrepancy, and the best fix, will drive the outcome. Yes, butting into Ventura County is acceptable, but so is sucking up some of Kern County. Or if the flow is the other way, then the Owens Valley is in play, appended to the Bakersfield CD. I doubt it will present much of a problem.

And here is an alternative that gets rid of the Glendora salient, "solves the Santa Fe Springs-Whittier issue sort of (but notice that CA-32 has to cross an empty zone to get down there that while not as much of a reach as going to Glendora, is a reach across an "empty zone" barrier, and into territory which CA-32 has less in common with potentially, and particularly over time, than going to Glendora does (I don't think Asians are planning to move down to La Mirada adjacent, and the more bourgeoisie parts of Whittier (once part of the Midwestern WASP Pub diaspora back when), anytime soon. The major "cost" however is a much deeper jut by CA-35 into OC, and a deeper just into the San Gabriel Valley by the presumably Anglo based CD in SB County. So it is probably not worth it on balance, even though it makes both CA-35 and CA-32 a tad more Pub. So it is not as if, if the Dems on the Commission demanded it, that I would just so "no."  Smiley

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Sbane
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« Reply #38 on: December 24, 2011, 03:33:47 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2011, 03:36:06 AM by sbane »



Here is the LA area completed. The gray district, the 26th, is a Hispanic district being 62% Hispanic VAP. The 35th that you can see in the previous map is also a Hispanic district with a Black influence. It's 54% Hispanic VAP and 21.1% Black VAP. Yes, your ugly u shaped district (sorry) probably does a better job of making the district more safer for a Hispanic, but at the expense of Black voters. Here I try to make everyone happy. The rest of the Latino districts in LA county are the 28th, 42nd, 34th and the 31st. So overall there are 6.

Turns out I didn't need to go that much into Ventura county. The 25th attains full population as long as you add all those areas north of the 118 freeway, and the 30th really should be a LA district, so the 27th has to go into Ventura County. The Ventura county district is a bit more Republican than what the commission drew and voted for Whitman by 5 points and Obama by 11 points. The city of Ventura is split and is added to the SB/SLO district, and about 50,000 people from SLO county will go into the Monterey county district. No districts split the northern county line of either LA or SBD county.
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Torie
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« Reply #39 on: December 24, 2011, 03:57:55 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2011, 04:19:31 AM by Torie »

OK, but that deep jut of yours into OC so that a CD that goes from Bellflower (well Lawndale, better) via Long Beach to consume that only all of Huntington Beach, but a slice of Fountain Valley, is just a deal killer sbane. The OC-LA County line is a pretty hard one, trust me (ignored by the Commission when it snapped up Westminster), and any cuts need to have a very compelling reason indeed. There is a very good case for consuming Seal Beach, and in a pinch, even that Los Alamitos gated Seizure World, if need be, since they both go to Long Beach for nearly everything (going south is this huge field of oil wells and strawberry farms and such, and navy stuff, and is probably a toxic waste dump), but that is about it.
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Sbane
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« Reply #40 on: December 24, 2011, 05:14:00 AM »



Here is a redo. I still like what I drew before, and this new map does not really accomplish anything other than keeping Huntington Beach out of a LA district. The net result is that the 37th which actually voted for Whitman, becomes a Dem district. The Asian district gets a little more Republican, about 17 points Obama and 7 points Brown, and the Asian influence gets reduced in the OC district. I also have to cross the Riverside-Orange County line which imo is just as bad as putting Long Beach and Huntington Beach together. A good thing that happens though is the SBD swing district becomes more Hispanic, going from 53-56%.

You should add all of Arcadia to the Asian district and think about adding the south hills neighborhood of West Covina as well. That way you don't need to dip into Whittier and La Habra and split cities there.
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Torie
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« Reply #41 on: December 24, 2011, 10:46:06 AM »

Ah, and give Glendora to the Pasadena, Glendale, Burbank based CD connected via the very steep face of the San Gabriel Mountains in lieu of the Asian contagion going there. And give South Pasadena and La Habra Heights to the Asian CD too, so that the Anglo WASP commie-lib CD can take all of Glendora, with which it has a lot in common (other than partisan preference). That is probably a good idea, although it is a 15 yard penalty play for the Pubs. You would have made a good Dem shill operative for the Dems sbane. Tongue
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muon2
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« Reply #42 on: December 24, 2011, 11:04:15 AM »

OK, but that deep jut of yours into OC so that a CD that goes from Bellflower (well Lawndale, better) via Long Beach to consume that only all of Huntington Beach, but a slice of Fountain Valley, is just a deal killer sbane. The OC-LA County line is a pretty hard one, trust me (ignored by the Commission when it snapped up Westminster), and any cuts need to have a very compelling reason indeed. There is a very good case for consuming Seal Beach, and in a pinch, even that Los Alamitos gated Seizure World, if need be, since they both go to Long Beach for nearly everything (going south is this huge field of oil wells and strawberry farms and such, and navy stuff, and is probably a toxic waste dump), but that is about it.

Are the county lines generally meaningful in SoCal or is it just that stretch of line you reference. I ask since sometime ago when I was drawing CA maps there seemed to be consensus that a district would have to overlap at some point. Is that better towards the northern end of the LA-OC border?
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Torie
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« Reply #43 on: December 24, 2011, 11:47:22 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2011, 02:27:19 PM by Torie »

OK, but that deep jut of yours into OC so that a CD that goes from Bellflower (well Lawndale, better) via Long Beach to consume that only all of Huntington Beach, but a slice of Fountain Valley, is just a deal killer sbane. The OC-LA County line is a pretty hard one, trust me (ignored by the Commission when it snapped up Westminster), and any cuts need to have a very compelling reason indeed. There is a very good case for consuming Seal Beach, and in a pinch, even that Los Alamitos gated Seizure World, if need be, since they both go to Long Beach for nearly everything (going south is this huge field of oil wells and strawberry farms and such, and navy stuff, and is probably a toxic waste dump), but that is about it.

Are the county lines generally meaningful in SoCal or is it just that stretch of line you reference. I ask since sometime ago when I was drawing CA maps there seemed to be consensus that a district would have to overlap at some point. Is that better towards the northern end of the LA-OC border?

Thanks to sbane's help, the map below I think presents the best OC-LA County cuts.  You can see how the cut in the south just takes in an area isolated by real estate largely devoid of people, and ditto the southern border there of the red tiger, which no longer reaches down to that problem child - Whittier. And CA-32 now moves up to 51.8% Asian, which is simply grand. It's perfect!  Pity that the Obama percentage is up to 59% now. And to think now heavily Dem S. Pasadena used to be this charming understated middle to upper middle class WASP Pubbie heaven.  Where have all the flowers gone?  One just can't have it all, can one?  Sad





And this looks even better!  Smiley  

I also fixed the borderland between CA-38 and CA-42 (the lime green CD), so that Maywood (a place you probably don't want to live in since it is the most down market of that band of former Okie white working class suburbs that did a near "perfect" job of keeping blacks out, and are now solidly to - in places - almost unanimously, Hispanic), and a little slice of Huntington Park, were put in CA-38. In exchange, CA-42 took part of unincorporated Florence.

That aspect of the map has been vexing me since I first drew it. I am vexed no more. Smiley The line re-jigling creates an "empty quarter" (a little Saudi Arabian reference for you) as a natural border between the two CD's. I mean what can be more empty than Vernon, which has about 35 voters, almost all of whom are on the municipal payroll, at vast salaries (or were - I think the state is trying to disincorporate Vernon).

And land greedy City of Commerce (that famed land of casino card clubs that have been there for about as long as Vegas has been separating folks from their money), while having a few more people, like a grand total of 3,500 voters, most of them are away from its southern edge (where the card clubs, with vast parking lots, and that former Firestone Tire plant cheek-to-jowl to the 5 Freeway, which looked like a medieval fort, and is now a retail outlet center behind the fort facade, are to be found rather than housing).   Yes, we wants to have empty zones as "natural" CD borders, yes we wants that little "precious" a lot.  Smiley



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freepcrusher
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« Reply #44 on: December 25, 2011, 04:17:29 PM »

. It is amazing how that Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, La Canada, La Crecenta CD has become solid Dem now. It would have been Pubbie wonderland when I was a kid.

yep. That used to be represented by Edgar Hiestand (a john bircher), H. Allen Smith and Glenard Lipscomb.
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Torie
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« Reply #45 on: December 26, 2011, 04:53:53 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2011, 09:19:17 PM by Torie »

Below is my completed map for the southern half of the state. I invite comments. I am not going to put up the partisan stats, least they bias one. Tell me where the flaws are from a VRA, community of interest and compactness standpoint, with minimum county and municipal chops, and how a superior product can be created. I think at the moment the map is flawless, and frankly inspired genius. Tongue Tell me how I am delusional about that. Smiley  Thanks in advance.

Oh yes, all Hispanic CD's are at least 60% Hispanic VAP - the lowest being 61.9% Hispanic VAP (CA-33). Addendum: Oh, I take that back.  CA-31 is 57.4% Hispanic VAP, and can be beefed up by trading territory with 75.6% Hispanic VAP next door CA-34, but it will break through some municipal lines and empty quarters, and make the map uglier and cross communities of interest. 57.6% Hispanic should be enough given that 22.8% are low voting Asians (they are low voting in that neighborhood), but I guess that could be discussed. The incumbent Becerra runs reasonably well with Anglos anyway (he went to Harvard Law School, and a lawyer friend of mine knew him quite well - he gets hit up for contributions by him all the time Tongue), and should have no problem at all winning a Dem primary there (that CD is not in play in the General  Tongue).

CA-43 is 57.4% Hispanic, but it can't get much higher without crossing into Riverside County, and trading territory with CA-42 (which is great from a Pub standpoint, but is not something that I think is appropriate, and don't think required by the VRA, since it is not as if the heavy Hispanic precincts live right on the county line with San Bernadino).

In due course, we shall have a detailed compare and contrast of this map with the Commission's one, putting under the microscope what happened, and try to fathom why.  

Addendum 2: At the bottom I put up the ethnic stats. Pale green is the color of an Asian "influence" CD, and lighter brown the same for Hispanics. As to partisanship, I will give you a hint. Other than CA-17, they are listed in the order of partisan preference. Tongue  

And yes, the two "whitest of white" CD's are also the wealthiest of those that I have mapped (right up there near the top of the nation), even if of distinctly different partisan preference. Smiley In fact,  more and more in Socal, and considerably more so than in the nation at large, if you're white, you tend to be rather high income. Down-market whites have packed their bags, and split, replaced by Hispanics.

And yes, I have dropped the Pub baseline in CA by two points, down to 44.3% McCain, splitting the difference more or less with the 4% and something Dem trend for the state as a whole in 2008. That probably does not obtain in the Central Valley, and may understate things in the prime snapback areas in CA in 2010, but I think that it is the best number overall for the state. I feel there is some Dem trend in CA, but Obama really juiced it up, and for the marginal CD's,  with maybe one exception (not to be disclosed at this time, since this is a CD I have not yet drawn, and I am just speculating), I don't think using a single baseline number will change the partisan odds much from trying to get more customized.







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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #46 on: December 26, 2011, 05:11:31 PM »

Must there be a district from San Luis Obispo to Santa Cruz?
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Torie
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« Reply #47 on: December 26, 2011, 06:15:28 PM »
« Edited: December 27, 2011, 12:06:14 AM by Torie »

Must there be a district from San Luis Obispo to Santa Cruz?

The city of San Luis Obispo is entirely within CA-23, not CA-17, and CA-17 does not take in any of metro Santa Cruz (just farming areas and agricultural Watsonville), but yes, there must.  It's trapped by mountains and the VRA, and where the roads go.
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muon2
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« Reply #48 on: December 27, 2011, 12:44:20 PM »

I'm slowly digesting the Torie map, and it's made harder in that I can't get the 2010 block groups for CA to load in my DRA 2.2 (2000 is fine as are all other 2010 states Tongue). One early observation I would make is that if one is worried about a commission tilted one way as they draw then one needs additional objective measures to constrain them. Communities of interest are very subjective, VRA districts are moderately objective, and political lines like counties and munis are very objective. So my initial test is to look at county splits that are not needed for the VRA.

On that measure I generally like the SD-OC-Riverside districts. Of course I have some caveats. Wink

In a muon world without the VRA I see the following. SD+OC+Imperial is about 46K under the number needed for 9 CDs and Riverside is about 80K over the count for 3 CDs. LA county is 22K short of the population for 14 CDs. I would see some of the Riverside excess go to an OC district, and then from 22K go from OC or the Inland Empire to LA. The remaining bits then can go to San Bernardino with Inyo and Mono and grab 28K from SE Kern. That makes 29 CDs in total.

I also know that VRA concerns will trump counties on occasion. For instance Torie's Asian CD-32 has to make a crossing into San B county and looks good, but without a working App I can't tell how much needs to come across.

I'm also concerned about the lack of an Inland Empire Latino CD. MALDEF drew 2 with 62%+ HVAP - one with Fontana/Ontario and the other linking San Bernardino to Parris. The Commission drew the first as well, but reduced the second to 50% HVAP. As Torie noted, his San B district only gets 57% HVAP, and no other breaks 50%. I'd draw the MALDEF districts and use that to justify any county splits in the Inland Empire and hopefully get rid of the little fragment of Torie CD-41 in Riverside.

More later ...
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Torie
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« Reply #49 on: December 27, 2011, 02:26:00 PM »
« Edited: December 27, 2011, 03:22:44 PM by Torie »

Muon2, I think the 2010 election districts will load, and I had the same problem and switched to those. Check it out.  

The cut into Riverside County by CA-41 is tiny by the way.  Something has to cut into it, since the only other cut is CA-48 into the middle class white part of Corona, and that cut is also mandatory, since CA-48 is walled in indirectly by the Seal Beach, OC County line, the Asian CD CA-32, and the Saddleback Mountains between OC and Riverside County, with the pass and the Freeway being where I cut into Corona. CA-43 and CA-26 can switch out precincts to make CA-43 more Hispanic, but it means another municipal cut into Ontario, and I wouldn't do it, but maybe it should be done. I will draw an alternative map that way. That will make CA-26 more GOP.  

The way I drew the map, I don't think another Hispanic CD is possible, without cutting into Riverside, and I agree with the commission that that should not be done. It not legally mandated, and enough is enough.

I drew two more CD's by the way. They are drawn about the only way they can be drawn given the VRA and the mountains, unless one does not mind erosity and more chops, and I do mind. CA-20 is 59.8% Hispanic VAP.


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